After the freight rate in the trans-Pacific market has remained stable for a period of time, it has recently started a rising mode.
According to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (Freightos Baltic Daily Index), on December 28, 2020, the freight rate of the Asia-US West Coast route reached US$4,189/FEU, a record high, an increase of 8% from December 25, which is the year of 2019. 3 times over the same period.
At the same time, the freight rate of the Asia-US East Coast route also reached an astonishing US$5397/FEU, a 9% increase from December 25 and twice the rate of the same period in 2019.
According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 25, 2020, the freight rates (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the basic port markets of the West and the East of the United States were 4,080 USD/FEU and 4,876 USD/FEU, respectively. The US West route rose 4.6% from the previous week.
Analysts of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said that the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to the West and East U.S. routes maintained at a level close to full load. However, the U.S. epidemic has blocked the turnover of containers, and a large number of containers are stranded at the local terminal. The congestion of the port is increasing, and the shortage of containers has not been alleviated.
In addition, a number of shipping companies including CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen Shipping, HMM, ONE, Yangming Shipping, and Star Shipping have announced that they will start on the trans-Pacific route from January 1, 2021. , Charge a comprehensive rate increase surcharge (GRI) ranging from US$1,000 to US$1,200/FEU.
The market predicts that the upward trend of freight rates will continue until January 2021.
In contrast to the fast-growing transportation demand, after a fully loaded ship arrived at the US West Port, it faced the dilemma of nowhere to stop.
According to a report released by the Marine Exchange of Southern California on December 28, 2020, a total of 24 container ships are anchored in San Pedro Bay, and another 5 ships are about to arrive.
According to the report, the local conventional anchorages are full of ships, and some emergency anchorages have also been occupied.
Marine Traffic uses an automatic identification system to draw a map that shows the extent of the accumulation of container ships in San Pedro Bay, which has deteriorated in recent weeks.
According to statistics, 26 additional ships called at the Port of Los Angeles in November and 31 ships in December. A port manager said that it is expected that in January 2021, more additional ships will call.
The loading and unloading capacity of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has already faced serious shortages. The Port of Los Angeles will import 116,500 TEU containers this week, and it is expected to increase significantly to 150,000 TEU per week by January 2021.
The continuous increase in freight rates and the severe congestion at the US West Port have caused shippers’ costs to hit unprecedented highs, and shippers have to reassess their transportation cost budgets for 2021.
The shipping industry in 2020 can be said to be half winter and half summer.
Affected by the epidemic, China's exports declined in the first half of the year, and the shipping industry was cold and "overwintering" ahead of schedule. In the second half of the year, the neglected shipping industry directly entered the "midsummer." As the epidemic situation in China stabilizes and the economy recovers steadily, goods from all countries are transferred from Chinese ports. For a time, China's shipping industry is showing a busy scene.
“It’s too difficult to order containers now!” A reporter from the Securities Daily could see vehicles transporting containers coming and going at the Shanghai port. A foreign trade official who did not want to be named told the reporter: “At present, I want to order a container. The price can be said to be one price per day. Not only that, even if the container is booked, I still have to worry about the availability of the cabin."
"Shanghai SIPG, Ningbo, and Shenzhen are all major ports in the world. In 2018 and 2019, the container throughput of Shanghai Port was ranked first. Recently, the container shipping market is very hot, and many boxes cannot be returned after they go out." People from listed companies commented on the reporter of "Securities Daily".
In this regard, Liu Wang, chairman of Shanghai Tianhui International Logistics Co., Ltd., told reporters: “The price of container transportation has been rising. Because shipping companies have fewer ships, they often suspend voyages, and the lack of boxes is common, even if the price increases. It cannot fundamentally solve the problem of missing boxes."
• One price a day, "boxes" are crazy
"The most exaggerated time in the past 10 years." Speaking of the current shipping industry, Ms. Xie, who is engaged in the foreign trade industry, told a reporter from the Securities Daily. Ms. Xie is mainly responsible for the freight of Guangzhou Nansha Port and Shenzhen Port. She told reporters that taking a 40-foot container as an example, the highest sea freight to the Middle East at this time last year was about US$3,000. It costs almost US$5,000 now. Last year, it was US$2,800 to US$3,200 to Europe, and now it is US$6,000 to US$7,000. This year, the freight is almost twice the same period last year.
By the end of the year, the lack of positions became a true portrayal of the operation industry.
“Nowadays, there is a shortage of containers and high freight rates. The supply exceeds demand. During the epidemic, there was a large backlog of foreign containers that could not be arranged for delivery, and no one carried the goods. Almost all customers were looting containers. Under current market conditions, there are few freight forwarders. When looking for new customers, they are basically priority old customers.” Ms. Xie told reporters that the new year is approaching, and major suppliers are fully shipping. It is expected that the shortage of containers will continue.
"First of all you have to have a position, then you have to line up the truck to get the container, and finally you have to wait for the port to open before you can enter the port. Every day, you have to go through five hurdles, and you have to face customer soul torture. It's late, can't you figure it out?" A shipping forwarder complained about the tightness of the current export containers.
