Due to the unbalanced import and export situation, the shortage of containers in India is causing the cost of shipping companies and importers and exporters to rise sharply.
"The cargo volume of all routes has jumped in the range of 20% to 100%."
Mark S. Fernandes, director of the IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told the Business Standard: “Because customers are not ready to absorb price increases, exporters sometimes face losses.”
"Our situation is very helpless. The customer is not ready to pick up the goods, and the shipping company has increased the freight. So we have to bear the cost because the materials have been produced and need to be delivered."
An Indian exporter, who asked not to be named, said: “The market is completely crazy, and shipping companies have formed a business alliance to make up for the losses it suffered during the global blockade earlier this year.”
Although the freight rate of the container part has risen, if booking in advance, the availability of the container will be eased to a certain extent.
Now, exporters are planning to cooperate with shipping companies 1-2 months in advance to ensure that the goods are shipped on time. If the plan is better, there will be no major delays in obtaining containers.
Balmer Lawrie, Hyundai and Nathani are some of the container manufacturers in India. They started to produce these equipment in China at a very competitive price of US$1,000 per container, while the price of containers manufactured in India was US$1,800 to US$2,000.
Shipping companies can order more containers, but once the trade situation returns to normal, those newly ordered containers will become inventory.
Therefore, shipping companies are not keen to invest in new containers.
"It is not easy for shipping companies to survive. Operating costs have risen and trade has been hit as a whole. As a result, there are fewer flights and even have to empty ships, and fuel costs have risen sharply.
Due to the epidemic, if certain preventive measures are not taken, the crew cannot breathe a sigh of relief. The measures taken will take time and additional costs. The entire industry chain has cost burdens, not just exporters. "
At the same time, ports such as JNPT and Chennai are striving to maintain operational efficiency in order to control the cost of shipping and importers and exporters from the port side.
"The port's cargo growth, we are in a recovery mode. We will ensure that there will be no congestion in the port, so that no stakeholders will incur additional cost burdens," said a senior transportation official of JNPT.
A China-Europe Express platform company said that since the beginning of this year, the shipment volume of China-Europe Express Express has continued to increase, but the limited port operation capacity, coupled with the impact of border epidemic prevention and control and other factors, has caused a large amount of cargo to be backlogged at the port. "From the second half of this year, At the beginning, some ports experienced serious congestion. With the increase in freight demand at the end of the year, congestion has become more serious recently."
Against the background of "extreme" demand and lack of equipment, the price of freight transport by China-Europe railway has jumped fivefold . In addition, the backlog of containers on the border between China and Kazakhstan (Alashankou and Khorgos) prompted the temporary suspension of some westbound services.
GEODIS, a leading French logistics company, told its customers: “The space on the westbound is very tight. According to the availability of venues and equipment, delivery is accepted according to the company’s reservations. “Since the westbound service has a very large demand for space, we require Check all possible bookings one by one. "
With air and sea transportation restricted, railway traffic is approaching full capacity, and the delays on the China-Kazakhstan border have exacerbated traffic congestion. According to Rob Foster, business development manager for Norman Global Logistics Central and North China, the main problem is traffic congestion, not service suspension. He said that "the border has a large backlog of goods, and the railway transportation company cannot handle the volume of trucks." "In the first week of December, the westbound price per 40-foot high container ranged from US$6,000 to US$10,000, four or five times that of the same period last year. Shipping companies would not even guarantee to provide space at such a price. " "Serious shortage of equipment . " It is also a key issue , especially outside of China.
"By manipulating the ocean freight market, shipping companies have caused this problem to a large extent, affecting all services. For several months, airlines have been operating small ships, coupled with suspension of services, slowly forming pressure. Rail transport companies There are some containers, but there are still many containers that are leased."
He pointed out that in recent years, there has been an "explosive growth" in train services, which has increased from a few times a week to a few hundred times a month, putting considerable pressure on the railway network. In fact, taking Alashankou as an example, the latest data shows that this year's railway transmission volume has increased by 42% to 4,500 times, and the entire China-Europe railway network has sent more than 10,000 times.
In response to the current serious backlog of ports, the National Railway Group issued dispatch orders this month:
Dispatch order:
• Issued on November 22: From 22 to 25, shipments of outbound goods via Alashankou and Horgos except for the China-Europe Express will be suspended.
• Issued on December 8th: From 8th to 13th, all kinds of goods exported to Erlian and Alashankou will be suspended. If there are key materials, they must be reported to the National Railway Group.
• Issued on December 13th: From 13th to 16th, cargoes exported to Manzhouli, Erlian and Alashankou will be suspended (except for the scheduled train).
• Re-delivery on December 16th: From 18:00 on the 16th to 18:00 on the 19th, all kinds of goods exported to Manzhouli and Alashankou except for the scheduled China-Europe Express train will stop loading.
On December 12, the National Railway Group responded to the recent congestion of the China-Europe Express, saying that the port handover capacity has indeed declined recently, and some corridors have moved slowly. The National Railway Group said this is due to the approach of Christmas in the West. The demand is strong, and the epidemic prevention and control measures at port stations have been strengthened, as a result of factors such as bad weather overseas. The railway department has taken measures to carry out source regulation and deconstruction, and adopt phased capacity regulation measures; at the same time, implement capacity expansion and transformation at Khorgos, Erlianhot and other ports to improve handover capabilities; strengthen international coordination and cooperation. China National Railway Group stated that the above measures have effectively relieved port congestion. China National Railway Group requires that China-Europe Express trains will not be suspended or installed during this period.
The above-mentioned China-Europe Express platform company said that a train from China to Europe needs to be changed twice in the middle. The first time was when China exited the CIS countries or Mongolia, the standard gauge (1435) Cm) car plate, replaced by a wide gauge (1520 cm) car plate, the second change is to go from Russia westbound to Europe, and then change from the wide gauge car plate to the standard gauge car plate, the smooth operation of the train needs Close cooperation with countries along the way.
"Because the trains on the outbound journey are blocked at the port, and there are no trains on the return journey to pick up the containers, once congestion occurs, it will be two-way." The above-mentioned person said.
