McKinsey heralds bad news for shippers

Shippers must prepare for events in which the tight container market may not normalize until 2024, according to a new analysis by McKinsey & Company. But the consultancy told ShippingWatch that shipping rates could end up being 50% higher than pre-pandemic figures.

The container market has been strained since mid-2020 due to the huge demand for goods in the United States, port closures due to the pandemic, container shortages and extreme congestion at the world's largest and most important container ports.

The result of the tight market is the soaring of container freight rates. The revenue and profit of container shipping companies in the past two years have experienced historic growth. Last year, the total revenue of the top ten shipping companies exceeded 100 billion US dollars. The punctuality rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade.

Some shipper companies, which are customers of container shipping companies, have not stopped complaining about these situations for a long time, and they even believe that container shipping companies should be more strictly regulated.

But this recent McKinsey report throws cold water on shippers.

McKinsey, one of the world's largest management consulting firms, expressed its views on the current container shipping market in a report entitled "Navigating the current disruption in containerized logistics". A large number of new ships have been ordered to expand capacity, but the normalization of the container shipping industry may still be delayed until the first quarter. If the situation is worse, normalization of the market may take until after 2024.

McKinsey also noted that container freight rates will remain high for most of 2022, while disruptions to the container logistics supply chain will continue.

Steve Saxon, a McKinsey partner who is now a container market analyst based in McKinsey's Shenzhen office, said that if you asked us a few months ago for our views on the future of the container industry, we might also lean towards a positive (recovery) view. But right now, McKinsey is leaning more toward a pessimistic outlook -- bad news from a shipper's perspective.

McKinsey proposes four possibilities for the future development of the container shipping market.

In the most optimistic case, the container shipping market may return to normal in the third quarter of 2022. Normal freight volumes, normal capacity offers, and normal freight rates.

But McKinsey also said that the most optimistic scenario may not be possible.

Port Klang fire: 22 containers burned, 38 damaged

A severe fire broke out at the Westports terminal in Port Klang, Malaysia's main container port, with 22 containers burned and 38 damaged.

Port Klang Authority general manager K. Subramaniam said the fire started at 4.15pm (local time) on April 4. At around 4.45pm, the Port Police Control Centre (PPCC) received a call about a fire in the container yard.
After answering the call, the PPCC called the Fire and Rescue Department (FRD) from Port Klang, which deployed two fire trucks to extinguish the blaze shortly after.
It took firefighters 11 hours to put out the blaze, which was fully extinguished around 3 a.m. on April 5.

Subramaniam pointed out that the container holds general cargo and does not contain dangerous goods. Affected box contents include auto parts, cotton products, baby walkers, audio equipment and lubricants.

"At this time, we are unable to determine the extent of the damaged containers. All affected box operators will be notified in due course," Westports said in a statement.
"There was no damage to port equipment and infrastructure. We are also pleased to inform that there were no injuries or disruptions to our operations.
"We would like to thank everyone involved in helping us put out the fire, especially the FRDs from various stations."

While investigating the cause of the fire, Subramaniam said: "Other than the blockade of the fire area for investigation, the container cranes were not affected and other areas of the port were operating normally."

Selangor Fire and Rescue Department chief Norazam Khamis said the fire initially spread to eight containers, which were stacked in two rows by weight. Westports crews attempted to move other containers to prevent the fire from spreading.

A container ship full of Chinese cargo explodes and catches fire

One wave has not settled, and another has risen. In the recent period of time, various maritime related accidents have continued, and accidents have followed one after another. …

According to foreign media reports, at about 12:00 on April 6, a container ship "CMA CGM RABELAIS" with a capacity of 6,500 TUE exploded in the western part of the Strait of Malacca between the Andaman Islands and Banda Aceh Sumatra, followed by a fire.

The vessel was en route from Tanjung Pelepas to Nhava Sheva, India when the incident occurred, and reports said the vessel's AIS was off and adrift since the explosion.

It is understood that the container ship "CMA CGM RABELAIS" has a capacity of 6570TEU. It was built in 2010 and flies the flag of Malta. At the time of the incident, the ship was serving the AS1 (Asia Subcontinent Express) route of CMA CGM, and the voyage was 0FF5HW1MA.

