Last week we looked at the question, “Can anyone be a freight forwarder?”
how to choose a freight forwarder Hariesh commented on our blog, as well as mentioning in his own, that “any Tom, Dick, or Harry can call themselves a Freight Forwarder.”
Of course, you don’t want any Tom, Dick, or Harry handling your imports and exports. It’s important your freight forwarder knows how to handle your international shipping.
With all the freight forwarders that are out there, and the surprising ease to call yourself a freight forwarder, how do you go about choosing a freight forwarder whom you can be confident in?
Well, today’s blog covers just that. Here are 5 tips on how to choose a freight forwarder.
1. MAKE SURE THE FREIGHT FORWARDER HAS EXPERIENCE.
This could almost be the whole list. Experience, experience, experience.
It might be fairly easy to start a freight forwarding company, but the international shipping industry is not the easiest business sector in the world and if you don’t know what you’re doing, you won’t last long.
During TJ China Freight’s 27+ years as a freight forwarder, we’ve seen many, many company’s come and go.
Years of experience means your freight forwarder has dealt with different situations like dockworker strikes and port shutdowns, needs for rerouting cargo, smoothing out customs or warehousing issues, and so on.
Experience usually means your freight forwarder will help you avoid customs, warehousing, and routing problems before they even start so your international shipping will go smoothly.
Experience also gives time for a company to form and cultivate business relations around the world from which you will benefit. Which brings us to…
2. ASK ABOUT THE FREIGHT FORWARDER’S NETWORK OF AGENTS AND BUSINESS PARTNERS IN THE COUNTRY YOU’RE EXPORTING TO OR IMPORTING FROM.
This is obviously important for the local handling of your international shipments.
Your freight forwarder should have a strong network around the world, but you need to know that they have the connections in the countries/cities of origin and destination for your imports and exports.
If you’re exporting and importing to and from Germany, it doesn’t matter how good the freight forwarder’s connections are in China.
TJ China Freight has a very large network and ships to and from almost anywhere in the world; however, you may have noticed a key word in there: almost. There are a few places in the world TJ China Freight does not ship to or from.
You may have found a freight forwarder who is great for shipping to the Philippines, but don’t have the connections or experience to do a great job handling your imports from China. So make sure you ask about your freight forwarder’s connections and experience in the specific locations you need.
Business partnerships around the world also allow your freight forwarder to offer additional services, which brings us to…
3. MAKE SURE THE FREIGHT FORWARDER OFFERS THE SERVICES YOU NEED FOR YOUR SHIPMENT.
Look at the services the freight forwarder offers.
A freight forwarder should be able to handle more than just the air shipping or ocean shipping part of your import or export. They should also be able to handle the rail and/or trucking portion of your international shipping.
I guess if you only need port to port services instead of door to door shipping, you wouldn’t find it a big deal whether or not the freight forwarder offers this service; however, if they do not have a trucking option, that says something about the freight forwarder’s network.
However, there are more services you may want from your freight forwarder. For example, TJ China Freight partnered with TOLL to offer Supply Chain Value Added Services. This means we can help you with things like warehousing, distribution, etc.
Of course, cargo insurance better be among their services and shipment tracking is nice to have if only for your peace of mind.
4. MAKE SURE THE FREIGHT FORWARDER HAS GOOD REFERENCES.
This is good advice when you’re looking for any kind of service, not just freight forwarding.
If there’s no one willing to say a freight forwarder did a great job taking care of their imports and exports, that’s a big red flag.
5. MAKE SURE THE FREIGHT FORWARDER HAS GOOD CUSTOMER SERVICE.
This is hugely important.
How fast does the freight forwarder get back to you on your freight rate request or on answering your questions?
If you’re new to international shipping, are they able and willing to walk you through what you need to know and do to make sure all goes well with your imports and exports?
Your sales person at a freight forwarding company may not have all the answers to your questions as they might be new to the company or even the industry, but they should be able to get the answers for you from the experienced team they’re working with.
How good your freight forwarder is at taking care of your individual needs speaks a great deal about their ability to give the needed attention to your shipments.
Notice, I didn’t even put freight rates in this list as much more important is your freight forwarder’s ability to take care of your shipping needs professionally and precisely.
One freight forwarder may offer shipping rates well below the rest of the competition, but you’ll usually find yourself paying for choosing them in additional costs, delays, and very poor customer service.
But if you follow the five tips above, you should find a freight forwarder who has the contracts and network which allow them to offer competitive rates.
As we all know, the tariffs of South American countries are very high, and customs clearance is difficult. Brazil is a country of South America, and one of the hardest to do so. Today, I'll follow the search network for the Brazil customs clearance.
Brazil is a developing country. In order to protect its industrial production, it has adopted a tax protection policy on foreign imports in terms of imports. Brazil customs is a few countries to check the strict international parcel inspection, for they rate as high as one hundred percent, does not meet the requirements for shipment of goods or the customs will return the goods will be shipped, and shipped back to have a cost.
The main reason for the goods being imported by the Brazil customs is that the correct document information can not be provided during the customs clearance, and the timely homework can greatly reduce the possibility that the goods will be detained by the Brazil customs office so as to smooth customs clearance.
What are the requirements for customs clearance in Brazil?
The common customs clearance documents used in Brazil are bills of lading, invoices, boxes, fumigation certificates, power of attorney (both in Portuguese and English versions). NCM encoding and imported party bill of lading must be marked on the goods CNPJ number, NCM encoding HS encoding similar to the international general, to classify and tax on the product, CNPJ, is similar to the registration number, to determine the importer's identity and qualification. In addition to the invoice indicating the consignor, name, weight, volume, value, contract number, departure, destination and other basic information, but also need to indicate the product price, and address of the manufacturer. The International Plant Protection Convention as "" (International Plant Protection Convention, referred to as IPPC) signatory, Brazil in June 1, 2005 since the implementation of "international trade in wood packing material management standards" (ISPM15), for wood packing material requirements after fumigation / disinfection treatment and affix the IPPC logo.
