Shippers must prepare for events in which the tight container market may not normalize until 2024, according to a new analysis by McKinsey & Company. But the consultancy told ShippingWatch that shipping rates could end up being 50% higher than pre-pandemic figures.
The container market has been strained since mid-2020 due to the huge demand for goods in the United States, port closures due to the pandemic, container shortages and extreme congestion at the world's largest and most important container ports.
The result of the tight market is the soaring of container freight rates. The revenue and profit of container shipping companies in the past two years have experienced historic growth. Last year, the total revenue of the top ten shipping companies exceeded 100 billion US dollars. The punctuality rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade.
Some shipper companies, which are customers of container shipping companies, have not stopped complaining about these situations for a long time, and they even believe that container shipping companies should be more strictly regulated.
But this recent McKinsey report throws cold water on shippers.
McKinsey, one of the world's largest management consulting firms, expressed its views on the current container shipping market in a report entitled "Navigating the current disruption in containerized logistics". A large number of new ships have been ordered to expand capacity, but the normalization of the container shipping industry may still be delayed until the first quarter. If the situation is worse, normalization of the market may take until after 2024.
McKinsey also noted that container freight rates will remain high for most of 2022, while disruptions to the container logistics supply chain will continue.
Steve Saxon, a McKinsey partner who is now a container market analyst based in McKinsey's Shenzhen office, said that if you asked us a few months ago for our views on the future of the container industry, we might also lean towards a positive (recovery) view. But right now, McKinsey is leaning more toward a pessimistic outlook -- bad news from a shipper's perspective.
McKinsey proposes four possibilities for the future development of the container shipping market.
In the most optimistic case, the container shipping market may return to normal in the third quarter of 2022. Normal freight volumes, normal capacity offers, and normal freight rates.
But McKinsey also said that the most optimistic scenario may not be possible.
LCL cargo refers to the small-ticket goods that are not filled with a full box. Usually, the bulk cargo consolidation contractor collects the goods separately, and collects them at the container freight station or inland station, and then assembles two or more tickets. Within a container, it is also required to be unpacked at the destination container freight station or inland station for separate delivery.
For this kind of goods, the carrier is responsible for the packing and unpacking operations, and the packing and unpacking fees are charged to the cargo party.
In international trade, companies often fail to ship the goods due to various reasons, so they have to bear the corresponding loss of LCL costs. The most important thing is that many shippers are not very aware of these costs, so they are hard to guard against.
What is the LCL loss fee?
In the process of LCL export by sea, after 11:00 noon on the working day before the cut-off date of the order, the goods could not be shipped in time due to the reasons of the booker, resulting in the vacancy of the LCL company's space, and the LCL company sent the booking company accordingly. The fee charged by the cabin crew to make up for the loss.
How is the loss fee calculated?
Forklift handling container box loading to freight train
(1) Algorithm based on full load (standard cubic number): The calculation of the deficit fee is based on the cost of vacant space.
The specific calculation formula is: difference fee u003d booking billing cubic x (full container freight + full container shipping port cost) / standard cubic number. For example, the FCL is 2000usd (the freight paid by the LCL company to the shipping company), the port miscellaneous fee is 800usd, the container type is 20GP, the number of defective products is 8CBM, and then: (2000+800)/25x8u003d896usd. (2) When quoting customers, it is charged according to the simple calculation rate: loss fee u003d price per cubic meter x number of invoicers of lost goods.
For example, if you quote 50usd/cbm to the customer and 5cbm to the lost cargo, you will lose the cabin fee u003d50x5u003d250usd (3) Lost Cabin feeu003d (FCL fee/number of billing parties in the cabinet) x number of billing parties Lost goods
For example: if the cost of the whole box is 2000usd, the chargeable amount of the goods in the container is 20cbm, and the chargeable amount of the out of stock is 8cbm, then: the loss fee u003d 2000/20x8u003d800usd. The calculation results of the above three methods are different. Usually the third method calculates the least freight loss, but few LCL companies will calculate the freight loss according to the first method. Unless it is an important customer with good cooperation, the LCL company may consider the third type, or even a reduction. Lost Cabin Fee
Common reasons and preventive measures
(1) The owner of the cargo is too late to enter the warehouse or the person who temporarily cancels the shipment, but the booking person fails to cancel the booking in time. Precautions: Please keep the freight forwarder regularly in communication with the owner before the customs cut-off date and provide timely feedback. And inform the cargo owner that he has the responsibility to notify, otherwise it will incur loss of shipping charges.
(2) A larger proportion of super square/reduced square/overweight. Precaution: Please ask the freight forwarder to ask the owner of the consignment to be consistent with the actual cargo as much as possible, and notify in time if there is any change .
(3) After the goods have entered the warehouse, it is found that the characteristics or specifications of the goods cannot be carried, such as "liquid/dangerous goods/oversized and overweight items". Precautions: Please inform the freight forwarder not to accept liquid/dangerous goods/semi-dangerous goods, and oversize and overweight items must be confirmed in advance.