Also, according to the voyage information of CMA CGM RABELAIS provided by Shipxun.com for Xinde Maritime.com, this voyage has successively called at Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangzhou and other ports in China.

Therefore, it can be basically determined that this voyage is definitely loaded with goods from China.

CMA CGM RABELAIS is currently chartered and operated by CMA CGM, but its actual shipowner and manager company is DANAOS, an independent Greek shipowner company, which is a member of the Swedish Shipowners' Mutual Insurance Association.

The ship involves multiple shipping companies sharing cabins: ANL, APL, CMA CGM, CNC, COSCO SHIPPING, GOLD STAR LINE, OOCL, ZIM.

I would like to remind you that if there is a freight forwarding company carrying the ship, please pay attention to the dynamics of the ship and the cargo in time, keep in touch with the shipping company, and keep abreast of the latest situation of the ship and the cargo.

The container shipping market is in short supply, and the price of second-hand ships has skyrocketed

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the supply and demand of the container shipping market has been unbalanced, and the freight rate has skyrocketed. Shipping companies that are "not worried about money" have bought and leased them. The amount of scrap is almost zero.

According to Alphaliner data, container lines have gone on a spree to acquire more than 500 container ships in the second-hand ship market in the past 18 months. Among them, Mediterranean Shipping was the largest buyer, purchasing a total of 169 second-hand ships with a total capacity of 636,900 TEU; followed by CMA CGM, which purchased 62 ships with a total capacity of 207,000 TEU. Maersk Line only ranked third, purchasing 27 ships of 141,600 TEU. The fourth is Wan Hai Shipping, which purchased 23 ships of 139,700 TEU.

ALphaliner pointed out that at the beginning of the market recovery, the price of second-hand ships was still at a low level, which made it a better choice for container shipping companies to buy and lease. At the same time, many small non-operating ship owners (NOO) are struggling on the brink of bankruptcy due to years of low rental income, and it is difficult to resist the high prices offered by container shipping companies.

Currently in the second-hand ship market, container ship prices have soared to record highs. The hot sale situation has also made the scrapping of container ships almost zero, and the capacity in the charter market has plummeted by 1.6 million TEU.

At the same time, orders for new container ships also hit a record high last year. Clarkson's data shows that in 2021, the order volume of container ships will reach 569 ships of 4.3 million TEU, and the contract value is as high as 42.8 billion US dollars. This order level is even 29% higher than the previous record level of 3.3 million TEU in 2007. 3.5 times the average order volume in the 10 years ending in 2020.

Since 2022, there have been 124 new orders in the container ship market, with a total capacity of about 857,600 TEU. It is estimated that the order volume of container ships will remain at a high level after 2022.

South Korean shipbuilding industry returns to No. 1 after 7 years

With its strong performance in the field of LNG ships, the Korean shipbuilding industry has won half of the orders in the global newbuilding market.

According to data released by Clarkson on April 5, in the first quarter of this year, the global new ship order volume was 9.2 million revised gross tons (CGT), a decrease of 41% compared with the same period last year. Among them, South Korea undertook 4.57 million CGT, and the global The market share reached 49.7%, an increase of more than 12 percentage points from 37.2% in the first quarter of last year; China has undertaken 3.855 million CGT, and the global market share has dropped from 46% in the first quarter of last year to 41.9%; Japan has undertaken 248,400 CGT , the global market share fell to 2.7% from 12.8% in the same period last year.

This is the first time in the past seven years that a Korean shipping company has ranked first in the world in terms of orders received in the first quarter. At the same time, this is also the first time since Clarkson started statistics in 1996 that the number of orders received by South Korean shipping companies in the first quarter has reached about 50% of the global market share.

In addition, in March this year, the global order volume for new ships was 3.23 million CGT. The number of orders received by South Korean shipping companies also ranks first in the world in a single month, with a total of 1.64 million CGTs, accounting for 51% of the global share. Chinese shipbuilding companies ranked second with 1.36 million CGT orders, accounting for 42% of the global share.

