Thousands of containers from buyers are stuck in the port! Export orders are hot until March next year, but delivery is difficult!

my country is the largest producer, exporter and consumer of toys. At the beginning of this year, affected by the epidemic, Guangdong toy companies lost a large number of foreign orders. The pressure on the industry was huge. Since the second half of the year, the entire industry has continued to pick up, and some companies even have "exports". The situation of “explosive orders”.

But the good and the bad are mixed. Due to the shortage of containers, a large backlog of goods has caused difficulties in delivery. Thousands of containers filled with toys ordered by overseas toy retailers before Christmas are still stuck in ports!

Hot toy export manufacturers' orders will be scheduled until March next year

In a building block factory, the person in charge told reporters that under the epidemic this year, their sales have not fallen but increased. The 5000 square meter factory has been transformed into fully automated production. In the past, more than 200 workers were required to work at the same time, but now they have replaced it. 32 robots work overtime 24 hours a day .

In this toy company in Chenghai District, Shantou City, Guangdong, the reporter saw a busy scene on the production line. The person in charge said that the epidemic did have some impact on them at the beginning of the year, but since April and May, the order volume began to rise. At present, they are running at full power and producing 24 hours a day, but they still cannot meet the needs of overseas customers, and some products are "out of stock".

Thousands of containers from buyers are stuck in the port!  Export orders are hot until March next year, but delivery is difficult!

 

The person in charge of another toy company that mainly sells overseas said that they did not anticipate the rapid recovery of orders. Due to the shortage of manpower, this year's orders could not be delivered in time for the year before, and new orders for next year are still being found. .

 

Thousands of containers from buyers are stuck in the port!  Export orders are hot until March next year, but delivery is difficult!

According to data provided by the China Toys and Baby Products Association, due to the impact of the epidemic, the monthly export growth rate of Chinese traditional toys was negative from January to June this year. Starting from July, the monthly export growth rate has turned negative to positive, reaching 21.1%, exports from January to October reached 26.36 billion US dollars, and the cumulative growth rate turned negative to positive, reaching 1.4%. In November, it maintained sustained growth, with exports of 3.89 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 50.8% year-on-year, the largest single-month increase since this year.

Busy production and delivery toy manufacturers are mixed

Toy exports continued to rise, and toy factories received soft orders. At the same time, manufacturers had new troubles.

The reporter saw in a toy factory in Dongguan, Guangdong that there were many products to be shipped stacked in the factory, and only one truck was being loaded. The person in charge said that their customers are mainly large supermarkets and brand toy factories in Europe and the United States. They had to load 30 or 40 cars a day during the peak period. However, the current shortage of containers and the continuous increase in order volume, they are busy with production and worry about delivery. .

Thousands of containers from buyers are stuck in the port!  Export orders are hot until March next year, but delivery is difficult!

Guangdong has a large number of toy companies, with production capacity accounting for more than 70% of the country. The reporter found during a visit to many toy factories in Guangdong that the current export-oriented companies have encountered a shortage of containers. "Lack of containers" is the most common discussion among toy owners. topic. Yuan Moumou is the warehouse supervisor of a toy factory. When the reporter followed him to the warehouse, he found that a large amount of inventory was waiting to be shipped, and even the products produced in April had not been shipped.

Thousands of containers from buyers are stuck in the port!  Export orders are hot until March next year, but delivery is difficult!

The reporter learned during the interview that the current foreign trade toy factories are experiencing varying degrees of product backlog, and the uncertainty of overseas epidemics has slowed the circulation cycle of containers. The Jumbo Group, the largest toy retailer in Greece, said recently that due to the new crown epidemic, thousands of containers full of toys ordered by them in the months before Christmas are still stranded in the port.

Significant increase in export orders from auto parts factories! Orders skyrocketed by 100%, and orders are scheduled until April next year!

Beginning in September this year, the export value of auto parts has reached a new high for three consecutive months. In November, the export of auto parts increased by 41.9% year-on-year. According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in November this year, the export value of auto parts was 5.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.8% month-on-month and 41.9% year-on-year.

The export orders of auto parts factories have increased greatly, and the full production capacity is too late to ship! A person in charge of a wheel production plant in Jinhua, Zhejiang said that all production lines of the plant are operating at full capacity. Due to the substantial increase in export orders this year, one plant is still too busy to produce. Starting from the second half of the year, export orders have grown relatively fast. In the third quarter, compared with the same period last year, it increased by about 50%. In the fourth quarter, we increased by about 100%.

Thousands of containers from buyers are stuck in the port!  Export orders are hot until March next year, but delivery is difficult!

In another factory in Taizhou, Zhejiang that produces automobile shock absorbers, workers are working overtime and production is busy. The person in charge of the company told reporters that the orders received so far have been scheduled to April next year. In the early stage of the epidemic, in March, April and May, our orders were reduced by a certain percentage compared to 2019. Since July, the proportion of orders received has increased by nearly 126%. After August and September, it has increased by about 50% every month.

Thousands of containers from buyers are stuck in the port!  Export orders are hot until March next year, but delivery is difficult!

During the interview, container trucks continued to come to the factory to pick up goods. There were many products waiting to be shipped on both sides of the roads of the factory. The warehouse was also full. Due to the large number of orders this year and the shortage of export containers, many products have not had time to ship.

Thousands of containers from buyers are stuck in the port!  Export orders are hot until March next year, but delivery is difficult!

Yang Fudong, Special Assistant to the Secretary-General of the After-sales Parts Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that more than 70% of China's auto parts exports are used in the independent after-sales market of automobiles. The automotive after-sales market has grown very fast in recent years. The increase in car ownership and the increase in car service life will drive the demand for auto parts. The longer the service life of the car, the faster the replacement frequency of auto parts.