(4) The customs inspection resulted in the inability to ship in time. Precautions: Please ask the freight forwarder to require the owner of the declaration to be consistent with the bill, the documents and the goods. If the customs has any questions, please cooperate with the customs broker of the freight forwarding company to reply to the customs in time and clearly. What are the requirements of the customs to cooperate as far as possible to ensure timely shipment of the goods.
Prevention: Please ask the freight forwarder to require the owner to declare the same documents, documents, and goods. If the customs has any questions, please cooperate with the customs declarers of the freight forwarding company to reply to the customs in a timely and clear manner. What are the requirements of the customs to cooperate as much as possible to ensure that the goods are shipped in time.
In a nutshell, the most important thing for the prevention of LCL loss is to maintain close and good communication between the cargo owner and the freight forwarder. At the same time, the freight forwarder is dedicated to solving problems for the owner in a timely manner, and the owner should also trust the forwarder and meet each other frankly.
A bill of lading is a document that certifies the contract of carriage of goods by sea and that the carrier has received or loaded the goods and guarantees that the carrier will deliver the goods in accordance with the contract. Since the goods can only be picked up by the bill of lading, in international trade, especially under the conditions of FOB and CFR, the bill of lading is of great significance and is considered to be the representative and sign of the goods.
However, since only one set of bills of lading can be issued for one shipment of goods, and the bill of lading is a negotiable document, once the bill of lading is lost, it will have a great impact on the development of foreign trade, which may cause the seller to fail to settle foreign exchange and the buyer to pick up the goods.
What is a bill of lading?
A bill of lading (BOL or B/L) is a shipping document whereby the carrier is obliged to deliver the goods at a named place.
The bill of lading is also proof that the contract is signed before the bill of lading is handed over to the master.
For more information on bills of lading, see our article - Bills of Lading.
Lost bill of lading
Losing a bill of lading can be a big problem as ocean carriers deliver containers against it. Missing this document may prevent us from picking up your order.
Downtime or demurrage charges may apply if containers remain in port for too long.
What to do if OBL is lost..??
Here are some steps you can take if a negotiable bill of lading is lost, stolen or destroyed
1. Pictures of lost bills Advertise in local media about the "lost" or "obsolete" original bills 2. Security may be obtained by a court order advising the carrier (shipping line) to deliver the goods to the owner of the goods, subject to the security provided by the goods claiming entity, in the amount of the court.. 3. The carrier shall also receive an indemnity letter to indemnify the carrier or any person injured by the delivery against liability under the unpaid original bill. The court may also order reasonable costs and attorneys' fees to be paid to the carrier. 4. Certain banks accept a letter of guarantee signed by the bank and the bank will be jointly and severally liable to return the original bill of lading (if found).
However, some precautions need to be taken, such as:
Advertising about damages is by no means a complete defense of liability for wrongful delivery.
This is only evidence that the loss occurred and that the original owner had the intention to cancel the original bill of lading issued.
The carrier should know who owns the goods and only issue copies to that entity, as in some cases an entity that does not own the goods has advertised the loss and persuaded the carrier to issue a second set of originals, while the first still remains. In the hands of its rightful owners, nothing was actually lost.
It should be treated differently according to different situations:
Under a named bill of lading: the carrier may deliver the goods to the consignee of a named bill of lading after receiving the consignee's company guarantee and the consignor's written assurance that the goods are to be handed over to the consignee.
Under the order bill of lading: if the port of discharge agent receives a request from the consignee that the bill of lading is lost and cannot take delivery of the goods against this bill of lading, the consignee shall be required to present the original/copy of the bill of lading issued by the original carrier, commercial invoice, commercial Documents such as contracts and packing lists to check whether the consignee is the consignee. The port of discharge agent should also require the consignee to provide a form of guarantee issued by a first-class bank that meets certain standards. At the same time, the agent of the port of discharge should ask the agent of the port of loading to contact the consignor on the bill of lading to obtain the consignor's consent. In this case A written guarantee that the shipment is released to the consignee.
Under the bearer bill of lading: refer to the instruction bill of lading for specific practices. If the consignee returns the full set of original bills of lading, the letter of guarantee can be returned to the consignee. If the consignee cannot return the full set of original bills of lading, in principle, the letter of guarantee shall be retained indefinitely. If the consignee makes a return request, the port of discharge agent shall retain a minimum period according to the law of the host country. The domestic port proposal needs to be kept for 6 years. After the bill of lading is lost, contact the shipping company immediately to control the cargo, no matter what the circumstances. In this way, losses can be reduced, and at the same time, the rights and interests of the receiver and the consignor will not be damaged.
Due to various reasons of the ship, cargo, port and other aspects, the ship party increases expenses or suffers economic losses when transporting goods. In order to compensate for these expenses or losses, the ship party stipulates additional charges in addition to the basic rate. Call Surcharge or Additional.