As of the end of March, the number of global hand-held orders was 94.71 million CGT, an increase of 1.55 million CGT from the end of February. Among them, South Korean shipping companies have the largest increase in orders, reaching 1.12 million CGT; Chinese shipping companies have increased orders by 610,000 CGT, and Japanese orders have decreased by 240,000 CGT.

Industry insiders in South Korea said that last year, South Korea handed over the world's largest new ship order volume to China. In the first quarter of this year, the global new ship order transaction volume decreased significantly year-on-year, but South Korean shipbuilding companies worked hard and preemptively seized the place. The order finally overtook China to regain the first position. This is mainly due to the large number of LNG ship orders undertaken by South Korean shipbuilders. Regarding the reasons for the significant decrease in the number of orders received by Japanese shipbuilding companies, a Korean industry official explained that the data of the Japanese shipbuilding industry traditionally lags behind, so there may be changes in the future.

According to statistics, among the 38 large-scale LNG ships of 174,000 cubic meters or more ordered globally in the first quarter of this year, South Korea has undertaken 27 vessels, accounting for 71%; China has undertaken 11 vessels, accounting for 29%. In addition, a total of 44 container ships above 8000TEU have been ordered globally this year, of which South Korea has undertaken 21 ships, accounting for 47.7%.

A relevant person in the Korean industry said: "Although the number of new ship orders has decreased this year, Korean ship companies are benefiting from the booming LNG ship market. In the first quarter of this year, the number of LNG ships undertaken by Korean ship companies increased significantly, and the number of orders on hand It is also increasing, and the delivery time has been scheduled to the end of 2025. At present, European countries are looking for alternative sources of Russian energy, and the demand for LNG ships will continue in the future.”

The epidemic will not bring down Shanghai Port and Ningbo Zhoushan Port

Recently, the epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai has been in a severe period, and the infection rate has continued to rise. Shanghai Port cannot survive alone, and is making every effort to coordinate resources from all parties to keep the port open. On the other hand, many truck drivers were diagnosed in Ningbo, and the local government immediately introduced a policy of one nucleic acid per day for truck drivers to further tighten the prevention and control policy. As the two largest ports in the world, Shanghai Port will complete a container throughput of 47.3 million TEU in 2021, and Ningbo Zhoushan Port will complete a cargo throughput of 31.08 million TEU. These two ports account for nearly 40% of the national port container throughput. In this regard, the normal operation of the two ports is related to the smooth global supply chain, and the sensitive market remains highly concerned about this.

Recently, a screenshot of densely crowded ships in the waters near Shanghai circulated on the Internet. The screenshot was accompanied by a caption saying, "Hundreds of ocean-going freighters have been stranded in the open seas of Shanghai, and the supply chain is broken here."

The impact of this round of Shanghai epidemic on international shipping has also aroused high public attention.

On April 2, SIPG also responded to the news of "severe congestion in Shanghai Port": "We have noticed that some media have published false reports on the serious congestion in Shanghai Port, which mentioned that 'Shanghai's port is delayed. The situation is getting more and more serious', 'the number of ships waiting to be loaded and unloaded in Shanghai port has soared to more than 300 this week' and other unverified remarks and pictures, according to the internal data monitoring of Shanghai port, since February, Shanghai port terminal production and operation As usual, there is no congestion of container ships." SIPG further stated that there is absolutely no "congestion comparable to the port congestion in West America" ​​in Shanghai Port. The number of waiting ships is in single digits, and the average number of waiting days is normal.

Previously, it was believed that due to the severe epidemic situation in Shanghai, the transportation of import and export goods was also affected, and some ships calling at Shanghai Port may be diverted to Ningbo Zhoushan Port or Nanjing Port.

On April 6, the "Daily Economic News" reporter asked the relevant person in charge of Ningbo Port (601018.SH) to verify the above situation. The person in charge responded: "The company is now doing a good job of epidemic prevention and control in accordance with the requirements of the superior and the actual situation of the enterprise to ensure the continuous, stable and healthy development of port production. As for the ships that previously berthed at Shanghai Port, they will be moved to Ningbo Zhoushan Port. The situation is not obvious at the moment and we are monitoring it.”