Liu Wang revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Many forwarders who have no boxes sometimes look for scalpers. Now forwarders are looting positions. The positions have to be booked in advance. Many people robbed and reselled them. In the past, they did not lose their shipping fees. Now that the shipping companies are recovering their losses, the shipping companies are about to usher in a wave of market conditions this year. After the merger and reorganization last year, it is estimated that all the money lost in the past will be made back this year."
Liu Wang said: “In the past Christmas and the Spring Festival, there will be a wave of liquidation market, this year is particularly fierce because of the epidemic. South American container boxes were the lowest in history at 50 US dollars a small container, and now basically it costs more than 5,000 US dollars, and a large box 10,000. U.S. dollars, if $5,000 this week is too expensive for you, you may not be able to order $6,000 next week, basically one price a week."
In fact, the current container price has been upgraded to a daily basis. A person in charge of an international logistics company said: “In Qingdao Port, the price of a second-hand 40-foot container in previous years was about US$2,000. On November 27 this year, the price rose to US$2,850; by November 30, the price of a second-hand container rose to US$3,200. ; On December 3, it rose to 3,400 US dollars again, almost one day."
According to data from the freight benchmark company Xeneta, the current average price of short-term market contracts in Asia and Europe for three months or less is 200% higher than a year ago, at $4,831 per 40 feet. But from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by an astonishing 390.5%.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings told reporters: “As the volume of goods continues to rise, the demand for export containers has greatly increased, and the domestic guarantee for container use has become tighter. However, the turnover of overseas empty containers has generally slowed due to the continuous impact of the epidemic situation in various places. Transfer back to China to meet demand."
"The whole industry is looking for boxes everywhere, and some merchants are beginning to hoard boxes to speculate on prices." In the eyes of industry insiders, the current situation of foreign trade companies being difficult to find a box is not only because of the slow operation of containers, but also because of the reduction of some routes. .
"There are few ship lines, and most of the cabinets shipped abroad can't return. This is the root cause of the skyrocketing price of the domestic container transportation market." Liu Wang explained to the reporter: "It's not that foreign cabinets are not coming back. It is the epidemic situation abroad. The impact is that the workers do not go to work and the speed of transportation is relatively slow. Now everyone is sharing the warehouse."
According to Liu Wang, the container ships now and the alliance has been formed since last year. Originally, it used its own ships to transport the goods. Now four or five shipowners or five or six companies form an alliance, and use the same ship. warehouse. "It turns out that there may be several shipping companies arranging several shifts to go to sea in a week. Once we formed an alliance, the shifts decreased in a week. This started last year. Now shipping companies often stop once a week, which objectively leads to a shortage of ships. ."
A person in charge of the Shanghai Maritime Logistics Company introduced to a reporter from the Securities Daily: "At present, the proportion of import and export trade by sea is imbalanced. There are few boxes coming in and many boxes going out . In addition, China has quickly prevented and controlled the epidemic, and overseas orders have continued to surge. , Increasing the pressure on shipping. Overseas, affected by the epidemic, the operation cycle of containers shipped out due to business environment problems has been lengthened, the arrival process has increased, and the operation efficiency has slowed and lengthened the circulation cycle. Due to the early outbreak of the epidemic, major shipping The company has reduced many routes, resulting in uneven distribution of global container volumes."
The industry believes that with the increase in market demand, the current effective capacity is obviously insufficient.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO Shipping Holdings revealed to the reporter: "As the global epidemic prevention and control has become normalized, global trade has been rapidly repaired since the third quarter of this year, and the demand in the container shipping market has recovered beyond expectations. In order to meet the growth of transportation demand, market capacity has gradually returned to normal. , The idle capacity has dropped rapidly from the record high of more than 2.7 million TEU (international standard unit units) in May this year. At present , there is no airworthy effective capacity to rent in the market. "
In the context of uneven global container deployment, container prices on different routes have also risen at different rates.
"Since November, the price of the U.S. line has increased by about four times compared with the beginning of the year, and the European line has risen to the highest price last year. From the perspective of the distribution of China’s export routes, the U.S. container accounts for 25%, Europe accounts for 25%, and Southeast Asia , Northeast Asia adds up to 50%, the US route is now hard to find a box is the norm, followed by the European route, freight is also very tight. The price of Malaysia route in Southeast Asia has also doubled recently." The person in charge of the aforementioned logistics company added.
Facing the increase in demand for containers, the above-mentioned relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings stated: “The company will strengthen scientific forecasts for container use, actively coordinate dual-brand superior resources, and make every effort to guarantee the use of containers during peak seasons. On the one hand, internally tap the potential and accelerate overseas heavy container Demolition speed, increase empty container callback domestic and Far East efforts to promote container turnover; on the other hand, close communication with container manufacturers and container leasing companies to seek more container sources. Through two-pronged and multiple measures, to guarantee domestic container use Provide effective assistance and try our best to meet the shipping needs of customers."