Continued high freight rates and shortage of containers, DHL&Hapag-Lloyd: The container market is expected to be in the second half of 2021

If shippers and logistics companies hope that the ultra-high shipping container prices will fall in the New Year, then they may be disappointed.

 

Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, revealed at a press conference that global logistics giants and container liner companies expect that the chaotic market, lack of berths, and container shortages, etc., will still be available by 2021. Will last for a while.

 

In addition, Tim Scharwath, CEO of freight forwarding giant DHL Global Freight Forwarding, also attended the meeting. What the two CEOs have in common is that they agree that 2020 is characterized by great unpredictability, such as promising customers whether their goods will reach their destinations on time, which is very unpredictable.

 

 

 

As time goes by and the year is coming to an end, shippers have to pay more and more freight to ship the goods. This development is largely due to the sharp increase in demand month by month since July. For example, it is not uncommon to have to pay US$5,000 for shipping containers from Hong Kong to New York.

 

▍It will not stabilize until the second half of 2021

 

The two executives agreed that after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia this spring, the very special environment has caused a historic imbalance between supply and demand. They also believe that the shipping market will not stabilize for the time being.

 

Scharwath said: "As for shipping, I think we must enter the second half of 2021 before we see the market stabilize again. The first quarter will definitely be affected, and so will the second quarter."

 

"We will have to wait and see what happens, because everything is difficult to predict. As a large company, we usually make plans for 3 to 5 years. Now, we are making plans for 3 months."

 

 

 

Inadequate ship capacity and insufficient containers have serious consequences for the industry’s supply chain. In addition to customer dishonesty and record high freight rates, a recent survey conducted by Sea-Intelligence shows that only half of the ships can reach their destinations on time .

 

▍Shipping companies strengthen management and control

 

Mainly affected by the new crown epidemic, container shipping companies’ performance in the second quarter was weak, but their profits have soared to record levels since the summer. However, the quality of service is lacking, and container shipping companies have been stating for months that these conditions are beyond the scope that they can change.

 

On the one hand, they do not have more ships to deploy, on the other hand, they cannot redistribute the containers to the required ports. In addition to other reasons, customers do not return the goods.

 

Currently, Asia in particular is suffering from a shortage of containers because many containers are in the United States. According to a Bloomberg report, it may also be because of port congestion that these containers cannot be unloaded at US ports. This is the case with 20 container ships currently near the Port of Long Beach.

Therefore, at the beginning of December, CMA CGM, Maersk and ONE had to refuse to leave the booking outside of Asia, the reason is very simple, because there is no extra space on board.

 

Hapag-Lloyd, led by Habben Jansen, also benefited from the increase in freight rates in recent months. Therefore, the shipping company has twice raised its full-year 2020 profit forecast, and the company currently expects its operating results to exceed US$2.7 billion.

 

However, the CEO said that it is usually because of an oversupply of ships, and 10 years after the industry has lost billions of dollars, it is time for container shipping companies to start making money.

 

 

 

▍Strong performance in the second quarter of next year

 

Until recently, shipping companies and container manufacturers also predicted that the current shortage of containers will be resolved after the Chinese New Year in February, which will restore the market to a more normal state. But Habben Jansen no longer believes this prediction is correct.

 

"This year’s development is beyond everyone’s expectations. Because of the introduction of economic stimulus measures, people still have money on hand, and most of the money has been spent on container cargo. Many signs indicate that the strong market we see after the Spring Festival has passed. It will appear and will continue into the second quarter."

 

Habben Jansen pointed out that the current market congestion will take some time to resolve.

Orders have skyrocketed, but profits have fallen instead of rising? High freight costs torment Chinese exporters!

When the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, telecommuting and home isolation have become the norm. The suspension of offline transactions in the past has accelerated the shift of international trade to online. In this context, China's foreign trade exports have accelerated recovery, especially the rapid increase in cross-border e-commerce orders.

Recently, the "home economy" related products represented by furniture, home appliances, toys, and daily necessities have continued to explode. China’s small commodity export orders have surged, and many manufacturers’ orders have already been scheduled to 2021.

Correspondingly, due to the imbalance of China's import and export trade, container shipping export freight rates remain high, and containers are "difficult to find". These problems have become more prominent under the stimulation of huge transportation demand.

The explosive growth of export orders and thorny transportation problems have put Chinese exporters facing tremendous pressure and challenges.

Export orders soared, shipping costs soared

"This time of the year is the peak season. In previous years, the factory was very busy and the number of offline purchases was countless. This year, affected by the epidemic, almost all of them have adopted online ordering." Wan Rufang, general manager of Zhejiang Fengfan Stainless Steel Products Co., Ltd., told China A reporter from Aviation Weekly said.

Ju Jianshuang, general manager of Shanghai Jiesheng Furniture Co., Ltd. also introduced: "Compared with last year, this year our company's export orders have increased by about 10%."

But the headache for these exporters is that although the volume of export orders has exploded, their profits have not risen but fallen. The main reason is that the increase in shipping costs is even more alarming.

At the beginning of this year, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic caused most Chinese companies to stop work and production, leading to the cancellation of many orders and a decline in freight volume. Shipping companies have also adopted measures such as reducing capacity and reducing voyage density in response to market changes. However, shortly afterwards, the epidemic in China was effectively controlled, and companies gradually resumed work and production, exports basically recovered, and freight volumes rebounded rapidly.

However, judging from the market reaction, the shipping company's capacity increase did not match the cargo volume, which caused the freight rate to rise all the way. The direct reason for the recent sharp increase in freight rates is that the overseas epidemic has affected the efficiency of port loading and unloading. At the same time, the logistics turnover is not smooth, the shortage of containers is very prominent, and the supply and demand are seriously mismatched. For this reason, shipping companies have begun to levy congestion surcharges, peak season surcharges, and lack of containers surcharges.