On the same day, a person in charge of a shipping agency in charge of Ningbo also told reporters that from what he knew, Shanghai's port calls are relatively normal, and there has not been a large number of changes to Ningbo port.

At the same time, Ningbo Zhoushan Port had to face the problem of epidemic spillover. From April 4th to 5th, 6 of the 7 cases found in Ningbo City were road freight-related drivers and express service area staff, and one of them was in Beilun District; as a model of anti-epidemic, Ningbo Zhoushan The port quickly made a decision to close some container shipping bases in Beilun District, and organized truck drivers to conduct nucleic acid tests every 24 hours. For example, Ningbo Meidong Container Terminal Co., Ltd. issued a notice on April 3 that truck drivers entering the port area. A free nucleic acid test needs to be completed immediately before entering the port area; at the same time, for foreign vehicles, Ningbo City requires drivers to actively cooperate with nucleic acid testing and antigen testing at the high-speed bayonet. In addition, Ningbo has implemented closed management of staff in the city's expressway service areas, strictly implemented daily nucleic acid testing measures, and suspended refueling operations.

At present, Ningbo Zhoushan Port is still in normal operation as a whole, and the warehouses that were temporarily closed due to the detection of tight connections will also be unsealed from tomorrow. In addition to Ningbo City, two freight drivers in Shaoxing City were also found to be infected with the new crown. The freight drivers and passengers outside the city are required to perform nucleic acid tests every two days on the basis of implementing nucleic acid tests every two days, and each time they return to Shaoxing Expressway.

The port circle (ID: gangkouquan) believes that if the impact of the epidemic expands, the impact of the collection and distribution problem continues to expand, and the ports in the Yangtze River Delta region cannot handle the problem of transportation route configuration, which will be a heavy blow to the global supply chain. of. On the premise of "preventing imports from outside and preventing exports from inside", Shanghai should increase the capacity of waterway barges as soon as possible to transfer the pressure of road collection and distribution, while Ningbo Zhoushan Port must learn lessons and give priority to preventing the spread of the epidemic. The two ports will not be dragged down as the outside world fears, but for a period of time in the future, whether it is the cargo owner, the shipping company, or the port, it will be under the pressure of repeated epidemics.

Evergreen’s container ship ‘Ever Forward’ has declared general average

After the ship left Baltimore on March 13, the Ever Forward ran aground. For the common interests of cargo owners and the safety of all involved, Evergreen Shipping has been making every effort to refloat the stranded ship. Evergreen declared general average on April 17, given the increased cost of continued attempts to re-float the vessel. There have been no reports of injuries or contamination.

Ever Forward, a 12,000 TEU container ship owned by Evergreen Shipping (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Evergreen Shipping Group, ran aground in Chesapeake Bay after leaving Baltimore on the evening of March 13. No casualties have been reported to the ship or its cargo. , and there are no signs of fuel leaks or contamination.

Dredgers have been digging around the stranded container ship, and groups of tugboats made two unsuccessful attempts to pull the 1,095-foot vessel out of the silt last week.

Under new plans announced by the Coast Guard, cranes will be used to remove some of the containers from the "long haul" to reduce their weight before the next rescue effort. The lifting operation will start as soon as a crane with the right lifting height is installed. Meanwhile, the dredger will continue to dig to a depth of 43 feet around the vessel. During these operations, the fairway will remain one-way traffic and a 500-yard safety zone will remain around the vessel.

Salvage experts determined that in their current state of loading, they would not be able to overcome the gravity of the "long-range wheel". The new program offers the best chance of successfully relaunching the long haul. ' said the Coast Guard.

Containers will be unloaded from the port and starboard sides of the 12,000TEU container ship and placed on a barge, which will transport the containers to the Seagrit Marine Terminal in the Port of Baltimore and unload them. The ship is currently carrying 4,964 general dry cargo containers, according to the Coast Guard. The Coast Guard said that for safety reasons, lifting operations can only be carried out during the day.

Once the required number of containers has been removed, another re-float attempt will be made using tugboats and pulling barges.