There are many types of surcharges, and as some circumstances change, new surcharges may be removed or established. This article is to sort out the more commonly used shipping surcharges at present, hoping to help you better understand the shipping surcharges (so as not to be pitted).
emergency fuel surcharge
The last bunker-related line in this list of ocean surcharges is the emergency bunker surcharge. This fee is imposed by the carrier when fuel prices rise sharply. Because it makes it more expensive to run ships and move containers around the world.
This is another surcharge that you can't stop.
Comprehensive rate increase surcharge GRI
The full name of GRI is General Rate Increase. It is generally used on South American routes and American routes. Due to various reasons such as ports, ships, fuel oil, cargo or other aspects, the shipping company's transportation costs have increased significantly. In order to compensate for these increased expenses, the shipowners add a comprehensive rate increase surcharge.
Peak Season Surcharge PSS
The full name of PSS is Peak Season Surcharge. This fee is generally charged by many shipping companies for excuses when the freight is busy in the peak season, which is somewhat similar to the price increase in my country's "Spring Festival". April to November each year is generally the peak season for world freight.
Terminal handling fee THC
The full name of THC is Terminal Handling Charge. It can be further divided into OTHC-Origin Terminal Handling Charge, which is the terminal operation fee at the port of departure and DTHC-Destination Terminal Handling Charge, which is the terminal operation fee at the destination port.
Out of spec
If the cargo is oversized, it means that the cargo cannot fit into the hexagonal container due to its size. In this case, you'll have to pay an oversize fee because the cargo will take up more space, require extra material to secure, and mean less space to stack the containers.
Origin Receipt Charge ORC
The full name is Original Receiving Charge local receiving fee/origin receiving fee/origin receiving fee. This fee is more complicated, and it is both different and related to the terminal operating fee THC. ORC is only available in southern China, mainly in Guangdong ports, while THC is available in all ports (including those in Guangdong). There is only one charge for ORC and THC - if you charge ORC, you don't charge for THC. If you receive THC, you will not receive ORC again.
ORC is specially designed for shipping from various ports in southern China, and the destination ports are these ocean routes such as North America, Central and South America, Europe and North Africa. Ports in southern China to other destination ports, such as Southeast Asia, are the same as ports in other regions, and only collect THC.
Overload surcharge
There is no way to bypass the heavy load surcharge if you are shipping unusually heavy shipments. This is a charge because heavy cargo is more difficult to load and unload than light cargo. However, these types of cargo also require specialized equipment such as cranes. A surcharge helps make up for this.
Port Congestion Surcharge PCS
The full name is Port Congestion Surcharge. When the port is crowded or particularly busy, the waiting time and schedule of the ship will be extended, and the port berthing fees such as tugboat fees may also increase, which will cause a substantial increase in transportation costs. In order to make up for this cost loss, the shipping company will charge the shipper. Port congestion surcharge.
Container Imbalance Surcharge CIC
The full name of CIC is Container Imbalance Charge, sometimes called Container Imbalance Surcharge. This fee is a surcharge imposed by the shipping company in order to make up for the cost of shipping empty containers due to the imbalance of trade volume or seasonal changes resulting in the imbalance of cargo flow and containers.
For most of 2020, the Port of Los Angeles has been struggling to deal with the problem of container surplus. Now that there has been a dramatic turning point, the Port of Los Angeles has also experienced a shortage of containers.
According to the latest statistics from Container xChange, a professional organization in the container monitoring field, the Container Availability Index for 40-foot containers in the Port of Los Angeles has dropped to 0.29.
Container xChange’s marketing director explained: “In the 49th week of 2020, the port’s availability index value for 20-foot containers and 40-foot containers plummeted to 0.27. Compared with the average index from week 1 to week 8 of 2020, these two Both containers dropped by 57%."
It is understood that when the container availability index is 0.5, it represents market balance. If it is less than 0.5, it represents a shortage of containers.
This means that the Port of Los Angeles has a serious shortage of containers.
In the previous Port of Los Angeles, due to the large increase in import volume and the epidemic factor, the port was congested on a large scale, and the efficiency of container turnover was very slow. At the peak, 10,000-15,000 containers were stranded at the terminal, and normal operations were severely affected.
According to a research report jointly issued by Container xChange and FraunhoferCML, a maritime logistics research organization, in the third quarter of 2020, there will be approximately 1.5 million containers in the United States with a turnover time of more than 115 days, while the normal average time should be less than 80 days.
Previously, due to the large backlog of containers in the Port of Los Angeles affecting the supply chain, liner companies conducted large-scale empty container deployment to ensure the normal operation of trans-Pacific routes.
As empty containers continue to be shipped back to the Asian market, the situation at the Port of Los Angeles has undergone a dramatic turn.
The industry also analyzes that the current shortage of containers in the Port of Los Angeles is related to the serious port congestion, the imbalance of market supply and demand, and the labor shortage caused by the outbreak of the Los Angeles Port.