A freight forwarder engaged in the China-Europe freight train business in Central Asia also told a reporter from China Business News that the limited number of railway infrastructure and loading and unloading equipment in some Central Asian countries and the low level of dispatching are one of the important reasons for congestion. For example, the number of wide-gauge car plates in Kazakhstan is much lower than that of Chinese ports. After the car plates are dispatched to Europe, Kazakhstan's own ports face the problem of insufficient car plates.
Regarding the reasons for the increasing demand for China-Europe Express, an international logistics company said that under the impact of the epidemic, air freight prices have skyrocketed, and shipping companies have reduced the number of ocean freighters and the number of ports of call. The convenience and effectiveness are greatly reduced. Rail freight has become the choice of more and more customers. "Air transport capacity is limited, and freight is high. Maritime transport involves crew quarantine, cargo handling and other links, frequent personnel contacts, which were greatly affected during the epidemic. Many goods originally transported by air and sea were transferred to rail transportation, which led to the beginning of February this year. , The volume of China-Europe express trains continues to grow."
The data released by China Railway Group also showed that as of November 5, the number of China-Europe freight trains in 2020 has reached 10,180, which has exceeded the number of trains in the whole year of last year, transporting 927,000 TEUs of goods, an increase of 54% year-on-year. In November this year, the China-Europe freight train continued to operate at a high level, with 1,238 trains operating 115,000 TEUs, an increase of 64% and 73% year-on-year respectively, and the comprehensive heavy container rate reached 98.8%.
At present, many Asian ports are facing a serious shortage of containers. Most of the containers are stranded in destination ports in Europe and the United States, making it difficult to return as soon as possible. In the limited number of return containers, new problems have emerged.
South Korea’s Busan Port Authority (BPA) recently stated that empty containers returned to the port from overseas have not been cleaned and inspected as they should .
In response, local truck drivers complained that the shipping company neglected the inspection, cleaning and maintenance of the containers, and instead shifted the responsibility of maintaining the containers to them.
It is understood that from November 16 to 24 this year, BPA collected 30,792 samples of empty containers from 9 container terminals in Busan Port for inspection. The results showed that the condition of 52% of empty containers is not ideal .
BPA stated that many containers need to be cleaned again . In addition, insects such as cockroaches and spiders were also found in some containers .
More importantly, 59% of all return empty containers have defects . The defect rate of empty containers returned to the port by Korean domestic importers was 47.2%.
"This is because the shipping company did not conduct proper inspections before shipping containers to Busan Port." BPA said.
It is understood that since 2018, with the assistance of local fisheries departments, animal and plant quarantine agencies and customs, BPA has been paying close attention to the cleaning and damage of containers and conducting related investigations.
Investigations have shown that in many cases, the exterior or interior of the container is obviously damaged, and garbage is deposited. About 1.2% of containers had to be replaced because they could not be repaired.
At present, the shortage of containers in the Asian market is still severe, while more and more containers are stranded in American ports.
Major US ports, including the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, have generally experienced equipment shortages and extended loading and unloading times. Coupled with the serious container imbalance problem in Pacific trade, a large number of imported containers are backlogged in American ports, causing terminal congestion, container turnover, and cargo transportation.
This situation has intensified, making the local port "close to complete paralysis."
Although shipping companies are also trying various ways to seek various solutions to speed up the dispatch of empty containers, according to Maersk’s estimation, many countries around the world are experiencing national blockades due to the second outbreak of the epidemic, and the shortage of empty containers is expected to remain Will continue.
In 2020, global shipping logistics started as a nightmare due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, but at the end of the year it ushered in unprecedented popularity. The price of container transportation has been rising for several consecutive months, and the current freight rate can be described as "rising every day"...
The spot freight rate from Asia to Northern Europe is at a record high, and the annual contract price is expected to rise sharply. The impact of the new epidemic lockdown measures on sales, shippers have increased concerns about soaring freight and surcharges, which may lead to next year The wave of order cancellations.
Asia-Europe part of the freight rate exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and shippers face challenges in the Asia-Europe contract season
The freight forwarder stated that since Asia-Europe freight rates have increased by at least 5 times year-on-year, and the total freight rates of some goods have exceeded US$10,000/FEU, shippers are delaying or canceling shipments before the freight rates are adjusted.
The Shanghai Container Freight Index shows that in the week ending December 11, spot freight rates in Asia and Europe increased 24% from the previous week to US$2,948 per TEU. However, freight forwarders stated that the index reflects market conditions incompletely, and shippers’ quotations exceeded $10000/FEU.
A source said: "We are beginning to see customers canceling reservations because the prices are too high."
Shipping from China to the UK in January, the shipping company is now quoting 10,000 US dollars / 40'HC at sight, the source said: "I heard that the price is 13,500 US dollars."
In addition to the additional costs of shipping companies, including the increase in scheduled cancellation fees, freight forwarders worry that customers will refuse or fail to pay all the additional costs caused by the interruption of the supply chain.
European shippers are preparing for the upcoming contract season and have issued warnings to shipping companies that they will take further action if they try to maintain this year’s sharply increased rates.
The freight from Asia to Europe is as high as US$10,000/FEU, including various surcharges currently applicable to the industry. The Global Shippers Forum (GSF) said that due to “overpriced”, many shippers are currently not delivering goods at all. Small and medium-sized companies cannot pay additional fees.
GSF Secretary General James Hookham said: “The shipper cannot afford the various increased rates and therefore loses business.”
Freight rates in Europe and East Asia continue to rise
▍Maersk announced new fees in Europe and East Asia from December to next year
Maersk announced a new peak season surcharge (PSS), which applies to refrigerated goods from the Far East to Northern and Southern European countries. The surcharge will be $1,000 / 20' reefer container, $1,500 / 40' reefer container, effective from December 15th, and Taiwan will be effective from January 1, 2021.
In addition, since December 1, MSC has implemented PSS of US$500/20' and US$750/40' for all dry goods from the UK, Ireland, Northern Spain, Portugal and the Baltic Sea to the Far East.