Brazil customs special bill of lading requirements:
At the customs of the Brazil, all non - individual goods (missing or incorrect documents) will be deemed to be smuggled immediately after unloading and will be seized by the customs and fined. At the same time, the customs of the Brazil has the following special requirements for the original bill of lading:
1) the consignee shall not be "TO ORDER"".
If the bill of lading the consignee (Consignee) as "TO ORDER", the goods will be detained by customs, submit to the Brazil customs system until the consignee details (including complete address, telephone, fax number CPNJ enterprises, etc. and contact etc.), the customs will allow the delivery.
2) the Brazil customs does not accept the description of the general cargo. Such as: Department, good, merchandise, Chemical, Dry, cargo and so on.
3) must be labeled with the consignee (Consignee) enterprise tariff CPNJ goods, Brazil commercial customs NCM code encoding. If Notify and Consignee are different, also must identify its corporate tax CNPJ. In addition, the bill of lading must indicate the volume of the goods (per cubic meter).
4) the freight must be marked in figures and words at the same time on the bill of lading.
Brazil customs - Documentation / equipment inspection
For different channels of goods, the customs will take different means of inspection, in accordance with past experience, most Chinese products will be classified as yellow or red channel, rarely included in the green channel. For the goods of the Yellow channel, the customs will focus on the inspection of customs documents, evaluate the information of the value of the goods, the quantity of goods and the classification of the goods, and release them in the case of the audit. For the red channel of the goods, the situation is more complicated, first by the customs officer of customs documents for review, and then assigned to the port customs inspection personnel on-site inspection, if still unable to obtain the accurate judgment, should be combined with the third party inspection engineer jointly issued by the official inspection and report. From the beginning of the inspection to the issue of a report often takes weeks, this link is the entire customs clearance process in a longer period of time, but also the most difficult to grasp the link.
Brazil customs clearance procedures cumbersome
According to the world economic forum released the "2014-2015" in the global competitiveness report, ranked 144 countries (or regions), in the Brazil customs efficiency ranked 138, so the export of goods to Brazil for a long time, need to have patience.
There are three main tariff rates for imported goods in Brazil:
1 federal taxes
A. import duties. According to different commodities, the import tax rate is different. The average tax rate is now 17%. General raw material tax rate is very low or zero; consumer goods in general is about 20-30%.
B. industrial product tax. The average tax rate is 10%, which is a progressive tax, and is calculated at the price of CIF plus the total value of the import duty.
2. State taxes
C. commodity circulation service tax, which is equivalent to VAT, is a progressive tax, and is calculated at the CIF price plus the import duty, the processing industry, and the total value of the product tax. There are two tax rates, 17% and 18%, 18% in St Paul and 17% in all other states (both of which refer to transactions within the state) Depends on the state of the importer.
Brazil customs is not generally high, in addition to import tariffs and other mixed taxes, customs clearance to pay tips. Moreover, many products in Brazil have anti-dumping duties, and if Chinese goods are exported to Brazil at a high tariff, entrepot trade may be considered.
What products does China levy against the tax on Brazil?
Brazil Chinese of automotive glass, safety glass refrigeration appliances, agricultural tires, truck tires, bicycle tires, motorcycle tires frameless glass mirror, ball pen, coil, ring magnet, plastic vacuum tubes, seamless steel pipe, PVC resin, ceramic filter, two oxygen
After the freight rate in the trans-Pacific market has remained stable for a period of time, it has recently started a rising mode.
According to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (Freightos Baltic Daily Index), on December 28, 2020, the freight rate of the Asia-US West Coast route reached US$4,189/FEU, a record high, an increase of 8% from December 25, which is the year of 2019. 3 times over the same period.
At the same time, the freight rate of the Asia-US East Coast route also reached an astonishing US$5397/FEU, a 9% increase from December 25 and twice the rate of the same period in 2019.
According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 25, 2020, the freight rates (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the basic port markets of the West and the East of the United States were 4,080 USD/FEU and 4,876 USD/FEU, respectively. The US West route rose 4.6% from the previous week.
Analysts of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said that the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to the West and East U.S. routes maintained at a level close to full load. However, the U.S. epidemic has blocked the turnover of containers, and a large number of containers are stranded at the local terminal. The congestion of the port is increasing, and the shortage of containers has not been alleviated.
In addition, a number of shipping companies including CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen Shipping, HMM, ONE, Yangming Shipping, and Star Shipping have announced that they will start on the trans-Pacific route from January 1, 2021. , Charge a comprehensive rate increase surcharge (GRI) ranging from US$1,000 to US$1,200/FEU.
The market predicts that the upward trend of freight rates will continue until January 2021.
In contrast to the fast-growing transportation demand, after a fully loaded ship arrived at the US West Port, it faced the dilemma of nowhere to stop.
According to a report released by the Marine Exchange of Southern California on December 28, 2020, a total of 24 container ships are anchored in San Pedro Bay, and another 5 ships are about to arrive.
According to the report, the local conventional anchorages are full of ships, and some emergency anchorages have also been occupied.
Marine Traffic uses an automatic identification system to draw a map that shows the extent of the accumulation of container ships in San Pedro Bay, which has deteriorated in recent weeks.
According to statistics, 26 additional ships called at the Port of Los Angeles in November and 31 ships in December. A port manager said that it is expected that in January 2021, more additional ships will call.
The loading and unloading capacity of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has already faced serious shortages. The Port of Los Angeles will import 116,500 TEU containers this week, and it is expected to increase significantly to 150,000 TEU per week by January 2021.
The continuous increase in freight rates and the severe congestion at the US West Port have caused shippers’ costs to hit unprecedented highs, and shippers have to reassess their transportation cost budgets for 2021.
The shipping industry in 2020 can be said to be half winter and half summer.