Container xChange CEO Johannes Schlingmeier previously stated that since the summer of 2020, the U.S. container transportation supply chain has been under pressure, and the Port of Los Angeles is facing labor shortages caused by the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Lars Jensen, CEO of Sea Intelligence, an industry consulting firm, believes: "The main reason for the lack of containers is port congestion."
Regarding when the container shortage will be resolved, Container xChange predicts: "In the next few weeks, as every link in the trans-Pacific route supply chain will face tremendous pressure, container supply will fluctuate further."
Nerijus Poskus, vice president of shipping at Flexport in the United States, believes that the shortage of containers may improve in the second half of 2021.
Lars Jensen said that the lack of containers in the Port of Los Angeles should be resolved before the summer of 2021.
He further explained: "After the international financial crisis in 2008, we also experienced a shortage of containers. The shortage of containers in 2010 took about 3 months from the appearance to the resolution. If we put it now Under the same background, it means that the current lack of containers in the Port of Los Angeles may also be resolved soon."
In recent days, the shipping industry has been in a panic due to the shortage of containers, and ocean freight has soared abnormally, which has affected the supply chain of the manufacturing industry.
However, currently, according to an indicator that tracks global shipping containers, the global shipping shortage seems to be showing signs of easing.
The "Available Container Index" developed by the online platform Container xChange shows that this index can be maintained between 0.35 and 0.38 until the Chinese New Year in mid-February.
This index: if it falls at 0.5, it means that the supply and demand of containers is in balance; if it is lower than 0.5, it means that the supply of containers is in short supply; if it is higher than 0.5, it means that the supply is oversupply.
When the shortage of containers was the most serious last month, the index fell to an ultra-low level of 0.06 to 0.13 depending on the size of the container, and the index began to rebound this month.
It is reported that the imbalance of container shortages in 2020 will be particularly serious in Shanghai. As the Chinese factories resumed production after the epidemic eased, the demand for goods exported to the United States surged, but no empty containers were found to deliver goods out of the port.
But Container xChange said that the situation is now moving towards a normal level .
"One of the main reasons for the improvement in the imbalance between supply and demand is that the shipping industry has made every effort to transport a large number of empty containers from the world's major congested ports back to China. The Lunar New Year may become a turning point for the lack of containers. The Lunar New Year holiday starts on February 11. "
Port of Los Angeles, USA
According to media reports, at present, many shipping companies are eager to ship empty containers back to China from the Port of Los Angeles in the United States and refuse to carry American goods. This has largely alleviated the current shortage of containers, but it has caused the export of American agricultural products to suffer.
For this reason, the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has stated that it will investigate shipping companies' refusal to load American agricultural products and transport empty containers to them. If the investigation is unreasonable, it will impose a fine.
US financial website CNBC reported that from October to November last year, it was the peak season for American agricultural products exports. Shipping companies refused to carry hundreds of millions of dollars worth of American agricultural products exports, and would rather take the time to ship empty containers back to mainland China ports to load profits. Higher Chinese export products.
So FMC launched an investigation and reviewed data from several key ports in California, New York, and New Jersey to find out whether the shipping company’s refusal to carry violated the Maritime Act.
According to FMC's survey, data from the Port of Los Angeles, the Port of Long Beach, New York and the Port of New Jersey, in October and November last year, it is estimated that as many as 178,000 standard containers were rejected. CNBC estimated the value of the affected agricultural products based on the export price of each TEU soybean/oil seed/grain item on the U.S. Bureau of Statistics website in the Port of Los Angeles.
However, industry insiders said that although shipping companies’ refusal to carry US agricultural products has caused losses to US exports, it has indeed alleviated the shortage of containers in global shipping to a certain extent in the near future, which is expected to be alleviated in the Lunar New Year.
my country is the largest producer, exporter and consumer of toys. At the beginning of this year, affected by the epidemic, Guangdong toy companies lost a large number of foreign orders. The pressure on the industry was huge. Since the second half of the year, the entire industry has continued to pick up, and some companies even have "exports". The situation of “explosive orders”.
But the good and the bad are mixed. Due to the shortage of containers, a large backlog of goods has caused difficulties in delivery. Thousands of containers filled with toys ordered by overseas toy retailers before Christmas are still stuck in ports!
Hot toy export manufacturers' orders will be scheduled until March next year
In a building block factory, the person in charge told reporters that under the epidemic this year, their sales have not fallen but increased. The 5000 square meter factory has been transformed into fully automated production. In the past, more than 200 workers were required to work at the same time, but now they have replaced it. 32 robots work overtime 24 hours a day .
In this toy company in Chenghai District, Shantou City, Guangdong, the reporter saw a busy scene on the production line. The person in charge said that the epidemic did have some impact on them at the beginning of the year, but since April and May, the order volume began to rise. At present, they are running at full power and producing 24 hours a day, but they still cannot meet the needs of overseas customers, and some products are "out of stock".
The person in charge of another toy company that mainly sells overseas said that they did not anticipate the rapid recovery of orders. Due to the shortage of manpower, this year's orders could not be delivered in time for the year before, and new orders for next year are still being found. .