In addition, MSC has adjusted the following rates starting from December 1, 2020 until further notice, but not exceeding December 31, 2020.
▍Hapag-Lloyd announced to increase the surcharge from Asia to many places in Europe
A few days ago, Hapag-Lloyd announced new prices from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean, which will take effect on January 1, 2021.
Hapag-Lloyd also issued a new general tax rate increase (GRI) for all dry containers, reefer containers, non-operational reefer containers, storage tanks, flat racks and open-top containers from South Asia and Northeast Asia to Australia , since January 1. Effective.
Southeast Asia to Australia
US $ 150/20'
US $ 300/40'
Northeast Asia to Australia
US $ 300/20'
US $ 600/40'
From December 7th, Hapag-Lloyd will implement another GRI for all goods and all types of containers from East Asia to the East Coast of South America at USD 550 per container.
At the same time, Hapag-Lloyd announced that it will postpone the GRI implemented in eastbound trade from East Asia to all destinations in the United States and Canada on December 1, and the new effective date is January 1, 2021.
This general rate increase is applicable to all dry goods, refrigerated cabinets, non-operational refrigerated cabinets, storage tanks, pallets and open top containers. Details are as follows:
East Asia to North America (United States and Canada)
US$960/20'
US$1200/40'
East Asia includes countries/regions in Japan, South Korea, China, China/Taiwan, China/Hong Kong, China/Macau, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, Philippines, and Russia’s Pacific Rim provinces.
In response to the current serious shortage of containers in the Asian market, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Habben Jansen recently stated that “the congestion of the port and the strong demand in the market have caused the increase in traffic to exacerbate this problem. This kind of tension will continue for another 6-8 weeks. It will be alleviated.” The pressure on the supply chain caused by the shortage of containers in Asia will continue for at least another 6-8 weeks, which means that shortages will still be faced in the next two months, which will also affect shipments before the Spring Festival.
Container freight rates continue to soar, reaching high levels far above the long-term sustainable level. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) set a record of 2131.71 points, an increase of 162% over the same period last year. After experiencing a sharp increase in freight rates that initially lags behind the Pan-Pacific region, spot freight rates in northern Europe have soared up 230% compared to the same period last year. Moreover, the freight quotation in Asia and Northern Europe has reached US$10,000 per 40-foot high cabinet.
According to the shipping index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange in the latest issue, the overall export container shipping market in China remains high. The freight rates of most ocean routes operated steadily, and some increased significantly, and the composite index rose. On December 11, Shanghai's comprehensive export container freight index was 2311.71 points, an increase of 8.6% over the previous period.
Asia to Europe (Far East Europe Mediterranean route) : Near the end of the year, the volume of the European market remains high. The recurrence of the epidemic has also stimulated the growth of local import demand and strong transportation demand. The lack of containers in the market also affects European routes. Strong market demand and severe equipment shortages are expected to continue after the Spring Festival in 2021.
Last week, the average occupancy utilization rate of ships in Shanghai Port remained at the full level. Affected by this, most airlines increased their freight rates sharply in the middle of the month, and the spot market booking prices rose sharply. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the European basic port market was US$2,948/TEU, an increase of 24.2% from the previous period. In the Mediterranean route , the market situation is basically the same as that in Europe, and the spot market freight rate has risen sharply. On December 11, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the Mediterranean basic port market was 3073 US dollars/TEU, breaking the 3000 US dollars mark, an increase of 28.9% from the previous period.
However, there is news that the actual freight paid by the shipper is much higher in order to ensure the container and the final remaining European space . Lars Jensen of SeaIntelligence said that there is anecdotal evidence that the exact freight paid by shippers on the Asia-Northern Europe trade route may be as high as US$5,000 per TEU. Jensen explained: “In this case, it’s important to note that in some cases, SCFI underestimates the actual freight paid because there are additional costs related to equipment and space availability.”
A British freight forwarding company confirmed to The Loadstar that the freight quotation in Asia and Northern Europe has reached US$10,000 per 40-foot high container . "It's crazy," he said.
At the same time, all carriers will raise GRI again on December 15 . The current extreme shortage of 40-foot high cabinets suggests that alternative alternatives will continue to increase in freight rates this week; it is worth noting that due to port congestion and limited land capacity, cargo to the UK is subject to many restrictions, and delays and operational problems are expected. Some carriers stopped accepting bookings sent to the UK.
Due to the strong demand for containers and the backlog in recent weeks. CMA CMA CGM notified that it will temporarily stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe, that is, temporarily suspend bookings for the 49th, 50th and 51st week Asia-Northern Europe routes. Another shipping company recently told Asia-Northern Europe customers that if the shipment is cancelled within two weeks after the shipment date, it hopes to charge a fee of US$1,000 per TEU.
Asia to North America (trans-Pacific eastbound route): The US epidemic is showing a trend of major outbreaks, with new cases hitting new highs in a single day. Severe epidemics have caused frequent port congestion and blocked transit. The problem of equipment imbalance in Asia continues, and supply and demand are severely unbalanced. Ningbo Port, ports in Southeast Asia and Busan Port are the loading ports with the most serious equipment shortages. The carrier's cargo backlog has become more serious, and it is increasingly difficult to book containers.
Last week, the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to West and East US routes remained close to the full load level. The freight rate is high and stable, and the spot market booking price is basically the same as the previous period. SCFI data shows that the spot freight rate from Shanghai to the east coast of the United States increased by 104 U.S. dollars to 4804 U.S. dollars per FEU, an increase of 91% over the same period last year, while the freight rate to the U.S. West Coast was basically the same at 3,984 U.S. dollars/FEU. Nevertheless, it has increased by 188% compared to the same period last year.
There does not appear to be any sign of slowing down in freight volumes to the West Coast of the United States. The Port of Los Angeles expects that containers will increase by 48% and 44% in the next two weeks. The Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals are under tremendous pressure due to the sharp increase in throughput. According to forecasts, the total volume of the Port of Los Angeles in the fourth quarter will increase by 40% year-on-year, exceeding 850,000 TEUs. Ships are waiting at the anchorage in San Pedro Bay for a long time. 6 days.