Affected by the epidemic, China's exports declined in the first half of the year, and the shipping industry was cold and "overwintering" ahead of schedule. In the second half of the year, the neglected shipping industry directly entered the "midsummer." As the epidemic situation in China stabilizes and the economy recovers steadily, goods from all countries are transferred from Chinese ports. For a time, China's shipping industry is showing a busy scene.
“It’s too difficult to order containers now!” A reporter from the Securities Daily could see vehicles transporting containers coming and going at the Shanghai port. A foreign trade official who did not want to be named told the reporter: “At present, I want to order a container. The price can be said to be one price per day. Not only that, even if the container is booked, I still have to worry about the availability of the cabin."
"Shanghai SIPG, Ningbo, and Shenzhen are all major ports in the world. In 2018 and 2019, the container throughput of Shanghai Port was ranked first. Recently, the container shipping market is very hot, and many boxes cannot be returned after they go out." People from listed companies commented on the reporter of "Securities Daily".
In this regard, Liu Wang, chairman of Shanghai Tianhui International Logistics Co., Ltd., told reporters: “The price of container transportation has been rising. Because shipping companies have fewer ships, they often suspend voyages, and the lack of boxes is common, even if the price increases. It cannot fundamentally solve the problem of missing boxes."
• One price a day, "boxes" are crazy
"The most exaggerated time in the past 10 years." Speaking of the current shipping industry, Ms. Xie, who is engaged in the foreign trade industry, told a reporter from the Securities Daily. Ms. Xie is mainly responsible for the freight of Guangzhou Nansha Port and Shenzhen Port. She told reporters that taking a 40-foot container as an example, the highest sea freight to the Middle East at this time last year was about US$3,000. It costs almost US$5,000 now. Last year, it was US$2,800 to US$3,200 to Europe, and now it is US$6,000 to US$7,000. This year, the freight is almost twice the same period last year.
By the end of the year, the lack of positions became a true portrayal of the operation industry.
“Nowadays, there is a shortage of containers and high freight rates. The supply exceeds demand. During the epidemic, there was a large backlog of foreign containers that could not be arranged for delivery, and no one carried the goods. Almost all customers were looting containers. Under current market conditions, there are few freight forwarders. When looking for new customers, they are basically priority old customers.” Ms. Xie told reporters that the new year is approaching, and major suppliers are fully shipping. It is expected that the shortage of containers will continue.
"First of all you have to have a position, then you have to line up the truck to get the container, and finally you have to wait for the port to open before you can enter the port. Every day, you have to go through five hurdles, and you have to face customer soul torture. It's late, can't you figure it out?" A shipping forwarder complained about the tightness of the current export containers.
Liu Wang revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Many forwarders who have no boxes sometimes look for scalpers. Now forwarders are looting positions. The positions have to be booked in advance. Many people robbed and reselled them. In the past, they did not lose their shipping fees. Now that the shipping companies are recovering their losses, the shipping companies are about to usher in a wave of market conditions this year. After the merger and reorganization last year, it is estimated that all the money lost in the past will be made back this year."
Liu Wang said: “In the past Christmas and the Spring Festival, there will be a wave of liquidation market, this year is particularly fierce because of the epidemic. South American container boxes were the lowest in history at 50 US dollars a small container, and now basically it costs more than 5,000 US dollars, and a large box 10,000. U.S. dollars, if $5,000 this week is too expensive for you, you may not be able to order $6,000 next week, basically one price a week."
In fact, the current container price has been upgraded to a daily basis. A person in charge of an international logistics company said: “In Qingdao Port, the price of a second-hand 40-foot container in previous years was about US$2,000. On November 27 this year, the price rose to US$2,850; by November 30, the price of a second-hand container rose to US$3,200. ; On December 3, it rose to 3,400 US dollars again, almost one day."
According to data from the freight benchmark company Xeneta, the current average price of short-term market contracts in Asia and Europe for three months or less is 200% higher than a year ago, at $4,831 per 40 feet. But from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by an astonishing 390.5%.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings told reporters: “As the volume of goods continues to rise, the demand for export containers has greatly increased, and the domestic guarantee for container use has become tighter. However, the turnover of overseas empty containers has generally slowed due to the continuous impact of the epidemic situation in various places. Transfer back to China to meet demand."
"The whole industry is looking for boxes everywhere, and some merchants are beginning to hoard boxes to speculate on prices." In the eyes of industry insiders, the current situation of foreign trade companies being difficult to find a box is not only because of the slow operation of containers, but also because of the reduction of some routes. .
"There are few ship lines, and most of the cabinets shipped abroad can't return. This is the root cause of the skyrocketing price of the domestic container transportation market." Liu Wang explained to the reporter: "It's not that foreign cabinets are not coming back. It is the epidemic situation abroad. The impact is that the workers do not go to work and the speed of transportation is relatively slow. Now everyone is sharing the warehouse."
According to Liu Wang, the container ships now and the alliance has been formed since last year. Originally, it used its own ships to transport the goods. Now four or five shipowners or five or six companies form an alliance, and use the same ship. warehouse. "It turns out that there may be several shipping companies arranging several shifts to go to sea in a week. Once we formed an alliance, the shifts decreased in a week. This started last year. Now shipping companies often stop once a week, which objectively leads to a shortage of ships. ."
A person in charge of the Shanghai Maritime Logistics Company introduced to a reporter from the Securities Daily: "At present, the proportion of import and export trade by sea is imbalanced. There are few boxes coming in and many boxes going out . In addition, China has quickly prevented and controlled the epidemic, and overseas orders have continued to surge. , Increasing the pressure on shipping. Overseas, affected by the epidemic, the operation cycle of containers shipped out due to business environment problems has been lengthened, the arrival process has increased, and the operation efficiency has slowed and lengthened the circulation cycle. Due to the early outbreak of the epidemic, major shipping The company has reduced many routes, resulting in uneven distribution of global container volumes."