According to data provided by the China Toys and Baby Products Association, due to the impact of the epidemic, the monthly export growth rate of Chinese traditional toys was negative from January to June this year. Starting from July, the monthly export growth rate has turned negative to positive, reaching 21.1%, exports from January to October reached 26.36 billion US dollars, and the cumulative growth rate turned negative to positive, reaching 1.4%. In November, it maintained sustained growth, with exports of 3.89 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 50.8% year-on-year, the largest single-month increase since this year.
Busy production and delivery toy manufacturers are mixed
Toy exports continued to rise, and toy factories received soft orders. At the same time, manufacturers had new troubles.
The reporter saw in a toy factory in Dongguan, Guangdong that there were many products to be shipped stacked in the factory, and only one truck was being loaded. The person in charge said that their customers are mainly large supermarkets and brand toy factories in Europe and the United States. They had to load 30 or 40 cars a day during the peak period. However, the current shortage of containers and the continuous increase in order volume, they are busy with production and worry about delivery. .
Guangdong has a large number of toy companies, with production capacity accounting for more than 70% of the country. The reporter found during a visit to many toy factories in Guangdong that the current export-oriented companies have encountered a shortage of containers. "Lack of containers" is the most common discussion among toy owners. topic. Yuan Moumou is the warehouse supervisor of a toy factory. When the reporter followed him to the warehouse, he found that a large amount of inventory was waiting to be shipped, and even the products produced in April had not been shipped.
The reporter learned during the interview that the current foreign trade toy factories are experiencing varying degrees of product backlog, and the uncertainty of overseas epidemics has slowed the circulation cycle of containers. The Jumbo Group, the largest toy retailer in Greece, said recently that due to the new crown epidemic, thousands of containers full of toys ordered by them in the months before Christmas are still stranded in the port.
Significant increase in export orders from auto parts factories! Orders skyrocketed by 100%, and orders are scheduled until April next year!
Beginning in September this year, the export value of auto parts has reached a new high for three consecutive months. In November, the export of auto parts increased by 41.9% year-on-year. According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in November this year, the export value of auto parts was 5.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.8% month-on-month and 41.9% year-on-year.
The export orders of auto parts factories have increased greatly, and the full production capacity is too late to ship! A person in charge of a wheel production plant in Jinhua, Zhejiang said that all production lines of the plant are operating at full capacity. Due to the substantial increase in export orders this year, one plant is still too busy to produce. Starting from the second half of the year, export orders have grown relatively fast. In the third quarter, compared with the same period last year, it increased by about 50%. In the fourth quarter, we increased by about 100%.
In another factory in Taizhou, Zhejiang that produces automobile shock absorbers, workers are working overtime and production is busy. The person in charge of the company told reporters that the orders received so far have been scheduled to April next year. In the early stage of the epidemic, in March, April and May, our orders were reduced by a certain percentage compared to 2019. Since July, the proportion of orders received has increased by nearly 126%. After August and September, it has increased by about 50% every month.
During the interview, container trucks continued to come to the factory to pick up goods. There were many products waiting to be shipped on both sides of the roads of the factory. The warehouse was also full. Due to the large number of orders this year and the shortage of export containers, many products have not had time to ship.
Yang Fudong, Special Assistant to the Secretary-General of the After-sales Parts Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that more than 70% of China's auto parts exports are used in the independent after-sales market of automobiles. The automotive after-sales market has grown very fast in recent years. The increase in car ownership and the increase in car service life will drive the demand for auto parts. The longer the service life of the car, the faster the replacement frequency of auto parts.
When the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, telecommuting and home isolation have become the norm. The suspension of offline transactions in the past has accelerated the shift of international trade to online. In this context, China's foreign trade exports have accelerated recovery, especially the rapid increase in cross-border e-commerce orders.
Recently, the "home economy" related products represented by furniture, home appliances, toys, and daily necessities have continued to explode. China’s small commodity export orders have surged, and many manufacturers’ orders have already been scheduled to 2021.
Correspondingly, due to the imbalance of China's import and export trade, container shipping export freight rates remain high, and containers are "difficult to find". These problems have become more prominent under the stimulation of huge transportation demand.
The explosive growth of export orders and thorny transportation problems have put Chinese exporters facing tremendous pressure and challenges.
Export orders soared, shipping costs soared
"This time of the year is the peak season. In previous years, the factory was very busy and the number of offline purchases was countless. This year, affected by the epidemic, almost all of them have adopted online ordering." Wan Rufang, general manager of Zhejiang Fengfan Stainless Steel Products Co., Ltd., told China A reporter from Aviation Weekly said.
Ju Jianshuang, general manager of Shanghai Jiesheng Furniture Co., Ltd. also introduced: "Compared with last year, this year our company's export orders have increased by about 10%."
But the headache for these exporters is that although the volume of export orders has exploded, their profits have not risen but fallen. The main reason is that the increase in shipping costs is even more alarming.