Jon Monroe of Jon Monroe Consulting, Washington State, said: "Consumer recovery is gaining momentum. Black Friday sales have grown strongly, up 21% from last year. If you have not ordered the goods shipped before the Lunar New Year, you may be too late. Up."
South American routes: The raging epidemic has affected the production capacity of South American countries, their dependence on foreign materials is high, and transportation demand has remained high. In this period, most of the average space utilization of ships in Shanghai Port is at the full load level. Near the middle of the month, most airlines increased their booking prices, and the spot market freight rates rose. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the South American basic port market was 5876 US dollars/TEU, an increase of 12.5% from the previous period.
In other routes, SCFI's spot freight rates have risen almost across the board. For example, the freight rates from Asia to South Africa rose 15% this period to US$2,289 per TEU, an increase of 130% over the same period last year.
The demand for multimodal transport services in Southeast Asia is on the rise, and shippers want to avoid the unstable air and sea markets.
According to a report by logistics giant DHL Global Forwardng, the new crown epidemic has increased cross-border road freight.
Bruno Selmoni, vice president of DHL and head of road freight and multimodal transport in ASEAN and South Asia, said: "It has quickly become an alternative solution for transporting goods in the region."
He added: "The new crown epidemic has also made road freight an important part of multimodal transport." He pointed out that the road freight market is expected to achieve an annual growth of 8% in the next five years.
He said that, in fact, although road freight was previously only used for shorter routes, it is now also used for longer routes. For example, earlier this year, DHL used trucks for customers to transport goods from China to Sweden.
Another laboratory equipment manufacturer previously relied on air and sea transportation, but during the COVID-19 crisis, freight rates continued to rise and turned to multimodal transportation, including truck transportation from Singapore to Thailand.
DHL said that traditionally, retailers and manufacturers need to sign a contract for each model, and the goods are passed from one operator to another until they reach the customer. But this can be "troublesome" because the seller is responsible for all logistics and paperwork.
Multimodal transport "simplifies the problem" by moving from origin to destination under a single contract or bill of lading.
Selmoni said that even before the pandemic, multimodal transport has been actively developed because companies "are looking for alternatives to improve transportation time, increase cost efficiency and reduce environmental pollution." For example, DHL launched a multimodal transport service connecting Indonesia and the ASEAN road network last year, connecting to Singapore by barge or air.
At the same time, another factor that promotes regional multimodal transport is the ASEAN customs transit system.
“The ASEAN Ministry of Transport has approved up to 500 trucks to obtain cross-border permits,” Selmoni explained. “With permits, goods can be transported from the point of departure to the destination by the same truck, eliminating the need to transfer goods to local trucks at the border. ."
He also said that the "China plus one" procurement strategy, although not only a result of the new crown epidemic, may continue to promote the growth of roads and multimodal cargo throughout Southeast Asia.
"As the company expands production bases outside of China to promote intra-regional trade, all ASEAN countries have had a positive impact on this strategy."
"In key markets such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar, which are connected through the established road network, this situation is particularly delicate, and it is expanding to Indonesia, Laos and China."
"China Post Express": This is the peak shopping and express season in the United States. Although express companies say they have improved the efficiency of land transportation, observers and consumers still believe that as the number of packages reaches unprecedented heights, delays are inevitable .
Recently, UPS announced that it will reduce its ground transportation time in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Seattle and Portland by one day. According to a report on the Loadstar website, the ground delivery time for the above-mentioned markets is generally 1-3 days. Since the first week of November, United Parcel has launched the "fastest ground transportation" upgrade service to create a service faster than its competitors. Therefore, the company has invested 750 million US dollars in advance and originally planned to invest next year. But analysts believe, express delivery companies are still unable to avoid speed courier companies due to excessive pressure and delay the knot fruit.
According to the above report, according to a report, UPS and FedEx have been coordinating the lack of transportation vehicles and seeking support from contractors to purchase or lease more vehicles. According to the research of LMCAutomotive Automotive Market Forecast Service, one of the reasons for the car shortage is due to the suspension of car production. In October, the number of new cars in the United States decreased by nearly 1 million compared with the same period last year.
Amazon, the e-commerce giant, is also struggling with the surge in the number of packages. Many customers have reported that it usually takes a week or more to send a package for one or two days. So Amazon encourages customers to choose other delivery methods instead of home delivery. Cathy Morrow Roberson, principal analyst at the consulting firm LogisticsTrends&Insights, believes that this means that Amazon cannot deliver on time by default. During the seasons, the time limit is never guaranteed. She noticed that as early as the beginning of the lockdown after the outbreak in the United States, the delivery company's service guarantee commitments had been suspended.
According to a report published by LateShipment, an e-commerce package tracking company, on the Loadstar website, according to the results of the United Parcel and FedEx delay survey, California has the longest express delivery delays during the Christmas season in 2019, with major express delivery delays exceeding 12% . During this year’s outbreak, the two major express delivery giants also experienced a delay rate of about 10% in key cities such as California and New York. Robertson predicts that courier companies may prioritize hot-selling and profitable categories, while other shippers who want to ensure that products are delivered on time will need to pay additional fees to large courier companies because they have no choice of crowdsourced delivery.
There are also some retail companies looking for other outlets during the outbreak. They cooperate with Instacart and DoorDash to provide same-day delivery services to their customers. Robertson said the demand for home delivery has risen sharply this year, while last year consumers were more inclined to place orders online and pick up goods from stores. It is expected that in the coming weeks, retailers will look for alternatives to large courier companies. It is reported that although the number of consumers choosing express cabinets has increased, Americans still prefer to deliver them to their door.
It is reported that the United States Postal Service will increase the price of transportation services from January 24, 2021, but it still needs to obtain the approval of the Postal Administration Committee, the postal price control agency. Among them, priority mail will increase prices by 3.5%, and priority mail express will increase prices by 1.2%.