The industry believes that with the increase in market demand, the current effective capacity is obviously insufficient.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO Shipping Holdings revealed to the reporter: "As the global epidemic prevention and control has become normalized, global trade has been rapidly repaired since the third quarter of this year, and the demand in the container shipping market has recovered beyond expectations. In order to meet the growth of transportation demand, market capacity has gradually returned to normal. , The idle capacity has dropped rapidly from the record high of more than 2.7 million TEU (international standard unit units) in May this year. At present , there is no airworthy effective capacity to rent in the market. "
In the context of uneven global container deployment, container prices on different routes have also risen at different rates.
"Since November, the price of the U.S. line has increased by about four times compared with the beginning of the year, and the European line has risen to the highest price last year. From the perspective of the distribution of China’s export routes, the U.S. container accounts for 25%, Europe accounts for 25%, and Southeast Asia , Northeast Asia adds up to 50%, the US route is now hard to find a box is the norm, followed by the European route, freight is also very tight. The price of Malaysia route in Southeast Asia has also doubled recently." The person in charge of the aforementioned logistics company added.
Facing the increase in demand for containers, the above-mentioned relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings stated: “The company will strengthen scientific forecasts for container use, actively coordinate dual-brand superior resources, and make every effort to guarantee the use of containers during peak seasons. On the one hand, internally tap the potential and accelerate overseas heavy container Demolition speed, increase empty container callback domestic and Far East efforts to promote container turnover; on the other hand, close communication with container manufacturers and container leasing companies to seek more container sources. Through two-pronged and multiple measures, to guarantee domestic container use Provide effective assistance and try our best to meet the shipping needs of customers."
In order to meet the development needs of the container market, SIPG has launched a number of effective measures to promote container volume growth in response to the market. At the beginning of this year, the Group launched seven special measures for container growth, through the implementation of preferential international transit loading and unloading fees, extension of the international transit container storage exemption period, and sea-rail intermodal customs clearance container preferential projects. In the first half of the year, the Group established three major container areas: Yangshan, Outer Harbor, and Domestic Trade, striving to achieve overall planning and agglomeration effects.
According to SIPG’s official announcement, in October, each terminal of Shanghai Port set a new record. The monthly throughput of Shengdong Company exceeded 820,000 TEUs for the first time. Among them, 33068 TEUs and 12899.75 TEUs were updated on October 25. Class record; Guandong Company broke through 720,000 TEU, setting a new record again.
• How long can the "shortage of containers" last? What is the future prospect of the shipping industry?
"The first half of the year was affected by the new crown epidemic. Ports and shipping fields did suffer a relatively large negative impact, so the first half of the year was basically a negative growth state. In the second half of the year, especially after the third quarter, normal operations resumed to a certain extent, plus China The epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, and most of the economic activities have been resumed first. Therefore, compared with the first half of the year, there is indeed a big sign of a bottoming out." said Liu Dian, a research assistant at the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China.
In the first two months of this year, my country's foreign trade imports and exports dropped significantly. According to China Customs data, from January to February 2020, my country's total import and export value of goods trade was 4.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%; imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%.
Although the current domestic epidemic situation is under control, the global epidemic is breaking out, and exports are still under certain impact.
It can be said that in the first half of this year, people in the shipping industry were mainly pessimistic about my country's export prospects. In the second half of the year, the industry was generally optimistic about the future development of the shipping industry.
Insiders analyzed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that this round of container freight price increases began in the middle of this year. At that time, after the domestic epidemic was brought under control, foreign countries were greatly affected by the epidemic, and many overseas orders were transferred to the domestic market. When shipping from China, the shipping price began to rise. According to Liu Wang's prediction, this round of price increases will continue until the first quarter of next year.
An unnamed person in charge of maritime logistics said: "As the epidemic stabilizes, this hot market will continue into the first half of next year, or even longer."
"This wave of increase in container shipping prices has driven the adjustment of the entire foreign trade sector, breaking the laws of the past decades in the industry. Not only ocean freight, air freight and land transportation have different levels of influence and changes. The epidemic has accelerated the entire large trade sector. The consolidation and adjustment of the shipping sector will gradually move towards intensive development. Shipping companies have become monopolistic after years of integration and mergers. The aviation sector and the land transport sector are also rapidly integrated, and a new chapter will emerge in the future foreign trade field." People say so.
According to Huang Tianhua, chairman of the China Container Industry Association and vice president of CIMC, predicted that the shortage of containers may continue for about six months . He said: "We have monitored that if there are 500,000 new containers in China normally, they are in a completely healthy state if they are ready for use in the docks or ports, but the current tighter inventory is about 300,000 new containers. I expect it to be possible. In the next three months to six months, this slightly tense balance will continue. This is probably a trend in the current industry."
Although the industry is generally optimistic about the shipping industry, Liu Dian believes that the total global trade volume in 2020 will still drop a certain percentage from the previous year, but from the perspective of the shipping industry, it will definitely be from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. There will be a better market.
Liu Dian said: “Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the uncertainties slowed down in the second half of the year, and the overall trend showed a relatively large rebound. Therefore, from a macro perspective, global international trade has rebounded to a certain extent. China is the first to resume the rebound led by the next."
" At present, the shipping industry is mainly affected by three factors :
Di Yi factor is that the global economy is expected to have a recovery, so after the third quarter, international trade has been warmer, led the field of shipping industry as a whole for the better, whether it is from container or just have some trade from the sea to pick up case .
The second factor is that with the signing of the RCEP agreement, a series of regional economic integration cooperation relations in East Asia and Southeast Asia will improve, which will benefit the import and export trade of China and related countries.
The third factor is that although the epidemic has not been eliminated on a global scale, all countries are in short supply, such as medical supplies, production supplies, and living supplies. China is now the world's largest trade surplus country. Under such circumstances, China's export trade, including part of its import trade, will also get a relatively large rebound in demand, and at the same time promote the rise of a series of shipping-related industry indexes in related fields, including the container shipping index. "Liu Dian said.