At the beginning of this year, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic caused most Chinese companies to stop work and production, leading to the cancellation of many orders and a decline in freight volume. Shipping companies have also adopted measures such as reducing capacity and reducing voyage density in response to market changes. However, shortly afterwards, the epidemic in China was effectively controlled, and companies gradually resumed work and production, exports basically recovered, and freight volumes rebounded rapidly.
However, judging from the market reaction, the shipping company's capacity increase did not match the cargo volume, which caused the freight rate to rise all the way. The direct reason for the recent sharp increase in freight rates is that the overseas epidemic has affected the efficiency of port loading and unloading. At the same time, the logistics turnover is not smooth, the shortage of containers is very prominent, and the supply and demand are seriously mismatched. For this reason, shipping companies have begun to levy congestion surcharges, peak season surcharges, and lack of containers surcharges.
Latest SCFI data
According to the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 18, the market price of Shanghai’s exports to European basic ports (including maritime surcharges) was US$3,124/TEU, an increase of 6.0% from a week ago. Compared with the US$1,508/TEU a month ago, it has doubled.
The price of US$3,124/TEU on the Asia-Europe route is the highest ever since SCFI was released in 2009.
During the same period, the market prices (including shipping surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to basic ports in the West and East of the United States were 3,900 US dollars/FEU and 4874 US dollars/FEU, which were also at historical highs.
Cai Jiaxiang, vice chairman of the China Association of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Enterprises, said bluntly: "Sometimes, the sum of various surcharges even exceeds the freight."
Exporters' profit shrinking affects foreign trade stability in the long term
It is understood that about 80% to 90% of foreign trade export enterprises in China sign the FOB clause in the export contract, that is, the buyer pays for the freight.
Cai Jiaxiang analyzed: "In a short period of time, because Chinese exporters who sign FOB clauses will pay the freight by the buyer, it will not be greatly affected in the early stage of the price increase. But from a long-term perspective, if the freight continues to rise, the export The business is bound to be affected to a certain extent."
He took the US importer as an example. If the buyer needs to pay up to 5,000 US dollars in freight per box for a long time, the buyer's import cost will be greatly increased, and the Chinese exporters may be required to share the high freight.
Even if the Chinese exporters who sign the FOB clause do not need to bear the ocean freight, they still have to pay for the transportation costs of the goods from the factory to the dock. At present, affected by the lack of containers, exporters can only obtain empty containers by waiting for empty containers or raising the price. In order to ensure shipments, most exporters will choose to increase the price to pick up the box, which also increases the export cost of Chinese exporters.
More importantly, the continued high freight rates will also affect the purchasing power of overseas consumers. Due to the increase in costs and the substitutability of some commodities, importers may consider whether to use substitutes when choosing commodities.
Wan Rufang said: “Our company’s order volume from August to October was relatively large. Compared with March to June, it has doubled. But starting from November, some countries have adopted closed measures and freight Excessively high, to a large extent affect the customer's purchase volume."
On the other hand, the Chinese exporters who signed the CIF clauses, as they directly bear the export freight, have a deeper understanding of the pain points of high freight, and it has effectively affected their own profits.
Ju Jianshuang's company faced this situation. He reluctantly said: "Our company is mainly based on signing CIF contract terms. In most cases, the ocean freight of exported goods is borne by us. The recent rapid increase in freight has caused the company's costs to rise sharply, and the monthly profit is about reduced. 600,000 yuan."
Ju Jianshuang said that the high freight rates are too burdensome for companies that "small profits but quicker sales" and mainly out-of-stock volume. "We will consider negotiating with customers to postpone shipments or raise prices appropriately. But the main solution is to give up some profits by the company itself to maintain normal operations."
He believes that a balance should be maintained between production companies and transportation companies to ensure the living space of both parties.
However, even in the current era of "hard to find a box" and frequent freight charges, seaborne export is still the first choice for Chinese exporters.
There are two main reasons for this. One is the export destinations of some exporters, such as the United States, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore and other countries. These destinations cannot deliver goods by means of transportation other than sea or air, and air transportation has certain transportation restrictions and the freight rate is too high. , Most exporters will not consider; second, although shipping costs have risen sharply, they are still lower than road, rail, air and other transportation methods. At the same time, shipping has greater advantages in capacity and can better meet the needs of Chinese exporters.
Cai Jiaxiang further explained: "In the early days, shipping goods to Europe via the China-Europe Express train cost about US$10,000 per TEU. At present, although the freight rate of the China-Europe Express train has been lowered to US$7,000-8,000 per TEU, the price is still higher than that of ocean freight. From the perspective of many Chinese exporters, price is more important than speed."
Chinese and U.S. regulators frequently call for exporters to restore capacity
In response to the current difficulties faced by Chinese exporters, the Ministry of Commerce of China has paid close attention and responded publicly.
Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a recent press conference that many countries around the world are facing similar problems in foreign trade logistics due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The mismatch between supply and demand of capacity is the direct cause of the increase in freight rates. Factors such as poor container turnover have indirectly pushed up shipping costs and reduced logistics efficiency.
Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce
He further emphasized: "The Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to increase capacity allocation, support accelerated container return transportation, improve operational efficiency, and support container manufacturing enterprises to expand production capacity. At the same time, it will increase market supervision and strive to stabilize market prices. Provide strong logistics support for the stable development of foreign trade."
Prior to this, the regulatory authorities of China, the United States and other countries have also stated that they will pay close attention to issues such as rising freight rates in the shipping market.
In September of this year, the Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China interviewed all shipping companies operating China-US liner routes, emphasizing that it will strengthen the supervision of China-US routes, requiring that the capacity, routes and schedules must be filed, and freight and all surcharges must be regulated. reasonable.
Also in September, the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) also issued a warning to shipping companies that it would crack down on potential violations of competition laws. Soon after, FMC also announced the toughest measures to increase the supervision of the three major shipping alliances in response to issues such as freight and demurrage. It is required that shipping alliances must submit specific trade data to FMC every month, whereas previously it was only required to submit every quarter.
In this regard, Cai Jiaxiang said that the European and American regulatory policies are relatively timely. The EU has the most stringent anti-monopoly issues, and the United States is not inferior. These areas have achieved certain results in freight control, and prices are relatively stable.
Regarding the domestic export trade market, Cai Jiaxiang believes that “restoring the original normal capacity and flight density is the top priority to solve the problem.”
He further stated that the voice of the Ministry of Commerce can improve the current market conditions to a certain extent, but it still needs to increase efforts. "Call on the Ministry of Transport to interview shipping companies to restore normal capacity and flight density, and the State Administration for Market Supervision and Administration will use anti-monopoly laws reasonably and adopt legal weapons to cut the root cause of shipping problems." Cai Jiaxiang said.
Small containers are becoming a key factor affecting the global trade industry chain.
At the moment, in the field of foreign trade, it has become a consensus that “the one who gets the container gets the world”, and the lack of containers has become a hurdle in the international logistics chain. It can be said that I am in a hurry here, and you are looking forward to it.
Since July this year, China’s export volume has risen sharply, and both the shipping market and the China-Europe freight train market have seen shortages of containers, soaring freight rates, and delayed turnover.
Statistics from the China Container Association show that China’s export containers are mainly satisfied in two ways: unloading old containers after unloading at ports, and new containers made by Chinese container manufacturers.
At present, my country can only return one for every 3.5 containers exported. A large number of empty containers are backlogged in the United States, Europe and Australia, and there is a shortage of containers in Asia.
Containers that are usually returned within 60 days are now delayed to 100 days, and the cost of renting containers has also increased by about 150%.
Zhang Jun, deputy general manager of Qingdao Port QQCT, said:
Under normal circumstances, if 1,000 containers are needed in the current period, there will usually be 1,200 to 1,300 containers waiting at the port. However, when containers are now in short supply, there may be only 800 to 900 containers at the terminal.
Nowadays, in addition to the hard to find a box, there is also a "hard to get a cabin."
The lack of shipping company capacity is the beginning of the nightmare of freight forwarders.
After the suspension, in addition to high freight rates, freight forwarders are faced with the realistic challenge of "bursting cabins".
The relationship with the shipping company is the "most familiar stranger", and the freight forwarder who can't pay the high price can't book the space at all, and the long-term customer's cargo cannot enter the port and board the ship on time.
After the "explosive cabin", due to insufficient space, the shipping company will detain many of the space booked by the freight forwarder on the next flight in order to maximize the benefits. You know, "drop the container".
For large freight forwarders, the losses caused by dumping containers may still be within the tolerable range.
For those small and medium freight forwarders who rely on a few large customers themselves, the disadvantage of insufficient competitiveness in this case may directly lead to their fall.
As the "middleman" between the customer and the shipping company, the explosion of warehouses at the end of the year made the freight forwarding "messy in the cold wind" gradually.
The freight forwarding industry is already facing a situation where the strong will remain strong and the weak will remain weak.
However, freight forwarders serving some special categories will be in a better position because they have their own unique competitive advantages.
On the 17th, Hapag-Lloyd's official website issued an announcement that due to continuous unforeseen operational challenges, it is still facing extremely tight equipment.
Hapag-Lloyd supports all confirmed bookings, but it does not rule out the possibility of cancellation.
At the moment it can be said that: I grabbed the space and lacked the box; I grabbed the box and lacked the space; I grabbed the box and the space , but the freight rate has risen again.······
In response to the current serious shortage of containers in the Asian market, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Habben Jansen recently stated that “the congestion of the port and the strong demand in the market have caused the increase in traffic to exacerbate this problem. This kind of tension will continue for another 6-8 weeks. It will be alleviated.” The pressure on the supply chain caused by the shortage of containers in Asia will continue for at least another 6-8 weeks, which means that shortages will still be faced in the next two months, which will also affect shipments before the Spring Festival.