 

Orders have skyrocketed, but profits have fallen instead of rising?  High freight costs torment Chinese exporters!
Latest SCFI data

According to the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 18, the market price of Shanghai’s exports to European basic ports (including maritime surcharges) was US$3,124/TEU, an increase of 6.0% from a week ago. Compared with the US$1,508/TEU a month ago, it has doubled.

The price of US$3,124/TEU on the Asia-Europe route is the highest ever since SCFI was released in 2009.

During the same period, the market prices (including shipping surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to basic ports in the West and East of the United States were 3,900 US dollars/FEU and 4874 US dollars/FEU, which were also at historical highs.

Cai Jiaxiang, vice chairman of the China Association of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Enterprises, said bluntly: "Sometimes, the sum of various surcharges even exceeds the freight."

Exporters' profit shrinking affects foreign trade stability in the long term

It is understood that about 80% to 90% of foreign trade export enterprises in China sign the FOB clause in the export contract, that is, the buyer pays for the freight.

Cai Jiaxiang analyzed: "In a short period of time, because Chinese exporters who sign FOB clauses will pay the freight by the buyer, it will not be greatly affected in the early stage of the price increase. But from a long-term perspective, if the freight continues to rise, the export The business is bound to be affected to a certain extent."

 

Orders have skyrocketed, but profits have fallen instead of rising?  High freight costs torment Chinese exporters!

 

 

He took the US importer as an example. If the buyer needs to pay up to 5,000 US dollars in freight per box for a long time, the buyer's import cost will be greatly increased, and the Chinese exporters may be required to share the high freight.

Even if the Chinese exporters who sign the FOB clause do not need to bear the ocean freight, they still have to pay for the transportation costs of the goods from the factory to the dock. At present, affected by the lack of containers, exporters can only obtain empty containers by waiting for empty containers or raising the price. In order to ensure shipments, most exporters will choose to increase the price to pick up the box, which also increases the export cost of Chinese exporters.

More importantly, the continued high freight rates will also affect the purchasing power of overseas consumers. Due to the increase in costs and the substitutability of some commodities, importers may consider whether to use substitutes when choosing commodities.

Wan Rufang said: “Our company’s order volume from August to October was relatively large. Compared with March to June, it has doubled. But starting from November, some countries have adopted closed measures and freight Excessively high, to a large extent affect the customer's purchase volume."

On the other hand, the Chinese exporters who signed the CIF clauses, as they directly bear the export freight, have a deeper understanding of the pain points of high freight, and it has effectively affected their own profits.

Ju Jianshuang's company faced this situation. He reluctantly said: "Our company is mainly based on signing CIF contract terms. In most cases, the ocean freight of exported goods is borne by us. The recent rapid increase in freight has caused the company's costs to rise sharply, and the monthly profit is about reduced. 600,000 yuan."

Ju Jianshuang said that the high freight rates are too burdensome for companies that "small profits but quicker sales" and mainly out-of-stock volume. "We will consider negotiating with customers to postpone shipments or raise prices appropriately. But the main solution is to give up some profits by the company itself to maintain normal operations."

He believes that a balance should be maintained between production companies and transportation companies to ensure the living space of both parties.

 

Orders have skyrocketed, but profits have fallen instead of rising?  High freight costs torment Chinese exporters!

 

 

However, even in the current era of "hard to find a box" and frequent freight charges, seaborne export is still the first choice for Chinese exporters.

There are two main reasons for this. One is the export destinations of some exporters, such as the United States, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore and other countries. These destinations cannot deliver goods by means of transportation other than sea or air, and air transportation has certain transportation restrictions and the freight rate is too high. , Most exporters will not consider; second, although shipping costs have risen sharply, they are still lower than road, rail, air and other transportation methods. At the same time, shipping has greater advantages in capacity and can better meet the needs of Chinese exporters.

Cai Jiaxiang further explained: "In the early days, shipping goods to Europe via the China-Europe Express train cost about US$10,000 per TEU. At present, although the freight rate of the China-Europe Express train has been lowered to US$7,000-8,000 per TEU, the price is still higher than that of ocean freight. From the perspective of many Chinese exporters, price is more important than speed."

Chinese and U.S. regulators frequently call for exporters to restore capacity

In response to the current difficulties faced by Chinese exporters, the Ministry of Commerce of China has paid close attention and responded publicly.

Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a recent press conference that many countries around the world are facing similar problems in foreign trade logistics due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The mismatch between supply and demand of capacity is the direct cause of the increase in freight rates. Factors such as poor container turnover have indirectly pushed up shipping costs and reduced logistics efficiency.

 

Orders have skyrocketed, but profits have fallen instead of rising?  High freight costs torment Chinese exporters!
Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce

He further emphasized: "The Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to increase capacity allocation, support accelerated container return transportation, improve operational efficiency, and support container manufacturing enterprises to expand production capacity. At the same time, it will increase market supervision and strive to stabilize market prices. Provide strong logistics support for the stable development of foreign trade."

Prior to this, the regulatory authorities of China, the United States and other countries have also stated that they will pay close attention to issues such as rising freight rates in the shipping market.

In September of this year, the Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China interviewed all shipping companies operating China-US liner routes, emphasizing that it will strengthen the supervision of China-US routes, requiring that the capacity, routes and schedules must be filed, and freight and all surcharges must be regulated. reasonable.

 

Orders have skyrocketed, but profits have fallen instead of rising?  High freight costs torment Chinese exporters!

 

 

Also in September, the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) also issued a warning to shipping companies that it would crack down on potential violations of competition laws. Soon after, FMC also announced the toughest measures to increase the supervision of the three major shipping alliances in response to issues such as freight and demurrage. It is required that shipping alliances must submit specific trade data to FMC every month, whereas previously it was only required to submit every quarter.