As the global economy will grow again after the new crown virus pandemic, the dry bulk market may develop towards a new wave of demand for raw materials. Shipbroker Intermodal said in its latest weekly report: “As we all know, the amount of steel forged in China exceeds that of the rest of the world combined, even in this unprecedented new coronavirus pandemic, as iron ore imports increase. China also broke a nine-year record, reaching more than 1 billion tons this year. The market price of iron ore is also very optimistic, because in addition to fundamental factors and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity, iron ore The current trading price of stone is the highest level since the end of 2011 and will increase by nearly 80% by 2020."
Christopher Whitty, Director of Tugboat and Maritime Port Services, said: “China’s iron ore imports mainly come from Australia and Brazil, which play an important role in the dynamics of maritime trade, especially the Capesize freight market. Despite recent tensions between Australia and China Relationship, especially in the coal trade, but we expect that the demand for both materials will be great for the rest of this year, and hopefully this will be the case next year. In the first and second quarters of the new year, all of us At the same time, they all hope to have an effective vaccine so that global commerce can resume to a certain new normal."
Christopher Whitty added: “In terms of coal trade, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of China’s total imports. The navigation distance between the two countries is very short, and the recent escalation of tensions between China and Australia has led to concerns about Australian coal entering China. The unofficial ban came into effect in early November. In addition, it is reported that China recently signed a US$1.5 billion thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which means that Indonesia is expected to enter the Chinese market in 2021.
"Considering the main driving force of the Capesize freight market-iron ore demand, it is expected that China's demand will remain at a relatively high level in the next 12 months; although if iron ore prices remain at such a high level, many steel companies will not Profitable, Chinese steel companies may seek to slightly reduce production. Iron ore demand in many other countries in the world is expected to remain below its 2019 level, and a series of steel producers in Europe and South Asia will remain closed or slowed down , Unless the price of iron ore drops, production will not resume." Industry analysts said.
"China will announce its five-year plan for 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure construction and faster urbanization, especially in the central and western regions of China, which in turn will affect steel Demand. By then, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and a clearer understanding of the impact of vaccines on more populations and their economies."
Whitty concluded: "At interesting moments before us, let us see how this will affect shipping in the new year.
If shippers and logistics companies hope that the ultra-high shipping container prices will fall in the New Year, then they may be disappointed.
Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, revealed at a press conference that global logistics giants and container liner companies expect that the chaotic market, lack of berths, and container shortages, etc., will still be available by 2021. Will last for a while.
In addition, Tim Scharwath, CEO of freight forwarding giant DHL Global Freight Forwarding, also attended the meeting. What the two CEOs have in common is that they agree that 2020 is characterized by great unpredictability, such as promising customers whether their goods will reach their destinations on time, which is very unpredictable.
As time goes by and the year is coming to an end, shippers have to pay more and more freight to ship the goods. This development is largely due to the sharp increase in demand month by month since July. For example, it is not uncommon to have to pay US$5,000 for shipping containers from Hong Kong to New York.
▍It will not stabilize until the second half of 2021
The two executives agreed that after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia this spring, the very special environment has caused a historic imbalance between supply and demand. They also believe that the shipping market will not stabilize for the time being.
Scharwath said: "As for shipping, I think we must enter the second half of 2021 before we see the market stabilize again. The first quarter will definitely be affected, and so will the second quarter."
"We will have to wait and see what happens, because everything is difficult to predict. As a large company, we usually make plans for 3 to 5 years. Now, we are making plans for 3 months."
Inadequate ship capacity and insufficient containers have serious consequences for the industry’s supply chain. In addition to customer dishonesty and record high freight rates, a recent survey conducted by Sea-Intelligence shows that only half of the ships can reach their destinations on time .
▍Shipping companies strengthen management and control
Mainly affected by the new crown epidemic, container shipping companies’ performance in the second quarter was weak, but their profits have soared to record levels since the summer. However, the quality of service is lacking, and container shipping companies have been stating for months that these conditions are beyond the scope that they can change.
On the one hand, they do not have more ships to deploy, on the other hand, they cannot redistribute the containers to the required ports. In addition to other reasons, customers do not return the goods.
Currently, Asia in particular is suffering from a shortage of containers because many containers are in the United States. According to a Bloomberg report, it may also be because of port congestion that these containers cannot be unloaded at US ports. This is the case with 20 container ships currently near the Port of Long Beach.
Therefore, at the beginning of December, CMA CGM, Maersk and ONE had to refuse to leave the booking outside of Asia, the reason is very simple, because there is no extra space on board.
Hapag-Lloyd, led by Habben Jansen, also benefited from the increase in freight rates in recent months. Therefore, the shipping company has twice raised its full-year 2020 profit forecast, and the company currently expects its operating results to exceed US$2.7 billion.
However, the CEO said that it is usually because of an oversupply of ships, and 10 years after the industry has lost billions of dollars, it is time for container shipping companies to start making money.
▍Strong performance in the second quarter of next year
Until recently, shipping companies and container manufacturers also predicted that the current shortage of containers will be resolved after the Chinese New Year in February, which will restore the market to a more normal state. But Habben Jansen no longer believes this prediction is correct.
"This year’s development is beyond everyone’s expectations. Because of the introduction of economic stimulus measures, people still have money on hand, and most of the money has been spent on container cargo. Many signs indicate that the strong market we see after the Spring Festival has passed. It will appear and will continue into the second quarter."
Habben Jansen pointed out that the current market congestion will take some time to resolve.
Ocean freight has been very developed in the 21st century. How to choose the container used in freight transportation ? The following editor will analyze it.
The emergence of containers is for the safety of the container and the ship, but before packing, it is necessary to know the volume, nature, type, and shape of the goods to choose a suitable container. Of course, some goods cannot be transported, and also The cargo will be damaged due to the wrong container.
As for how to choose the right container for the goods, let's talk about them one by one below.
How to choose the container used in sea freight ?
You can choose sundries containers for valuables and cleaning items; ventilated containers for perishables and dirty goods; refrigerated containers for refrigerated and dangerous goods; livestock (animal) containers for animals and plants; platform containers for bulky items, and bulk The cargo can choose bulk containers.