The U.S. Postal Service stated that the increase in postal prices is mainly based on changes in the consumer price index, while changes in postal service prices are mainly adjusted in accordance with changes in market conditions. "In industrialized countries, the U.S. Post's letter service is cheaper. Unlike other carriers, the U.S. Post does not charge fuel surcharges and door-to-door delivery or traditional Saturday delivery surcharges. Therefore, the new regulations increase letter fees. It can maintain the competitiveness of postal services and bring in more revenue.
According to the CEP-Research website, the price of United Parcel and FedEx in the U.S. land transportation increased by 4.9% in 2021. Since December 27 this year, non-contractual customers of UPS in the United States have to pay an average of 4.9% more for the ground, aviation and international services provided by it. FedEx will increase most of the U.S. express and land freight charges from January 4, 2021, by 4.9%.
At the beginning of December, Pitney Bowes, a provider of e-commerce, transportation and mail service solutions in the United States, also announced that starting from January 3, 2021, US domestic parcels weighing no less than 1 pound or cross-border exports to 207 countries or regions Courier services will increase prices by 5.9%, and domestic return services will increase prices by 4.9%.
In addition, according to foreign media reports, there will be a huge winter storm in the northeastern United States, which will delay the delivery of UPS, FedEx and USPS .
For the owners of oil tankers and dry bulk carriers, this is a painful period. But there are also some bright spots in the haze of the maritime industry-not only the container industry is booming, but the freight rate of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has just reached the highest point in 5 years.
Last Friday, the Baltic Exchange assessed the freight of a very large gas carrier (VLGC, an LPG carrier with a capacity of approximately 84,000 cubic meters) at US$104,000 per day. This figure has risen from a low of less than $20,000 per day in July.
Last Wednesday, Argus carried out a higher assessment of VLGC freight rates on the Middle East-Asia route: US$107,000 per day.
Chart: Kofyin; until December 10
The stocks of VLGC owners are rising. In the past six months, the two Norwegian companies Avance Gas (Oslo: AGAS) and BW LPG (Oslo: BWLPG) have grown by 110% and 88%, respectively. Dorian LPG (NYSE: LPG), which is listed in the United States, is lagging, although it has grown by 44% during this period.
Chart: Fernley Securities
In order to gain insight into the factors that led to the increase in VLGC freight rates and whether the freight rebound has an impact , FreightWaves interviewed Scott Gray, an LPG freight broker located in Texas.
Gray is known in the industry as one of the co-founders of Waterborne Reports, a well-respected natural gas transportation intelligence company that was subsequently acquired by IHS Markit (NYSE:INFO).
U.S. exports unexpectedly rise
LPG (propane and butane) is produced through oil and gas production and refining processes. When the impact of the epidemic cut consumption in the first half of the year and oil prices plummeted, people worried that LPG transportation would be a terrible situation.
Theoretically, the lower U.S. production combined with the sharp decline in refinery output will reduce U.S. LPG exports. There are two main factors affecting VLGC freight: US-Asia and Middle East-Asia traffic. As the U.S.-Asia voyage is longer, the rate is more important. Therefore, U.S. LPG exports restricted by the epidemic will limit the spot price of VLGC.
But the facts have proved that concerns about US exports are unfounded.
Gray explained: "I want to say that the U.S. water LPG exports have not been affected by various sporadic events in the first and second quarters. If you look at the export graph, the graph will fluctuate, but it has a downward trend. Not big. In fact, I can even say that the average in the fourth quarter is better than the previous three quarters. We see 80, 82, 84 VLGC loading every month. I think this is a powerful system."
Gray said that unlike LPG in the Middle East (more from the refining process), LPG in the United States is produced through natural gas production. After the new crown epidemic, natural gas production has performed better than oil production and refining.
In BW LPG's latest quarterly conference call, CEO Anders Onarheim said: "Despite the decline in oil production, the U.S. LPG production has increased." Executive Vice President of Business, BW LPG Niels Rigault added: “The production of LPG in the US has proven to be more resilient in a low-price environment.”
Far East demand is very strong
VLGC's listed companies have highlighted the strong demand for Asia from China, Japan and South Korea in recent months. In Asia, propane is used for heating and cooking and plastic production.
On the industrial side, LPG is consumed by propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants. Some PDH plants only use propane as a raw material; others choose to use propane or naphtha based on price. In layman's terms, the propylene produced by the PDH plant is the precursor of polypropylene, and propylene is the precursor of plastic.
Considering the plastic packaging of all commodities used after the epidemic, the price of propylene is soaring. What followed was the pricing of propane in China. The value of propylene is at or close to a record level.
The greater the spread between US propane and Chinese propane, the higher the transportation cost, while still providing shippers with acceptable sales margins.
"This (Asian) demand keeps prices high. Gray said that when the price difference (priced with the United States) increases, the shipping industry will step in and get a share of the pie, which is why freight rates are now rising sharply.
Middle East exports and India imports
The transportation needs of LPG must be considered in conjunction with the export situation of the Middle East and the United States.
Due to the impact of the epidemic that has led to OPEC production cuts and refineries, the impact of COVID on Middle East exports is greater than US exports.
Gray confirmed: “Due to reduced refinery operations, production in the Middle East has decreased. Iran’s transaction volume has also declined. In January, Iran’s production was approximately 575,000 tons. In November it was 250,000 tons.”
A key development in global shipping demand is the increase in India's imports of American LPG, rather than imports from the Middle East.
Rigault said: “India started importing from the United States last year. The duration of the voyage is more than four times the duration of the Middle East voyage. India mainly buys LPG from the Middle East. But they also see the US price, so they can also buy American products.”
Gray is skeptical of the US-India trade that started in early 2019. "This is considered a new thing. A new route. But the Middle East market seems to have taken back part of it. They said'Don't be in my backyard' because it is next door. It is difficult for the United States to compete with long-distance freight in the Middle East on the basis of However, the Middle East can ship it to the United States. In addition, Indians also have contracts in the Middle East. For us, this is more opportunity."
Canal and dry dock supply restrictions
The two main constraints on ship supply: the congestion of the Panama Canal and the maintenance and modification of dry docks for LPG ships are also increasing freight rates.