In this regard, Cai Jiaxiang said that the European and American regulatory policies are relatively timely. The EU has the most stringent anti-monopoly issues, and the United States is not inferior. These areas have achieved certain results in freight control, and prices are relatively stable.

Regarding the domestic export trade market, Cai Jiaxiang believes that “restoring the original normal capacity and flight density is the top priority to solve the problem.”

He further stated that the voice of the Ministry of Commerce can improve the current market conditions to a certain extent, but it still needs to increase efforts. "Call on the Ministry of Transport to interview shipping companies to restore normal capacity and flight density, and the State Administration for Market Supervision and Administration will use anti-monopoly laws reasonably and adopt legal weapons to cut the root cause of shipping problems." Cai Jiaxiang said.

Had it not been for the blocking of US ports, China’s November trade surplus could have exceeded 75.4 billion US dollars

In recent months, the number of ships going to the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has almost doubled, and the nearby seas have been heavily congested, causing extensive delays in routes north of the United States and even affecting the throughput of the Port of Oakland. The Marine Exchange of Southern California in Los Angeles confirmed the incident. According to statistics, 52 container ships entered and exited the San Pedro Bay port on Monday alone, and the daily average for the year was 24 ships, even more exaggerated is that the number of berthed ships reached 23 ships, and the daily average is only one.

 

The rapid increase in the number of trans-Pacific freighters has boosted the throughput data of California container ports. According to statistics, the container throughput of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach in November showed double-digit growth-the container throughput of the Port of Los Angeles in November Soared to 889,746 TEU, an increase of 22% over the same period last year. Officials from the local port and shipping authority stated that there has been an unprecedented surge in freight volume under the influence of factors such as the increase in consumers at the end of the year, the approaching holidays such as Christmas and New Year, and the inventory of various units.

The gap between imports and exports across the United States has widened again, and the rate of empty containers in ports has skyrocketed

 

Had it not been for the blocking of US ports, China’s November trade surplus could have exceeded 75.4 billion US dollars

 

 

Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, said at a news conference on Wednesday, “After nearly 11 months of year-on-year decline in freight volume, we have now ushered in 4 consecutive months of year-on-year growth. In the past month, our monthly average throughput reached 930,000 TEUs. But related to this, our export volume was affected by many factors-mainly due to the continuing trade tensions with China and the continued appreciation of the U.S. dollar. The volume dropped by 5.5% compared to the same period last year, and it was down nearly 15% for the whole year. Fully loaded containers were even shipped back to Asia empty after being unloaded at our port. This month, the number of empty containers was as high as 294,000 TEUs. This was an increase of nearly 35% in the same period last year."

 

The Port of Long Beach also stated in a press release that November was the best November on record, and that this was the result of the holiday retail boom and the surge in delivery of medical protective equipment-the Port of Long Beach in November The container throughput was 783,523 TEUs, an increase of 30.6% over the same period last year. The situation at the Port of Long Beach is entirely related to the surge in imports. Imports increased by 30.5%, soaring to 382,677 TEUs; but exports fell 5.2% to 117,283 TEUs-like the Port of Los Angeles, the empty container rate increased by 55% to 283,563 TEUs Standard box.

Mario Cordero, Executive Director of the Port of Long Beach, said: "As consumers choose to live at home this year, online shopping and purchases of medical protective equipment have gradually increased. However, as a new round of new crown pneumonia epidemic is still spreading across the country, The overall economic outlook is uncertain."

 

This is the highest port import volume that U.S. ports have encountered in the past decade

Some analysts believe that due to the restrictions of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, consumers are unable to spend money on services and start to spend money on goods, resulting in this unexpected growth, and the new crown epidemic has also contributed to the prosperity of container ports (at least Is temporary).

 

Excessive accumulation of goods has become a problem that more and more container ports are facing. MarineTraffic AIS (Ship Positioning) data shows that an average of more than 20 container ships are waiting in Los Angeles and San Pedro Bay in Long Beach every day. This is the same as the number of ships at anchorage last week.

 

Had it not been for the blocking of US ports, China’s November trade surplus could have exceeded 75.4 billion US dollars

 

 

Source: Marine Traffic

John McCown, the founder of Blue Alpha Capital, said that this seemed unimaginable when the new crown epidemic began. He added: "Considering the possible increase in December 2020, the annual increase will be around 1.5%, which will reverse the slight decline of 0.9% in 2019.

 

McCown pointed out that there were several industries where imports surged in November. Imports of furniture, sporting goods and toys increased by 55%. In October and September, they increased by 52% and 41%, respectively. "The lifestyle at home has driven the sales of a range of consumer products." He added that the surge in demand is partly due to consumers' redistribution of spending that is usually used for vacations, dining out and entertainment.

 

According to data from Blue Alpha Capital, despite the positive import data, US exports in November fell by 4.2%, the ninth consecutive month of decline, further exacerbating trade imbalances, and the import load ratio of each export reached 2.32, which is close to the historical record. .

McCown said: "The latest data seems to confirm that the impact of the trade war on our container exports is greater than the impact on our container imports."

 

Facing the soaring imports from the west coast, the port of Auckland in the north is not so lucky

 

Had it not been for the blocking of US ports, China’s November trade surplus could have exceeded 75.4 billion US dollars

 

 

Unlike the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles on the west coast, the Port of Oakland in the north increased its throughput by less than 1% year-on-year in November and its export volume fell by 2.6%. In November, the total imported container volume was 78,045 TEUs.