When we are shipping, it is very important to know how to choose the shipping container, and it is also to ensure the safe arrival of the goods to the destination.
When the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, telecommuting and home isolation have become the norm. The suspension of offline transactions in the past has accelerated the shift of international trade to online. In this context, China's foreign trade exports have accelerated recovery, especially the rapid increase in cross-border e-commerce orders.
Recently, the "home economy" related products represented by furniture, home appliances, toys, and daily necessities have continued to explode. China’s small commodity export orders have surged, and many manufacturers’ orders have already been scheduled to 2021.
Correspondingly, due to the imbalance of China's import and export trade, container shipping export freight rates remain high, and containers are "difficult to find". These problems have become more prominent under the stimulation of huge transportation demand.
The explosive growth of export orders and thorny transportation problems have put Chinese exporters facing tremendous pressure and challenges.
Export orders soared, shipping costs soared
"This time of the year is the peak season. In previous years, the factory was very busy and the number of offline purchases was countless. This year, affected by the epidemic, almost all of them have adopted online ordering." Wan Rufang, general manager of Zhejiang Fengfan Stainless Steel Products Co., Ltd., told China A reporter from Aviation Weekly said.
Ju Jianshuang, general manager of Shanghai Jiesheng Furniture Co., Ltd. also introduced: "Compared with last year, this year our company's export orders have increased by about 10%."
But the headache for these exporters is that although the volume of export orders has exploded, their profits have not risen but fallen. The main reason is that the increase in shipping costs is even more alarming.
At the beginning of this year, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic caused most Chinese companies to stop work and production, leading to the cancellation of many orders and a decline in freight volume. Shipping companies have also adopted measures such as reducing capacity and reducing voyage density in response to market changes. However, shortly afterwards, the epidemic in China was effectively controlled, and companies gradually resumed work and production, exports basically recovered, and freight volumes rebounded rapidly.
However, judging from the market reaction, the shipping company's capacity increase did not match the cargo volume, which caused the freight rate to rise all the way. The direct reason for the recent sharp increase in freight rates is that the overseas epidemic has affected the efficiency of port loading and unloading. At the same time, the logistics turnover is not smooth, the shortage of containers is very prominent, and the supply and demand are seriously mismatched. For this reason, shipping companies have begun to levy congestion surcharges, peak season surcharges, and lack of containers surcharges.
Latest SCFI data
According to the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 18, the market price of Shanghai’s exports to European basic ports (including maritime surcharges) was US$3,124/TEU, an increase of 6.0% from a week ago. Compared with the US$1,508/TEU a month ago, it has doubled.
The price of US$3,124/TEU on the Asia-Europe route is the highest ever since SCFI was released in 2009.
During the same period, the market prices (including shipping surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to basic ports in the West and East of the United States were 3,900 US dollars/FEU and 4874 US dollars/FEU, which were also at historical highs.
Cai Jiaxiang, vice chairman of the China Association of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Enterprises, said bluntly: "Sometimes, the sum of various surcharges even exceeds the freight."
Exporters' profit shrinking affects foreign trade stability in the long term
It is understood that about 80% to 90% of foreign trade export enterprises in China sign the FOB clause in the export contract, that is, the buyer pays for the freight.
Cai Jiaxiang analyzed: "In a short period of time, because Chinese exporters who sign FOB clauses will pay the freight by the buyer, it will not be greatly affected in the early stage of the price increase. But from a long-term perspective, if the freight continues to rise, the export The business is bound to be affected to a certain extent."
He took the US importer as an example. If the buyer needs to pay up to 5,000 US dollars in freight per box for a long time, the buyer's import cost will be greatly increased, and the Chinese exporters may be required to share the high freight.
Even if the Chinese exporters who sign the FOB clause do not need to bear the ocean freight, they still have to pay for the transportation costs of the goods from the factory to the dock. At present, affected by the lack of containers, exporters can only obtain empty containers by waiting for empty containers or raising the price. In order to ensure shipments, most exporters will choose to increase the price to pick up the box, which also increases the export cost of Chinese exporters.
More importantly, the continued high freight rates will also affect the purchasing power of overseas consumers. Due to the increase in costs and the substitutability of some commodities, importers may consider whether to use substitutes when choosing commodities.
Wan Rufang said: “Our company’s order volume from August to October was relatively large. Compared with March to June, it has doubled. But starting from November, some countries have adopted closed measures and freight Excessively high, to a large extent affect the customer's purchase volume."
On the other hand, the Chinese exporters who signed the CIF clauses, as they directly bear the export freight, have a deeper understanding of the pain points of high freight, and it has effectively affected their own profits.
Ju Jianshuang's company faced this situation. He reluctantly said: "Our company is mainly based on signing CIF contract terms. In most cases, the ocean freight of exported goods is borne by us. The recent rapid increase in freight has caused the company's costs to rise sharply, and the monthly profit is about reduced. 600,000 yuan."
Ju Jianshuang said that the high freight rates are too burdensome for companies that "small profits but quicker sales" and mainly out-of-stock volume. "We will consider negotiating with customers to postpone shipments or raise prices appropriately. But the main solution is to give up some profits by the company itself to maintain normal operations."
He believes that a balance should be maintained between production companies and transportation companies to ensure the living space of both parties.
However, even in the current era of "hard to find a box" and frequent freight charges, seaborne export is still the first choice for Chinese exporters.
There are two main reasons for this. One is the export destinations of some exporters, such as the United States, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore and other countries. These destinations cannot deliver goods by means of transportation other than sea or air, and air transportation has certain transportation restrictions and the freight rate is too high. , Most exporters will not consider; second, although shipping costs have risen sharply, they are still lower than road, rail, air and other transportation methods. At the same time, shipping has greater advantages in capacity and can better meet the needs of Chinese exporters.