As previously reported by FreightWaves, in the past two months, the speed of ships without transit reservations through the Panama Canal has slowed. Gray said: "We have seen that due to delays, the volume of shipments from the United States to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope has increased, which has led to an increase in freight rates."
The most important ship supply issue involves dry docks.
He pointed out: “There are currently 25-30 LPG ships in dry docks in Asia in need of repairs. I think about five years ago: all the newbuildings came in. Now, after five years, it’s like you bought one. The car must be brought in, and the boat must be maintained. All these people will go to the yard at the same time, thus tightening the market."
Outlook for the first quarter of 2021
How long can VLGC freight rate maintain the current high point?
In terms of dry dock, the freight tailwind will continue. Gray said: "In the first quarter, there were almost as many ships in dry dock as in the fourth quarter." According to Rigault, "23% of the global VLGC fleet will enter the dock next year."
In terms of freight, the volume in the Middle East may increase. OPEC plans to cut production in January. Gray certainly said: "It will have an impact at some point."
At the same time, Biden will assume the presidency on January 20. It is expected that Biden's attitude towards Iran will not be as tough as Trump. This may eventually increase Iran’s LPG exports.
The biggest unknown is the arbitrage spread between China and the US LPG, which will determine the volume of transactions on this long-distance route.
In terms of weather, if the weather in the United States is cold, the domestic demand for LPG heating will increase, but the warm weather in North Asia will reduce the demand, the price difference will be reduced, and the goods will be reduced. vice versa.
As my country's foreign trade exports gradually stabilized and improved, the lack of domestic export capacity has appeared in many places, and for a period of time, it has also been accompanied by a shortage of containers.
Recently, a 1℃ reporter from China Business News found that the main reason for the “difficult to find one container” situation was that due to the epidemic, the efficiency of container turnover was reduced, and the port congestion caused a large number of delays in shipping schedules, which further aggravated the return of containers. smooth. With the efforts of domestic container manufacturers in recent months, the shortage of domestic containers has improved, and the shortage of some ports has eased.
However, new container manufacturers dare not continue to expand production capacity. Because of the epidemic, market uncertainty continues.
According to the 1℃ reporter's further on-site investigation, the shortage of containers has stimulated the kinetic energy of new container construction in China, and the prices of raw materials and labor have risen. The ex-factory price of new containers will rise accordingly. For the high freight rates, it is the foreign trade companies that ultimately suffer the loss of profits.
Inefficient port congestion
On the afternoon of December 2, when the 1℃ reporter arrived at Shenzhen Yantian International Container Terminal, the containers were piled up like a mountain, and heavy semi-trailer trucks entered and exited in file at the gate: the first class trucks were fully loaded with the containers that were about to be exported and went through automatic inspection. The passage enters the terminal, and the other type is an empty truck, which enters the gate and exits after the airspace cabinet. Many large trucks are still lining up to pick up the containers.
Chinese exports with a major source of container in two aspects, one is emptying the old container port after unloading , the second is Chinese-made box business of new office box . According to statistics from China Container Industry Association, usually the storage size of empty containers at ports is about 4 million TEU (Twenty-feet Equivalent Unit, the international standard unit, a container with a length of 20 feet is the international unit of measurement), and the port unloads old containers. It is the main source of supply for export boxes in my country.
We have not yet seen data on how many empty containers are available in the yards of domestic ports such as Yantian Port, but statistics from the China Container Industry Association show that since this year, China’s major foreign trade container ports have unloaded old container stocks with export growth and overseas adjustments. Due to restrictions on the return of empty containers and other factors, the unloaded old container stock of the seven major foreign trade container ports continued to decrease from about 3.05 million TEU at the end of February 2020 to about 1.85 million TEU at the end of October, compared with the same period in the past five years A reduction of 26%.
Photo: Yantian International Container Terminal is located in Dapeng Bay, east of Shenzhen. Photo/Wu Mianqiang
At present, domestic export containers are still very tight. In addition to the fact that container transportation has broken the original arrival and delivery balance level, the decline in container circulation speed and port congestion are also one of the main reasons.
As the "barometer" of global trade, containers have a complete set of operating procedures. According to people in the shipping industry, taking shipping as an example, the port terminal is a transfer station for containers. Export companies book space and containers from the freight forwarder. After passing through the export customs broker, the trailer fleet consisting of semi-trailers goes to the terminal and other yards to pick up containers After the container is filled with cargo, it is sent to the port terminal for export. After the liner arrives at the destination port with the container, the local cargo owner arranges customs clearance, picking up the container, unloading, and returning the container to the terminal yard. After waiting for the local export company to book, pick up the container and load the cargo, the container will be transferred back to China by liner.
However, the lingering epidemic has affected the efficiency of the above-mentioned container operations. Overseas epidemics have repeated, and the efficiency of local cargo owners in customs clearance, container picking and unloading is low. The relevant person in charge of the Guangdong small appliance export company previously interviewed by the 1℃ reporter said that their company's goods are in the ports of European and American countries .
Affected by the epidemic, many countries have experienced labor shortages, especially port operators, trailer truck drivers and related logistics personnel.
Master Sun, a truck driver picking up cargo at the Shenzhen container yard, told the 1℃ reporter that the company’s overseas business divisions had a "labor shortage". The United States had just finished Thanksgiving and will enter the Christmas season, which will further increase labor. tension.
The China Container Industry Association recently issued an "Action Initiative for Enterprises in the Container Industry Chain to Work Together to Stabilize Foreign Trade and Promote Growth", which stated that "Due to the increase in the number of infected people and the requirements of epidemic prevention measures, shippers (from across the ocean) cannot normally get from ports. The goods are shipped out of the cargo yard, and some goods are even rejected after arriving at the port. This has caused more and more containers to be piled up in disorder at the port. This disordered storage has caused the shipping company’s ships to be unable to dock and offshore on schedule. Affected the turnover efficiency of containers."
"From a global perspective, the supply chain of container transportation has slowed down. This is also one of the important factors that have caused global container tension." said Zhao, who has been in the shipping industry for more than ten years. Therefore, ports are definitely better than Congestion in the past was inevitable.