According to the Baltimore Sun, the plan calls for the removal of several hundred of the 4,964 containers on the long-haul ship, with most of the cargo remaining on board. Since the shipowner Evergreen Shipping has declared general average, the shipper needs to provide the necessary guarantees and documents to the general average adjustment company before the container cargo shipped to the Seagirt terminal can be recovered.

Vietnam accelerates container production to compete with China

Chinese factories now account for more than 96% of the world's dry container and 100% of the reefer container market, and Vietnam is joining the fray and is providing the world with a new container export destination.

Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group, Southeast Asia's largest steelmaker, is making a foray into container manufacturing.
It sees potential synergies with its core steel production business.
Hoa Phat started construction of its plant Hoa Phat Container Manufacturing in Vung Tau province in December and is expected to be operational by the end of this year with an annual production capacity of 500,000 TEUs, all using steel produced in-house.
Two South Korean companies - Seojin Systems and Ace Engineering - have also built container factories in northern Vietnam, which are expected to be operational later this year.

Hefa Group: Plans to supply containers to the market in the fourth quarter

Nguyen Manh Tuan, vice chairman of Hoa Phat Group, said: "Shipping containers are part of the Hoa Phat company ecosystem, and Hoa Phat started building the container manufacturing plant amid a global shortage of shipping containers."

Hefa Group planned to start construction of the factory in June 2021, but due to the impact of the fourth wave of the new crown epidemic, the project was officially launched in November 2021, five months later than planned.

But after 3 months of construction, 5 workshops, with a total construction area of ​​nearly 7 hectares, began to erect columns. On February 22, 2022, the construction of the first truss of workshop 5 was completed.

Vu Duc Sinh, head of the container manufacturing division of Hoa Fatt Group, said the first machines and equipment at the plant are expected to arrive this month and construction will be fully completed by April. The construction of the factory is accelerating. There are 3-5 contractors on the construction site, who distribute the projects equally and strive to complete the capital construction within 6 months from the date of commencement of construction. We want to build factories as soon as possible to take advantage of the shortage.

In Vietnam, Hoa Phat was the first container manufacturer. Tuan explained that the high price of weathering hot rolled coil steel used to make containers would cost the company if imported, and we at Hoa Phat can produce this steel.

The Hefa Group's container factory will be commissioned in the third quarter of 2022, and products will be brought to market from the fourth quarter of this year. The plant is expected to have a capacity of 200,000 TEU per year by the end of 2023.

Maersk Bars on CMA CGM: We Oppose Stopping Plastic Waste

Not long ago, liner giant CMA CGM announced that it has banned all ships from transporting plastic waste, a move that has received support from NGOs.

But Maersk recently expressed a different view. The shipping company, also headquartered in Europe, warned that stopping the transportation of plastic waste will not only not improve the marine environment, but may also prevent the transportation of this waste to recyclable sites.

The NGO Plastic Change has urged Maersk to stop shipping plastic waste after rival CMA CGM announced it would no longer ship plastic waste for environmental reasons. Louise Lerche-Gredal, head of Plastic Change, wrote in an article, “It is time for Maersk to take a stance on whether they will continue to be part of the waste transport issue. Plastic waste not only contributes to pollution, it also contributes to the climate crisis. , and affect the most vulnerable societies in the world.”

Maersk said it would not do what CMA CGM did because banning the transport of plastic waste due to environmental concerns is not a good idea. "We do not think a blanket ban on the transport of plastic waste is feasible because such a ban would prevent us from helping responsible companies and organisations to transport plastic waste and other recycled materials to recycling sites in a responsible manner."

According to a Feb. 11 press release from CMA CGM, the decision to stop shipping plastic waste comes as the French carrier wants to work to prevent plastic waste from being "exported to destinations where sorting, recycling or recycling cannot be guaranteed." “About 10 million tons of plastic waste ends up in the ocean every year. If we don’t take action, this number will triple to 29 million tons per year in the next 20 years, which will cause irreversible damage to marine ecosystems, flora and fauna ."