Cai Jiaxiang further explained: "In the early days, shipping goods to Europe via the China-Europe Express train cost about US$10,000 per TEU. At present, although the freight rate of the China-Europe Express train has been lowered to US$7,000-8,000 per TEU, the price is still higher than that of ocean freight. From the perspective of many Chinese exporters, price is more important than speed."
Chinese and U.S. regulators frequently call for exporters to restore capacity
In response to the current difficulties faced by Chinese exporters, the Ministry of Commerce of China has paid close attention and responded publicly.
Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a recent press conference that many countries around the world are facing similar problems in foreign trade logistics due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The mismatch between supply and demand of capacity is the direct cause of the increase in freight rates. Factors such as poor container turnover have indirectly pushed up shipping costs and reduced logistics efficiency.
Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce
He further emphasized: "The Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to increase capacity allocation, support accelerated container return transportation, improve operational efficiency, and support container manufacturing enterprises to expand production capacity. At the same time, it will increase market supervision and strive to stabilize market prices. Provide strong logistics support for the stable development of foreign trade."
Prior to this, the regulatory authorities of China, the United States and other countries have also stated that they will pay close attention to issues such as rising freight rates in the shipping market.
In September of this year, the Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China interviewed all shipping companies operating China-US liner routes, emphasizing that it will strengthen the supervision of China-US routes, requiring that the capacity, routes and schedules must be filed, and freight and all surcharges must be regulated. reasonable.
Also in September, the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) also issued a warning to shipping companies that it would crack down on potential violations of competition laws. Soon after, FMC also announced the toughest measures to increase the supervision of the three major shipping alliances in response to issues such as freight and demurrage. It is required that shipping alliances must submit specific trade data to FMC every month, whereas previously it was only required to submit every quarter.
In this regard, Cai Jiaxiang said that the European and American regulatory policies are relatively timely. The EU has the most stringent anti-monopoly issues, and the United States is not inferior. These areas have achieved certain results in freight control, and prices are relatively stable.
Regarding the domestic export trade market, Cai Jiaxiang believes that “restoring the original normal capacity and flight density is the top priority to solve the problem.”
He further stated that the voice of the Ministry of Commerce can improve the current market conditions to a certain extent, but it still needs to increase efforts. "Call on the Ministry of Transport to interview shipping companies to restore normal capacity and flight density, and the State Administration for Market Supervision and Administration will use anti-monopoly laws reasonably and adopt legal weapons to cut the root cause of shipping problems." Cai Jiaxiang said.
In recent months, the number of ships going to the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has almost doubled, and the nearby seas have been heavily congested, causing extensive delays in routes north of the United States and even affecting the throughput of the Port of Oakland. The Marine Exchange of Southern California in Los Angeles confirmed the incident. According to statistics, 52 container ships entered and exited the San Pedro Bay port on Monday alone, and the daily average for the year was 24 ships, even more exaggerated is that the number of berthed ships reached 23 ships, and the daily average is only one.
The rapid increase in the number of trans-Pacific freighters has boosted the throughput data of California container ports. According to statistics, the container throughput of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach in November showed double-digit growth-the container throughput of the Port of Los Angeles in November Soared to 889,746 TEU, an increase of 22% over the same period last year. Officials from the local port and shipping authority stated that there has been an unprecedented surge in freight volume under the influence of factors such as the increase in consumers at the end of the year, the approaching holidays such as Christmas and New Year, and the inventory of various units.
The gap between imports and exports across the United States has widened again, and the rate of empty containers in ports has skyrocketed
Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, said at a news conference on Wednesday, “After nearly 11 months of year-on-year decline in freight volume, we have now ushered in 4 consecutive months of year-on-year growth. In the past month, our monthly average throughput reached 930,000 TEUs. But related to this, our export volume was affected by many factors-mainly due to the continuing trade tensions with China and the continued appreciation of the U.S. dollar. The volume dropped by 5.5% compared to the same period last year, and it was down nearly 15% for the whole year. Fully loaded containers were even shipped back to Asia empty after being unloaded at our port. This month, the number of empty containers was as high as 294,000 TEUs. This was an increase of nearly 35% in the same period last year."
The Port of Long Beach also stated in a press release that November was the best November on record, and that this was the result of the holiday retail boom and the surge in delivery of medical protective equipment-the Port of Long Beach in November The container throughput was 783,523 TEUs, an increase of 30.6% over the same period last year. The situation at the Port of Long Beach is entirely related to the surge in imports. Imports increased by 30.5%, soaring to 382,677 TEUs; but exports fell 5.2% to 117,283 TEUs-like the Port of Los Angeles, the empty container rate increased by 55% to 283,563 TEUs Standard box.
Mario Cordero, Executive Director of the Port of Long Beach, said: "As consumers choose to live at home this year, online shopping and purchases of medical protective equipment have gradually increased. However, as a new round of new crown pneumonia epidemic is still spreading across the country, The overall economic outlook is uncertain."
This is the highest port import volume that U.S. ports have encountered in the past decade
Some analysts believe that due to the restrictions of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, consumers are unable to spend money on services and start to spend money on goods, resulting in this unexpected growth, and the new crown epidemic has also contributed to the prosperity of container ports (at least Is temporary).
Excessive accumulation of goods has become a problem that more and more container ports are facing. MarineTraffic AIS (Ship Positioning) data shows that an average of more than 20 container ships are waiting in Los Angeles and San Pedro Bay in Long Beach every day. This is the same as the number of ships at anchorage last week.
Source: Marine Traffic
John McCown, the founder of Blue Alpha Capital, said that this seemed unimaginable when the new crown epidemic began. He added: "Considering the possible increase in December 2020, the annual increase will be around 1.5%, which will reverse the slight decline of 0.9% in 2019.
McCown pointed out that there were several industries where imports surged in November. Imports of furniture, sporting goods and toys increased by 55%. In October and September, they increased by 52% and 41%, respectively. "The lifestyle at home has driven the sales of a range of consumer products." He added that the surge in demand is partly due to consumers' redistribution of spending that is usually used for vacations, dining out and entertainment.