The prevention and control of the epidemic has also reduced the efficiency of domestic container operations. Lao Zhao recently told reporters at 1℃ that after the liner arrived at the domestic port, compared with the non-epidemic period, the quarantine process and procedures have increased. For example, the container needs to be disinfected, which leads to a longer time for customs clearance and unloading. "The crew cannot go ashore. It needs to be isolated and rotated first."
Port congestion will lead to adjustments in shipping schedules and affect the efficiency of container transportation. Since the third quarter of this year, the Ocean Network Express (ONE) of the TA Alliance has continued to update the schedule adjustment notice on its official website. The reporter at 1℃ found that most of the reasons were caused by port congestion.
From December 1st to 4th, ONE continuously issued more than 20 notices regarding the Shanghai Port shipping schedule changes or late opening notices, mostly due to "the effect of port congestion causing delays in shipping schedules." In the past November, there were more cases of ship delays due to port congestion. ONE is a Japanese container shipping company headquartered in Tokyo and Singapore. It was established as a joint venture by a Japanese shipping company in 2016, with a fleet of over one million TEUs.
"Once there is congestion in the port, the operation efficiency of containers will be low, which will further aggravate the tension of container use." Lao Zhao said.
As the international container ocean trunk transportation hub port in South China, Yantian Port is one of the world's largest single-handle container terminals. It mainly serves routes exported to Europe and the United States. Nearly 100 liner routes reach Europe, the United States and other regions every week. The 1℃ reporter found on the scene that the port was busy, and the gates were still slightly crowded. Many large trucks stopped at the door and waited for the relevant procedures to be completed, while the large trucks that had already lifted their cabinets slowly pulled out of the cracks.
Cost rises, logistics prices soar
The shortage of domestic export containers has caused the single-container market price to soar. As the order volume of container manufacturers increases, the cost of raw materials and labor has increased. In addition, the shortage of shipping space has further increased the cost of export containers for enterprises, increasing the logistics cost of the foreign trade industry and eroding the profits of export enterprises.
In fact, more than 90% of global containers are currently supplied by Chinese companies. According to the research report of Dongxing Securities, on the container production side, CIMC (CIMC, market share of 44%), Shanghai Universe (DFIC, market share of about 24%), and Xinhuachang (CXIC, market share About 13%), Singamas (about 3% market share) occupy most of the market share.
According to data released by the China Container Industry Association, there are three main types of container buyers. One is shipping companies, the other is container leasing companies, and the third is domestic railway and logistics companies . The third category accounts for a very low proportion, not exceeding all. 8% of annual container production and sales. The total production and sales of China's container manufacturers are between 2 million and 3 million TEU each year, and the storage of new containers accounts for 10%-20%.
1℃ reporters interviewed shipping companies and container manufacturing companies in many ways and learned that in the first five months of this year, China’s container manufacturers had almost no new orders. The pessimistic judgment of China has reduced liner shipping capacity and container procurement plans.
However, after June this year, my country's foreign trade quickly recovered. After the empty containers at the port were digested, the information of the lack of containers in the market was transmitted to the container manufacturers in mid-July, and orders continued to increase. "In September, our order volume has been scheduled to March next year." A person from CIMC Group who did not want to be named told 1℃ reporter.
"As a container equipment provider, we mainly produce according to shipping company orders. The shipping industry is currently booming and freight prices are rising. Therefore, shipowners and container leasing companies are also willing to purchase large quantities of containers." Liu Meng, a senior employee of a major domestic container manufacturer (Pseudonym) said.
Continued hot container production orders have caused the price of raw materials in the container supply chain to rise, including raw materials required for container production such as steel, wooden floors, and paint.
Insiders of Singamas Containers told 1℃ reporters that according to their understanding, steel, wood floors, and paint have all increased in varying degrees since the beginning of this year. "Compared with the off-season in the first half of this year, the price of steel has increased by about 10%, and the current average is more than 4,000 yuan per ton, and the wood floor has increased by 50% year-on-year." A relevant person in charge of a container manufacturer told 1℃ reporter.
The number of container floor sales is consistent with the trend of China's container export volume. In the raw material sector, the shortage of wood flooring is the most obvious, so prices have also increased significantly.
Kangxin New Material (600076.SH) is the only listed company in China that is mainly engaged in container floor panels. The company’s securities department confirmed that its finished product prices this year have exceeded the same period last year, "because of the increase in raw material and labor costs."
The main raw material of the container floor is logs. A domestic container bottom plate supplier told the 1℃ reporter that the current price of wood has increased significantly, and the purchase price of better poplar wood ranges from 800 to 1,000 yuan, which is more than 50% higher than when the market was normal. In the case of shortage, if the price is not increased, the timber merchant will not deliver the goods to the transaction."
The increase in supply chain costs has also driven up the selling prices of container products . A few days ago, a reporter from 1℃ asked CIMC insiders about the order status in the name of the leasing company. The salesperson of the other party said, “Orders are very slow now, and they need to wait until March next year to deliver them, mainly now (production orders). Don't go in."
The above-mentioned sales staff stated that the current order volume of the company is mainly unified at the head office level. “The selling price of 20-foot container (standard box) is now US$2,600, 40-foot container (high container) is US$4420, and 40-foot container (flat container) is 4210. Around the dollar."
Compared with last year, the price of new boxes between US$1600 and US$1700 has increased significantly. According to the research report of Dongxing Securities, in August this year, the price of a new container was only US$2,100.
"The epidemic is a double-edged sword, both an opportunity and a challenge." Recently, Lao Zhao said. Most of the foreign trade companies that have survived now have received many foreign orders, but at the same time they have encountered high freight costs caused by the shortage of containers and the shortage of space.
"Many of our company's customers, currently doing foreign trade orders, are not making enough money to pay for sea freight. Examples of this are everywhere. Even if they lose money, they still do it because they have a long-term vision and want to maintain good customers first. In the future, the freight rate will be lowered and then the profits will be made back." A business executive who has been a freight forwarder in East China for 10 years told 1℃ reporter.