 

Officials at the Port of Oakland said that despite the strong import demand from the United States, the import volume of our port is far from reaching the expected value. The official quoted reports from local maritime experts as saying that it is precisely because of large batches of imported goods across the United States that disrupted the normal freight arrangements at ports, causing large-scale delays in the delivery of goods at many ports. What needs to be pointed out is that the increased accumulation of imported cargo in Southern California ports has caused ship delays, and many ships originally scheduled to call at the Port of Oakland have been forced to change their routes or directly cancel their call arrangements.

 

The director of the Port of Oakland, Bryan Brandes, declared that everyone does not need to be so pessimistic. “The cargo that should come to our port will still come, at most a while later (Thecargo is there, it's just delayed).” He expects to wait until December for a certain amount of cargo. Will grow.

 

However, Brandes also acknowledged that the increase in the number of incoming ships on the west coast has had a butterfly effect on the Port of Oakland. "Most of the cargo east of the trans-Pacific route is the Los Angeles route directly, and then some of it will go north to and from the Port of Oakland. So once the Port of Los Angeles produces Because of the delay, we will have a little impact here more or less."

 

U.S. agricultural exports have been affected by the chain, and this new year may not have been easy

 

Had it not been for the blocking of US ports, China’s November trade surplus could have exceeded 75.4 billion US dollars

 

 

The Port of Oakland is an export gateway favored by agricultural producers in central California, and it is now being hit by disruptions in the supply chain. As the Spring Festival approaches, exporters of agricultural products in many places, including California, said that due to shipping delays, their export business has been affected on a large scale-especially almond and walnut exporters, whose export peaks are at the end of each year.

 

Ed DeNike, President of SSA Terminals, said: "The biggest problem is due to traffic congestion in Southern California. Freight ships have not left Southern California. The arrival of the ships at the Port of Oakland may be delayed for at least one week."

 

Peter Schneider, vice president of freight company TGS Logistics, said that the butterfly effect of port congestion on the inland supply chain is getting worse. TGS now has to double the capacity of their container warehouse in Auckland. Because of the delay in the arrival of the ship, the shipping company will either refuse to accept all the exported goods or change the date of receiving the exported goods. This has caused exporters’ services to overseas buyers. Had a great impact.

 

my country's port containers are "difficult to find"

 

Had it not been for the blocking of US ports, China’s November trade surplus could have exceeded 75.4 billion US dollars

 

 

On the one hand, U.S. agricultural product exporters were delayed due to ship delays, and on the other hand, Chinese product exports were restricted by the shortage of containers.

 

According to economic data released by my country, China set a new record of trade surplus in November-US$75.4 billion, and exports increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Among them, exports to the United States led the growth and hit a record high. Analysts pointed out that the surge in trade imports to China is contrary to the expectations of U.S. bipartisan politicians. Although the Trump administration has imposed various restrictions on Chinese goods, there are few signs that the global supply chain will move closer to the U.S. On the contrary, the long-term impact of the epidemic on the United States seems to strengthen the position of China's manufacturing industry.

 

According to port carriers, due to the heavy congestion of major ports in the United Kingdom and the United States, a large number of containers have been stranded in these ports, which has affected global container turnover. The shortage of empty containers in Asian ports is so serious that carriers sometimes cannot guarantee Loading cargo at Asian loading ports.

 

Although carriers have made every effort to send empty containers from the United States to Asia-these measures even include "self-harm" measures such as drastically reducing the free container period, they still cannot change the reality of a serious shortage of containers in Asia, especially in China The ports of Xiamen, Ningbo and Shanghai, so that some ships cannot leave Asia with full load.

Indian exporters: The market is completely crazy!

Due to the unbalanced import and export situation, the shortage of containers in India is causing the cost of shipping companies and importers and exporters to rise sharply.

 

"The cargo volume of all routes has jumped in the range of 20% to 100%."

Mark S. Fernandes, director of the IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told the Business Standard: “Because customers are not ready to absorb price increases, exporters sometimes face losses.”

Indian exporters: The market is completely crazy!

"Our situation is very helpless. The customer is not ready to pick up the goods, and the shipping company has increased the freight. So we have to bear the cost because the materials have been produced and need to be delivered."

An Indian exporter, who asked not to be named, said: “The market is completely crazy, and shipping companies have formed a business alliance to make up for the losses it suffered during the global blockade earlier this year.”

 

Although the freight rate of the container part has risen, if booking in advance, the availability of the container will be eased to a certain extent.

Now, exporters are planning to cooperate with shipping companies 1-2 months in advance to ensure that the goods are shipped on time. If the plan is better, there will be no major delays in obtaining containers.

Indian exporters: The market is completely crazy!

Balmer Lawrie, Hyundai and Nathani are some of the container manufacturers in India. They started to produce these equipment in China at a very competitive price of US$1,000 per container, while the price of containers manufactured in India was US$1,800 to US$2,000.

 

Shipping companies can order more containers, but once the trade situation returns to normal, those newly ordered containers will become inventory.

Therefore, shipping companies are not keen to invest in new containers.

"It is not easy for shipping companies to survive. Operating costs have risen and trade has been hit as a whole. As a result, there are fewer flights and even have to empty ships, and fuel costs have risen sharply.

Indian exporters: The market is completely crazy!

Due to the epidemic, if certain preventive measures are not taken, the crew cannot breathe a sigh of relief. The measures taken will take time and additional costs. The entire industry chain has cost burdens, not just exporters. "

 

At the same time, ports such as JNPT and Chennai are striving to maintain operational efficiency in order to control the cost of shipping and importers and exporters from the port side.

 

"The port's cargo growth, we are in a recovery mode. We will ensure that there will be no congestion in the port, so that no stakeholders will incur additional cost burdens," said a senior transportation official of JNPT.

Small containers are becoming a key factor affecting the global trade industry chain.

Small containers are becoming a key factor affecting the global trade industry chain.