According to data from Blue Alpha Capital, despite the positive import data, US exports in November fell by 4.2%, the ninth consecutive month of decline, further exacerbating trade imbalances, and the import load ratio of each export reached 2.32, which is close to the historical record. .
McCown said: "The latest data seems to confirm that the impact of the trade war on our container exports is greater than the impact on our container imports."
Facing the soaring imports from the west coast, the port of Auckland in the north is not so lucky
Unlike the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles on the west coast, the Port of Oakland in the north increased its throughput by less than 1% year-on-year in November and its export volume fell by 2.6%. In November, the total imported container volume was 78,045 TEUs.
Officials at the Port of Oakland said that despite the strong import demand from the United States, the import volume of our port is far from reaching the expected value. The official quoted reports from local maritime experts as saying that it is precisely because of large batches of imported goods across the United States that disrupted the normal freight arrangements at ports, causing large-scale delays in the delivery of goods at many ports. What needs to be pointed out is that the increased accumulation of imported cargo in Southern California ports has caused ship delays, and many ships originally scheduled to call at the Port of Oakland have been forced to change their routes or directly cancel their call arrangements.
The director of the Port of Oakland, Bryan Brandes, declared that everyone does not need to be so pessimistic. “The cargo that should come to our port will still come, at most a while later (Thecargo is there, it's just delayed).” He expects to wait until December for a certain amount of cargo. Will grow.
However, Brandes also acknowledged that the increase in the number of incoming ships on the west coast has had a butterfly effect on the Port of Oakland. "Most of the cargo east of the trans-Pacific route is the Los Angeles route directly, and then some of it will go north to and from the Port of Oakland. So once the Port of Los Angeles produces Because of the delay, we will have a little impact here more or less."
U.S. agricultural exports have been affected by the chain, and this new year may not have been easy
The Port of Oakland is an export gateway favored by agricultural producers in central California, and it is now being hit by disruptions in the supply chain. As the Spring Festival approaches, exporters of agricultural products in many places, including California, said that due to shipping delays, their export business has been affected on a large scale-especially almond and walnut exporters, whose export peaks are at the end of each year.
Ed DeNike, President of SSA Terminals, said: "The biggest problem is due to traffic congestion in Southern California. Freight ships have not left Southern California. The arrival of the ships at the Port of Oakland may be delayed for at least one week."
Peter Schneider, vice president of freight company TGS Logistics, said that the butterfly effect of port congestion on the inland supply chain is getting worse. TGS now has to double the capacity of their container warehouse in Auckland. Because of the delay in the arrival of the ship, the shipping company will either refuse to accept all the exported goods or change the date of receiving the exported goods. This has caused exporters’ services to overseas buyers. Had a great impact.
my country's port containers are "difficult to find"
On the one hand, U.S. agricultural product exporters were delayed due to ship delays, and on the other hand, Chinese product exports were restricted by the shortage of containers.
According to economic data released by my country, China set a new record of trade surplus in November-US$75.4 billion, and exports increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Among them, exports to the United States led the growth and hit a record high. Analysts pointed out that the surge in trade imports to China is contrary to the expectations of U.S. bipartisan politicians. Although the Trump administration has imposed various restrictions on Chinese goods, there are few signs that the global supply chain will move closer to the U.S. On the contrary, the long-term impact of the epidemic on the United States seems to strengthen the position of China's manufacturing industry.
According to port carriers, due to the heavy congestion of major ports in the United Kingdom and the United States, a large number of containers have been stranded in these ports, which has affected global container turnover. The shortage of empty containers in Asian ports is so serious that carriers sometimes cannot guarantee Loading cargo at Asian loading ports.
Although carriers have made every effort to send empty containers from the United States to Asia-these measures even include "self-harm" measures such as drastically reducing the free container period, they still cannot change the reality of a serious shortage of containers in Asia, especially in China The ports of Xiamen, Ningbo and Shanghai, so that some ships cannot leave Asia with full load.
Due to the unbalanced import and export situation, the shortage of containers in India is causing the cost of shipping companies and importers and exporters to rise sharply.
"The cargo volume of all routes has jumped in the range of 20% to 100%."
Mark S. Fernandes, director of the IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told the Business Standard: “Because customers are not ready to absorb price increases, exporters sometimes face losses.”
"Our situation is very helpless. The customer is not ready to pick up the goods, and the shipping company has increased the freight. So we have to bear the cost because the materials have been produced and need to be delivered."
An Indian exporter, who asked not to be named, said: “The market is completely crazy, and shipping companies have formed a business alliance to make up for the losses it suffered during the global blockade earlier this year.”
Although the freight rate of the container part has risen, if booking in advance, the availability of the container will be eased to a certain extent.
Now, exporters are planning to cooperate with shipping companies 1-2 months in advance to ensure that the goods are shipped on time. If the plan is better, there will be no major delays in obtaining containers.
Balmer Lawrie, Hyundai and Nathani are some of the container manufacturers in India. They started to produce these equipment in China at a very competitive price of US$1,000 per container, while the price of containers manufactured in India was US$1,800 to US$2,000.
Shipping companies can order more containers, but once the trade situation returns to normal, those newly ordered containers will become inventory.
Therefore, shipping companies are not keen to invest in new containers.
"It is not easy for shipping companies to survive. Operating costs have risen and trade has been hit as a whole. As a result, there are fewer flights and even have to empty ships, and fuel costs have risen sharply.
Due to the epidemic, if certain preventive measures are not taken, the crew cannot breathe a sigh of relief. The measures taken will take time and additional costs. The entire industry chain has cost burdens, not just exporters. "
At the same time, ports such as JNPT and Chennai are striving to maintain operational efficiency in order to control the cost of shipping and importers and exporters from the port side.
"The port's cargo growth, we are in a recovery mode. We will ensure that there will be no congestion in the port, so that no stakeholders will incur additional cost burdens," said a senior transportation official of JNPT.