I dare not rush to expand production after receiving orders in the first quarter of next year
On the evening of December 2, a 1℃ reporter came to the container production workshop of Dongguan South CIMC Logistics Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "South CIMC"), a subsidiary of CIMC Group, Fenggang Town, Dongguan City. A scene in full swing.
This is one of the largest container production bases in the country, and it is said that 1 out of every 10 containers in the world goes to sea here.
Worker Master Wang (pseudonym) had just left work and was riding a battery car to go home. He told the 1℃ reporter that the factory orders are currently full and he worked 11 hours that day. "Our factory is now operating in two shifts and is producing at full capacity," a person close to Southern CIMC told 1℃ reporter.
Since the third quarter of this year, as CIMC's order volume continues to increase, Master Wang has many colleagues who come to help temporarily. The 1℃ reporter learned during an interview with Southern CIMC that the plant has added many new temporary workers this year. “Most of them are labor dispatch employees, and the average daily salary of each person is 300 yuan, which is tens of thousands of yuan a month.” A labor dispatch company who recruited welders in a container factory of CIMC Group introduced.
"The main reason is that the container manufacturing industry is deeply affected by the shipping industry. When the market is good, the number of orders will increase, and if the production is at full capacity, there will be a shortage of manpower; when the market is not good, the number of orders will decrease, and manpower will be sufficient or even surplus. "The above-mentioned CIMC insider told the 1℃ reporter that many CIMC people (employees) still have fresh memories of the experience that factories were shut down during the financial crisis in 2008 and that they were looking forward to working at home.
On December 3, regarding the current shortage of containers and soaring freight rates in the field of foreign trade and logistics, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce Gao Feng said that on the basis of the preliminary work, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to promote the increase of capacity and support the acceleration Container return transportation, improve operation efficiency, support container manufacturing enterprises to expand production capacity, and at the same time increase the intensity of market supervision, strive to stabilize market prices, and provide strong logistics support for the stable development of foreign trade.
Recently, the China Container Industry Association has also issued an initiative to "advocate container industry chain enterprises to actively invest in stabilizing foreign trade", and strive to improve the efficiency of international container turnover. Production-related enterprises should continue to improve production efficiency, continue to tap potential production capacity, and improve process equipment. Increase the number of workers, improve their labor skills, and make every effort to ensure that new box orders are delivered as soon as possible.
Affected by the current shipping situation, many large domestic container manufacturing companies are making every effort to ensure the delivery of new container orders as soon as possible to escort foreign trade exports, while also considering the future balance of supply and demand in the global container market.
In fact, the container manufacturing and sales industry and the development of the shipping industry share each other. Nowadays, aspects of container production enterprises are operating at full capacity ensure market supply; on the other hand below the epidemic, we still dare to expand production capacity.
People in the shipping industry predict that the shortage of containers will continue until the first quarter of 2021. Therefore, there are already large domestic container companies that dare not rush to take orders for the second quarter of next year.
"The main reason is that I dare not judge the future market prospects." Liu Meng told the 1℃ reporter that the current epidemic situation continues and container manufacturers are also worried that after receiving external orders, they cannot judge the future market development. If the order is received first next year Quarterly, the supply can be guaranteed, and the market will not be turbulent at the same time, so everyone hopes to have such a steady move.
"Now that the market is in short supply, we can completely launch capacity projects, purchase equipment, and let workers work overtime to produce, but in the long run, this will break the balance of supply and demand in the global container market." Liu Meng said that the demand for containers in global trade is only There are several million TEUs, once container overcapacity occurs, it will be a serious problem.
The current life span of containers is 10-15 years. "After the rapid one-time release of production capacity, what about next year or the next year? The development of the industrial chain still requires a long stream of water." Liu Meng told the 1℃ reporter.
Near the end of the year, the peak freight season continued to be hot, and the market freight rates continued to rise.
Especially in the European market, the demand for cargo volume remains high. At the same time, the recurrence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has also stimulated the growth of local import demand.
At present, the average space utilization rate of ships exported from Shanghai Port to Europe has basically remained at the full space level, driving the market booking price to rise sharply.
The latest Shanghai comprehensive export container freight index
According to the Shanghai Composite Container Freight Index (SCFI), on December 11, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) from Shanghai to the European basic port market was US$2,948/TEU, a 24.2% increase from a week ago. Compared with the US$1,508/TEU a month ago, it has nearly doubled.
The freight rate of US$2948/TEU on the Asia-Europe route is the highest level in history since SCFI was released in 2009.
2018-2020 SCFI Asia-Europe route freight trends
The rate of the Mediterranean route has increased even more. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the Mediterranean basic port market was 3073 US dollars/TEU, a 28.9% increase from a week ago.
Some industry analysts believe that the actual freight rate of some goods on the Asia-Europe route is higher.
Lars Jensen, CEO of SeaIntelligence Consulting, an industry authoritative consulting firm, believes that SCFI may seriously underestimate the actual freight rate in some cases because it does not consider the additional costs associated with containers and spaces.
He said that anecdotal evidence has shown that in Asia-Europe routes, the actual freight rate of some goods has reached as high as US$10,000/FEU.
The continuous period of high cargo volume, soaring freight rates, port congestion and shortage of containers have increased the risk of supply chain rupture, and more and more liner companies are controlling bookings.
Hapag-Lloyd has announced that due to severe container shortages, until the end of December this year, it will no longer accept 40-foot reefer containers from terminals in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. In addition, the empty container of 40-foot ordinary container in Hamburg, Germany is not accepted.
This means that bookings in these countries will be affected.
In addition, Maersk and ONE also indicated to the media that before the New Year, they will have to reduce their bookings in Asia.
Faced with criticism that liner companies’ reduced bookings will affect shippers’ shipments, the World Shipping Council, headquartered in the United States, stated: “No one can predict the surge in demand for container shipping this year. see."
The organization believes that the solution to current problems lies in continuous communication between the carrier and the shipper. To restore the entire transportation system to a balanced state, all parties must work together to spend this critical period together.
