As far as supply chains are concerned, we are still "in" the midst of a pandemic. Supply chains will continue through 2022 amid the pandemic. The drivers of the surge in demand, the bullwhip effect, labor shortages, political agendas and elections, Fed policy, and oh yes… the rest of the Covid infection are all interconnected. Supply chain expectations in 2022 are a complex issue!
For 2022, I expect:
- Economic growth will continue, but at a slower pace to 2-3%
- By 2022, macro-level transport networks will "catch up" and normalize
- Less-than-truckload carriers are pushing above-average general rate increases while adjusting other tariff rules to discourage certain shipments, such as over-lengths. At the same time, carriers will add trucks and drivers wherever possible, creating a potentially competitive rate environment in 2023 or when the economy slows.
- FTL operators will see rate peaks before EOY in 2021. Higher contract rates introduced during 2021 will keep prices above multi-year averages, but rolling stock growth is expected to soften by EOY 2022 as new trucks are delivered.
- Small-package operators, already close to a monopoly, will see astonishing universal rate increases in 2022 after 2021. They are building the last mile network of the future and increasing profits for shareholders.
- Ocean carriers as a group have been the most disciplined during the pandemic, and they will continue to discipline themselves in 2022 by limiting volumes early and often raising prices. They just made too much money and it wasn't worth it. However, container traffic will normalize by mid-2022, which will allow restrictions to be cleared and return transit times to be more reliable. Don't expect interest rates to return to pre-pandemic levels...forever.