At the moment, in the field of foreign trade, it has become a consensus that “the one who gets the container gets the world”, and the lack of containers has become a hurdle in the international logistics chain. It can be said that I am in a hurry here, and you are looking forward to it.

Since July this year, China’s export volume has risen sharply, and both the shipping market and the China-Europe freight train market have seen shortages of containers, soaring freight rates, and delayed turnover.

Statistics from the China Container Association show that China’s export containers are mainly satisfied in two ways: unloading old containers after unloading at ports, and new containers made by Chinese container manufacturers.

At present, my country can only return one for every 3.5 containers exported. A large number of empty containers are backlogged in the United States, Europe and Australia, and there is a shortage of containers in Asia.

Containers that are usually returned within 60 days are now delayed to 100 days, and the cost of renting containers has also increased by about 150%.

I grabbed the space, but the box is missing; I grabbed the box, but the space is missing; I grab the box and the space, but the freight rate has increased again...

Zhang Jun, deputy general manager of Qingdao Port QQCT, said:

Under normal circumstances, if 1,000 containers are needed in the current period, there will usually be 1,200 to 1,300 containers waiting at the port. However, when containers are now in short supply, there may be only 800 to 900 containers at the terminal.

Nowadays, in addition to the hard to find a box, there is also a "hard to get a cabin."

The lack of shipping company capacity is the beginning of the nightmare of freight forwarders.

After the suspension, in addition to high freight rates, freight forwarders are faced with the realistic challenge of "bursting cabins".

The relationship with the shipping company is the "most familiar stranger", and the freight forwarder who can't pay the high price can't book the space at all, and the long-term customer's cargo cannot enter the port and board the ship on time.

I grabbed the space, but the box is missing; I grabbed the box, but the space is missing; I grab the box and the space, but the freight rate has increased again...

After the "explosive cabin", due to insufficient space, the shipping company will detain many of the space booked by the freight forwarder on the next flight in order to maximize the benefits. You know, "drop the container".

For large freight forwarders, the losses caused by dumping containers may still be within the tolerable range.

For those small and medium freight forwarders who rely on a few large customers themselves, the disadvantage of insufficient competitiveness in this case may directly lead to their fall.

As the "middleman" between the customer and the shipping company, the explosion of warehouses at the end of the year made the freight forwarding "messy in the cold wind" gradually.

The freight forwarding industry is already facing a situation where the strong will remain strong and the weak will remain weak.

However, freight forwarders serving some special categories will be in a better position because they have their own unique competitive advantages.

I grabbed the space, but the box is missing; I grabbed the box, but the space is missing; I grab the box and the space, but the freight rate has increased again...

On the 17th, Hapag-Lloyd's official website issued an announcement that due to continuous unforeseen operational challenges, it is still facing extremely tight equipment.

Hapag-Lloyd supports all confirmed bookings, but it does not rule out the possibility of cancellation.

At the moment it can be said that: I grabbed the space and lacked the box; I grabbed the box and lacked the space; I grabbed the box and the space , but the freight rate has risen again.······

The latest data show that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue until at least next year

The latest report released by the shipping consulting agency Sea Intelligence shows that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue this year, at least until January next year.

The biggest problem facing the container shipping industry is that some key regions, especially Asia, are facing a serious shortage of empty containers.

The short interest of empty containers is also the main reason that pushes the spot container freight market to historical highs, and it is also the main reason why shippers who want to be able to ship their products in time are very annoyed.

Some reports pointed out that due to the shortage of empty containers, the current impact on domestic exports has emerged.

Investment securities noted in exports , China's exports of most goods were transported by sea containers . The greater the export freight volume, the greater the demand for containers and the higher the freight rate. The freight rate index is consistent with the export year-on-year trend.

This year, SCFI began to increase prices at the end of May, matching the time when the European and American economies were unblocked. That is, the demand for Chinese goods increased after overseas unblocking, corresponding to the positive export growth rate from June; and the SCFI price increase has accelerated significantly. At the beginning of November, the export growth rate in November increased by 9.7 percentage points to 21.1%. From this perspective, based on SCFI's repeated record highs since December, exports remain strong in the short term.

 

The latest data show that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue until at least next year

 

 

On the supply side , under the high trade surplus, empty containers have been left without return, which has exacerbated the shortage of containers.

The China Container Industry Association stated that the average turnaround time of containers in China has jumped from 60 days to 100 days due to the reduction of capacity in the United States and Europe due to the virus, which has exacerbated the shortage of containers in China .

Some US importers have stated that they cannot receive the goods on time during the November-December shopping season. This will result in companies unable to deliver enough goods to meet consumer demand during local holidays.

Faced with this important problem of serious shortage of containers, I believe that the highest priority for everyone in the industry (consolidation industry, foreign trade industry) must be: when can the problem of container equipment shortage be solved?

In the latest market report, the shipping consulting agency Sea Intelligence modeled the overall state of the market based on advanced regional data. Through the estimation of the global container pool and global shipments, the base time required for a container to be loaded in Asia, complete its voyage, and to be loaded again in Asia is determined. Then, use Container Trade Statistics (CTS) demand data and Asia's potential empty container buffer inventory to supplement the explanation, and finally achieve the purpose of calculating the availability of empty containers in Asia.

 

The latest data show that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue until at least next year

By simulating 4 different strategies for the carrier (shipping company, etc.) to potentially solve the shortage of empty containers:

(1) Do not take any measures against the shortage of empty containers;

(2) Actively relocate empty containers on routes exported to Asia;

(3) Inject new containers to reduce the current burden;

(4) Operators actively take measures to reposition the containers and inject new containers.

The figure above outlines these strategies and their resulting impact on the availability of empty containers in Asia.