CMA CGM said it transported around 500,000 tonnes of plastic waste in 2021. Maersk doesn't disclose the volume of veteran plastic waste shipped, but according to Plastic Change, Maersk ranks third.

Maersk emphasizes that it is "a responsible company and we of course take environmental protection seriously. Ensuring compliance with all legal and regulatory procedures regarding the import and export of plastic waste has always been embedded in our business and daily activities."

Maersk also works with an ocean cleanup organization. The organization recycles plastic waste in the Pacific, and stopping the shipment of plastic waste will prevent Maersk from assisting the organization in delivering the collected plastic to recycling sites.

What is the difference between overseas warehouse and FBA?

  • FBA, or Fulfillment by Amazon, means that sellers send products sold on Amazon directly to local warehouses. When a customer places an order, the Amazon system automatically completes the delivery.
  • Overseas warehouses refer to storage facilities established overseas. Cross-border e-commerce enterprises export goods to overseas warehouses in batches according to general trade methods. Once the order is placed, the item is delivered to the consumer.

Advantages of overseas warehouses

Faster delivery. It effectively reduces order response time by 50-70% compared to shipping from China. Additionally, it improves user experience and greatly reduces product turnaround time.

Reduce logistics costs. Through centralized delivery to overseas warehouses, local express delivery in the United States can reduce delivery costs by 30-50%.

FBA inventory adjustment is easy. For sellers, the overseas warehouse is the buffer warehouse of Amazon FBA, which is convenient and flexible to adjust the FBA inventory.

Disadvantages of overseas warehouses

Pay storage fees. The use of overseas warehouses requires payment of a certain fee, which is generally charged on a daily basis. And the cost of warehousing in different countries is also different, and sellers need to calculate the cost by themselves.

In stock. The premise of entering overseas warehouses is that sellers need to have a certain amount of inventory, which means that they need to stock up in advance, which will bring the risk of slow sales. And not suitable for sellers who sell special customized products.

Cash flow is inconvenient. Due to the large amount of stocking to overseas warehouses, the capital investment in stocking, logistics, warehousing, etc. is large, which can easily lead to a breakdown in the capital chain.

Sellers have high requirements for warehouse management data monitoring. Sellers need to monitor the detailed data of incoming and outgoing shipments, as well as putting on and off the shelves, otherwise it will easily lead to loss of goods or data mismatch. Some Amazon sellers responded that the inventory quantity did not match the actual number of products sold. Since Amazon has a complete warehouse management system, third-party overseas warehouses cannot guarantee that there will be no problems.

In essence, there is no difference between overseas warehouses and FBA. Both provide sellers with comprehensive warehousing and fulfillment services. However, there are obvious differences between the two in terms of service content and form.

1. The difference between service providers: FBA is Amazon's official warehouse distribution service, and after-sales service is provided by Amazon; overseas warehouses are provided by third-party service providers, responsible for the warehousing and distribution of sellers' products.

2. Different service forms. Once the seller has sent the goods to FBA, there is no need to deal with shipping related issues. The whole process from sorting to shipping is completed by FBA. The overseas warehouse is divided into two parts, first sorting and packaging in the warehouse, and then entrusting the local express company to complete the delivery service.

3. The service content is different. The service content of FBA is relatively simple, that is, it simply helps sellers deliver goods. The service content of overseas warehouses is more abundant. In addition to basic warehouse distribution, it also provides related services such as labeling and labeling, single-piece delivery, transit replenishment, quality inspection, and front-end logistics. For example, worry-free overseas warehouses can also realize customized services according to customer requirements.

4. Overall price difference. Combining all services, FBA is more expensive, while the overall cost-effectiveness of overseas warehouses is higher.

Other differences

Choose:

Amazon FBA warehouse has certain restrictions on the size, weight and category of products, so the choice is biased towards small, high and high-quality products

DH overseas warehouses have a wider range of choices than FBA warehouses.

Product:

FBA does not provide assembly services, and requires sellers to affix the outer box label and product label before entering the warehouse. If the product label is found to be damaged, it will be returned for repair.

DH overseas warehouses will provide sorting and assembly services before products are put on the shelves.