Container freight rates continue to soar, reaching high levels far above the long-term sustainable level. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) set a record of 2131.71 points, an increase of 162% over the same period last year. After experiencing a sharp increase in freight rates that initially lags behind the Pan-Pacific region, spot freight rates in northern Europe have soared up 230% compared to the same period last year. Moreover, the freight quotation in Asia and Northern Europe has reached US$10,000 per 40-foot high cabinet.
According to the shipping index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange in the latest issue, the overall export container shipping market in China remains high. The freight rates of most ocean routes operated steadily, and some increased significantly, and the composite index rose. On December 11, Shanghai's comprehensive export container freight index was 2311.71 points, an increase of 8.6% over the previous period.
Asia to Europe (Far East Europe Mediterranean route) : Near the end of the year, the volume of the European market remains high. The recurrence of the epidemic has also stimulated the growth of local import demand and strong transportation demand. The lack of containers in the market also affects European routes. Strong market demand and severe equipment shortages are expected to continue after the Spring Festival in 2021.
Last week, the average occupancy utilization rate of ships in Shanghai Port remained at the full level. Affected by this, most airlines increased their freight rates sharply in the middle of the month, and the spot market booking prices rose sharply. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the European basic port market was US$2,948/TEU, an increase of 24.2% from the previous period. In the Mediterranean route , the market situation is basically the same as that in Europe, and the spot market freight rate has risen sharply. On December 11, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the Mediterranean basic port market was 3073 US dollars/TEU, breaking the 3000 US dollars mark, an increase of 28.9% from the previous period.
However, there is news that the actual freight paid by the shipper is much higher in order to ensure the container and the final remaining European space . Lars Jensen of SeaIntelligence said that there is anecdotal evidence that the exact freight paid by shippers on the Asia-Northern Europe trade route may be as high as US$5,000 per TEU. Jensen explained: “In this case, it’s important to note that in some cases, SCFI underestimates the actual freight paid because there are additional costs related to equipment and space availability.”
A British freight forwarding company confirmed to The Loadstar that the freight quotation in Asia and Northern Europe has reached US$10,000 per 40-foot high container . "It's crazy," he said.
At the same time, all carriers will raise GRI again on December 15 . The current extreme shortage of 40-foot high cabinets suggests that alternative alternatives will continue to increase in freight rates this week; it is worth noting that due to port congestion and limited land capacity, cargo to the UK is subject to many restrictions, and delays and operational problems are expected. Some carriers stopped accepting bookings sent to the UK.
Due to the strong demand for containers and the backlog in recent weeks. CMA CMA CGM notified that it will temporarily stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe, that is, temporarily suspend bookings for the 49th, 50th and 51st week Asia-Northern Europe routes. Another shipping company recently told Asia-Northern Europe customers that if the shipment is cancelled within two weeks after the shipment date, it hopes to charge a fee of US$1,000 per TEU.
Asia to North America (trans-Pacific eastbound route): The US epidemic is showing a trend of major outbreaks, with new cases hitting new highs in a single day. Severe epidemics have caused frequent port congestion and blocked transit. The problem of equipment imbalance in Asia continues, and supply and demand are severely unbalanced. Ningbo Port, ports in Southeast Asia and Busan Port are the loading ports with the most serious equipment shortages. The carrier's cargo backlog has become more serious, and it is increasingly difficult to book containers.
Last week, the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to West and East US routes remained close to the full load level. The freight rate is high and stable, and the spot market booking price is basically the same as the previous period. SCFI data shows that the spot freight rate from Shanghai to the east coast of the United States increased by 104 U.S. dollars to 4804 U.S. dollars per FEU, an increase of 91% over the same period last year, while the freight rate to the U.S. West Coast was basically the same at 3,984 U.S. dollars/FEU. Nevertheless, it has increased by 188% compared to the same period last year.
There does not appear to be any sign of slowing down in freight volumes to the West Coast of the United States. The Port of Los Angeles expects that containers will increase by 48% and 44% in the next two weeks. The Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals are under tremendous pressure due to the sharp increase in throughput. According to forecasts, the total volume of the Port of Los Angeles in the fourth quarter will increase by 40% year-on-year, exceeding 850,000 TEUs. Ships are waiting at the anchorage in San Pedro Bay for a long time. 6 days.
Jon Monroe of Jon Monroe Consulting, Washington State, said: "Consumer recovery is gaining momentum. Black Friday sales have grown strongly, up 21% from last year. If you have not ordered the goods shipped before the Lunar New Year, you may be too late. Up."
South American routes: The raging epidemic has affected the production capacity of South American countries, their dependence on foreign materials is high, and transportation demand has remained high. In this period, most of the average space utilization of ships in Shanghai Port is at the full load level. Near the middle of the month, most airlines increased their booking prices, and the spot market freight rates rose. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the South American basic port market was 5876 US dollars/TEU, an increase of 12.5% from the previous period.
In other routes, SCFI's spot freight rates have risen almost across the board. For example, the freight rates from Asia to South Africa rose 15% this period to US$2,289 per TEU, an increase of 130% over the same period last year.