Given the above data model, SeaIntelligence pointed out that the only possible solution to this problem in January is when the shipping company has to purchase new containers and actively reschedule the return of empty containers . In fact, major shipping companies are also actively pursuing and attempting to implement strategies.

However, Sea Intelligence stated that this strategy will also cause serious problems for return shippers.

The market is therefore faced with a severe choice-either the carrier pursues the current strategy to achieve the goal of solving the container shortage in January next year, or the shipping company reduces their aggressive container repositioning strategy for the benefit of return shippers. But the result will be that the shortage of empty space will last at least until February next year, or even longer.

The latest data show that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue until at least next year

Shipping companies suspend bookings for Asia-Europe heading

With the lack of empty containers, shipping companies also feel that they have more than enough energy. Some shipping companies have to reduce or suspend bookings for a period of time in the future.

Not long ago, CMA CGM, the world’s fourth-largest container shipping company, announced that it would stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe in the next three weeks. Specifically, the company temporarily suspended the 49th, 50th and 51st week of this year’s Asia-Northern Europe route. Booking.

Then, according to the Danish shipping media shippingwatch, Maersk and ONE also said recently that they had to refuse some inquiries.

The world’s largest shipping company Maersk stated in a written reply to the media, “The current situation in Asia is very tense. Due to the large backlog of containers, we have reduced the short-term cargo orders in the last few weeks of December to a minimum, and Several voyages had to be stopped (reservations accepted)."

Singapore-based ONE Shipping said that the current industry is developing very fast, and the company is no longer able to accept goods transferred from other container companies.

In reply to the shipping company, the company wrote: "It is impossible to accept new transfers from other shipping companies, but we can basically meet the needs of existing customers without any substantial cancellation of bookings."

Drewry: The shortage of containers is not the lack of equipment

The research of De Luli Company shows that the shortage of usable containers faced by cargo owners is mainly due to operation, rather than lack of equipment.

In early 2020, some factories in China were closed due to the epidemic, and the number of containers in circulation has declined, but the decline in container shipments has been even greater. De Luli said:

By the end of 2020, the number of global marine container equipment is expected to drop by 1.1% to 39.9 million TEU, and the global container port throughput is expected to drop by 3.3% in 2020 . The two are not synchronized .

In the second half of 2020, container trade volume has risen sharply. With the increase in e-commerce activities after the closure of large consumer markets, demand has rebounded. A key indicator for measuring the availability of container equipment- the ratio of port throughput to each container is only 20 in the second half of 2020. This figure is in line with historical trends and indicates that there are enough containers to meet cargo demand .

Drewry believes that there are two reasons for the current shortage of boxes:

First, in the second quarter, due to sluggish demand, a large number of suspensions made the distribution of containers more uneven, and the weakening of liquidity made some ports' containers remain vacant;

Second, the unbalanced global economic recovery has resulted in an unbalanced shipping volume on routes, and the surge in freight demand has stimulated investment in new container equipment.

De Lori said: "Global container production shrank by 35% in the first quarter, while the container manufacturing industry has recovered by the end of the year. It is expected that container production will reach 2.7 million TEUs in 2020, a 5% drop from 2019."

Large operators are also increasing container equipment. Maersk stated in its third quarter report that it would invest in building more containers instead of ships; Hapag-Lloyd added about 250,000 TEU of equipment this year; CMA CGM increased 8.7% in the second half of the year. container. The increase in demand has pushed up container prices. In October, the price of a 20-foot TEU has reached US$2,650. It is expected that prices will rise further, and container leasing fees will continue to increase accordingly.

New problem with missing boxes! Over half of the return empty containers at this port are contaminated or damaged. Truck drivers complained that the shipping company shirks responsibility

At present, many Asian ports are facing a serious shortage of containers. Most of the containers are stranded in destination ports in Europe and the United States, making it difficult to return as soon as possible. In the limited number of return containers, new problems have emerged.

South Korea’s Busan Port Authority (BPA) recently stated that empty containers returned to the port from overseas have not been cleaned and inspected as they should .

New problem with missing boxes!  Over half of the return empty containers at this port are contaminated or damaged. Truck drivers complained that the shipping company shirks responsibility

In response, local truck drivers complained that the shipping company neglected the inspection, cleaning and maintenance of the containers, and instead shifted the responsibility of maintaining the containers to them.

It is understood that from November 16 to 24 this year, BPA collected 30,792 samples of empty containers from 9 container terminals in Busan Port for inspection. The results showed that the condition of 52% of empty containers is not ideal .

BPA stated that many containers need to be cleaned again . In addition, insects such as cockroaches and spiders were also found in some containers .

More importantly, 59% of all return empty containers have defects . The defect rate of empty containers returned to the port by Korean domestic importers was 47.2%.

"This is because the shipping company did not conduct proper inspections before shipping containers to Busan Port." BPA said.

New problem with missing boxes!  Over half of the return empty containers at this port are contaminated or damaged. Truck drivers complained that the shipping company shirks responsibility

It is understood that since 2018, with the assistance of local fisheries departments, animal and plant quarantine agencies and customs, BPA has been paying close attention to the cleaning and damage of containers and conducting related investigations.

Investigations have shown that in many cases, the exterior or interior of the container is obviously damaged, and garbage is deposited. About 1.2% of containers had to be replaced because they could not be repaired.

At present, the shortage of containers in the Asian market is still severe, while more and more containers are stranded in American ports.

Major US ports, including the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, have generally experienced equipment shortages and extended loading and unloading times. Coupled with the serious container imbalance problem in Pacific trade, a large number of imported containers are backlogged in American ports, causing terminal congestion, container turnover, and cargo transportation.

This situation has intensified, making the local port "close to complete paralysis."

Although shipping companies are also trying various ways to seek various solutions to speed up the dispatch of empty containers, according to Maersk’s estimation, many countries around the world are experiencing national blockades due to the second outbreak of the epidemic, and the shortage of empty containers is expected to remain Will continue.

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy! The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%! Container freight soared and hit a new high!

In response to the current serious shortage of containers in the Asian market, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Habben Jansen recently stated that “the congestion of the port and the strong demand in the market have caused the increase in traffic to exacerbate this problem. This kind of tension will continue for another 6-8 weeks. It will be alleviated.” The pressure on the supply chain caused by the shortage of containers in Asia will continue for at least another 6-8 weeks, which means that shortages will still be faced in the next two months, which will also affect shipments before the Spring Festival.

Container freight rates continue to soar, reaching high levels far above the long-term sustainable level. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) set a record of 2131.71 points, an increase of 162% over the same period last year. After experiencing a sharp increase in freight rates that initially lags behind the Pan-Pacific region, spot freight rates in northern Europe have soared up 230% compared to the same period last year. Moreover, the freight quotation in Asia and Northern Europe has reached US$10,000 per 40-foot high cabinet.

 

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

According to the shipping index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange in the latest issue, the overall export container shipping market in China remains high. The freight rates of most ocean routes operated steadily, and some increased significantly, and the composite index rose. On December 11, Shanghai's comprehensive export container freight index was 2311.71 points, an increase of 8.6% over the previous period.

 

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

Asia to Europe (Far East Europe Mediterranean route) : Near the end of the year, the volume of the European market remains high. The recurrence of the epidemic has also stimulated the growth of local import demand and strong transportation demand. The lack of containers in the market also affects European routes. Strong market demand and severe equipment shortages are expected to continue after the Spring Festival in 2021.

Last week, the average occupancy utilization rate of ships in Shanghai Port remained at the full level. Affected by this, most airlines increased their freight rates sharply in the middle of the month, and the spot market booking prices rose sharply. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the European basic port market was US$2,948/TEU, an increase of 24.2% from the previous period. In the Mediterranean route , the market situation is basically the same as that in Europe, and the spot market freight rate has risen sharply. On December 11, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the Mediterranean basic port market was 3073 US dollars/TEU, breaking the 3000 US dollars mark, an increase of 28.9% from the previous period.

 

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

 

 

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

However, there is news that the actual freight paid by the shipper is much higher in order to ensure the container and the final remaining European space . Lars Jensen of SeaIntelligence said that there is anecdotal evidence that the exact freight paid by shippers on the Asia-Northern Europe trade route may be as high as US$5,000 per TEU. Jensen explained: “In this case, it’s important to note that in some cases, SCFI underestimates the actual freight paid because there are additional costs related to equipment and space availability.”

A British freight forwarding company confirmed to The Loadstar that the freight quotation in Asia and Northern Europe has reached US$10,000 per 40-foot high container . "It's crazy," he said.

At the same time, all carriers will raise GRI again on December 15 . The current extreme shortage of 40-foot high cabinets suggests that alternative alternatives will continue to increase in freight rates this week; it is worth noting that due to port congestion and limited land capacity, cargo to the UK is subject to many restrictions, and delays and operational problems are expected. Some carriers stopped accepting bookings sent to the UK.

Due to the strong demand for containers and the backlog in recent weeks. CMA CMA CGM notified that it will temporarily stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe, that is, temporarily suspend bookings for the 49th, 50th and 51st week Asia-Northern Europe routes. Another shipping company recently told Asia-Northern Europe customers that if the shipment is cancelled within two weeks after the shipment date, it hopes to charge a fee of US$1,000 per TEU.

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

Asia to North America (trans-Pacific eastbound route): The US epidemic is showing a trend of major outbreaks, with new cases hitting new highs in a single day. Severe epidemics have caused frequent port congestion and blocked transit. The problem of equipment imbalance in Asia continues, and supply and demand are severely unbalanced. Ningbo Port, ports in Southeast Asia and Busan Port are the loading ports with the most serious equipment shortages. The carrier's cargo backlog has become more serious, and it is increasingly difficult to book containers.

Last week, the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to West and East US routes remained close to the full load level. The freight rate is high and stable, and the spot market booking price is basically the same as the previous period. SCFI data shows that the spot freight rate from Shanghai to the east coast of the United States increased by 104 U.S. dollars to 4804 U.S. dollars per FEU, an increase of 91% over the same period last year, while the freight rate to the U.S. West Coast was basically the same at 3,984 U.S. dollars/FEU. Nevertheless, it has increased by 188% compared to the same period last year.

There does not appear to be any sign of slowing down in freight volumes to the West Coast of the United States. The Port of Los Angeles expects that containers will increase by 48% and 44% in the next two weeks. The Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals are under tremendous pressure due to the sharp increase in throughput. According to forecasts, the total volume of the Port of Los Angeles in the fourth quarter will increase by 40% year-on-year, exceeding 850,000 TEUs. Ships are waiting at the anchorage in San Pedro Bay for a long time. 6 days.

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

Jon Monroe of Jon Monroe Consulting, Washington State, said: "Consumer recovery is gaining momentum. Black Friday sales have grown strongly, up 21% from last year. If you have not ordered the goods shipped before the Lunar New Year, you may be too late. Up."

South American routes: The raging epidemic has affected the production capacity of South American countries, their dependence on foreign materials is high, and transportation demand has remained high. In this period, most of the average space utilization of ships in Shanghai Port is at the full load level. Near the middle of the month, most airlines increased their booking prices, and the spot market freight rates rose. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the South American basic port market was 5876 US dollars/TEU, an increase of 12.5% ​​from the previous period.

In other routes, SCFI's spot freight rates have risen almost across the board. For example, the freight rates from Asia to South Africa rose 15% this period to US$2,289 per TEU, an increase of 130% over the same period last year.