In order to meet the development needs of the container market, SIPG has launched a number of effective measures to promote container volume growth in response to the market. At the beginning of this year, the Group launched seven special measures for container growth, through the implementation of preferential international transit loading and unloading fees, extension of the international transit container storage exemption period, and sea-rail intermodal customs clearance container preferential projects. In the first half of the year, the Group established three major container areas: Yangshan, Outer Harbor, and Domestic Trade, striving to achieve overall planning and agglomeration effects.
According to SIPG’s official announcement, in October, each terminal of Shanghai Port set a new record. The monthly throughput of Shengdong Company exceeded 820,000 TEUs for the first time. Among them, 33068 TEUs and 12899.75 TEUs were updated on October 25. Class record; Guandong Company broke through 720,000 TEU, setting a new record again.
• How long can the "shortage of containers" last? What is the future prospect of the shipping industry?
"The first half of the year was affected by the new crown epidemic. Ports and shipping fields did suffer a relatively large negative impact, so the first half of the year was basically a negative growth state. In the second half of the year, especially after the third quarter, normal operations resumed to a certain extent, plus China The epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, and most of the economic activities have been resumed first. Therefore, compared with the first half of the year, there is indeed a big sign of a bottoming out." said Liu Dian, a research assistant at the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China.
In the first two months of this year, my country's foreign trade imports and exports dropped significantly. According to China Customs data, from January to February 2020, my country's total import and export value of goods trade was 4.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%; imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%.
Although the current domestic epidemic situation is under control, the global epidemic is breaking out, and exports are still under certain impact.
It can be said that in the first half of this year, people in the shipping industry were mainly pessimistic about my country's export prospects. In the second half of the year, the industry was generally optimistic about the future development of the shipping industry.
Insiders analyzed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that this round of container freight price increases began in the middle of this year. At that time, after the domestic epidemic was brought under control, foreign countries were greatly affected by the epidemic, and many overseas orders were transferred to the domestic market. When shipping from China, the shipping price began to rise. According to Liu Wang's prediction, this round of price increases will continue until the first quarter of next year.
An unnamed person in charge of maritime logistics said: "As the epidemic stabilizes, this hot market will continue into the first half of next year, or even longer."
"This wave of increase in container shipping prices has driven the adjustment of the entire foreign trade sector, breaking the laws of the past decades in the industry. Not only ocean freight, air freight and land transportation have different levels of influence and changes. The epidemic has accelerated the entire large trade sector. The consolidation and adjustment of the shipping sector will gradually move towards intensive development. Shipping companies have become monopolistic after years of integration and mergers. The aviation sector and the land transport sector are also rapidly integrated, and a new chapter will emerge in the future foreign trade field." People say so.
According to Huang Tianhua, chairman of the China Container Industry Association and vice president of CIMC, predicted that the shortage of containers may continue for about six months . He said: "We have monitored that if there are 500,000 new containers in China normally, they are in a completely healthy state if they are ready for use in the docks or ports, but the current tighter inventory is about 300,000 new containers. I expect it to be possible. In the next three months to six months, this slightly tense balance will continue. This is probably a trend in the current industry."
Although the industry is generally optimistic about the shipping industry, Liu Dian believes that the total global trade volume in 2020 will still drop a certain percentage from the previous year, but from the perspective of the shipping industry, it will definitely be from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. There will be a better market.
Liu Dian said: “Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the uncertainties slowed down in the second half of the year, and the overall trend showed a relatively large rebound. Therefore, from a macro perspective, global international trade has rebounded to a certain extent. China is the first to resume the rebound led by the next."
" At present, the shipping industry is mainly affected by three factors :
Di Yi factor is that the global economy is expected to have a recovery, so after the third quarter, international trade has been warmer, led the field of shipping industry as a whole for the better, whether it is from container or just have some trade from the sea to pick up case .
The second factor is that with the signing of the RCEP agreement, a series of regional economic integration cooperation relations in East Asia and Southeast Asia will improve, which will benefit the import and export trade of China and related countries.
The third factor is that although the epidemic has not been eliminated on a global scale, all countries are in short supply, such as medical supplies, production supplies, and living supplies. China is now the world's largest trade surplus country. Under such circumstances, China's export trade, including part of its import trade, will also get a relatively large rebound in demand, and at the same time promote the rise of a series of shipping-related industry indexes in related fields, including the container shipping index. "Liu Dian said.
If shippers and logistics companies hope that the ultra-high shipping container prices will fall in the New Year, then they may be disappointed.
Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, revealed at a press conference that global logistics giants and container liner companies expect that the chaotic market, lack of berths, and container shortages, etc., will still be available by 2021. Will last for a while.
In addition, Tim Scharwath, CEO of freight forwarding giant DHL Global Freight Forwarding, also attended the meeting. What the two CEOs have in common is that they agree that 2020 is characterized by great unpredictability, such as promising customers whether their goods will reach their destinations on time, which is very unpredictable.
As time goes by and the year is coming to an end, shippers have to pay more and more freight to ship the goods. This development is largely due to the sharp increase in demand month by month since July. For example, it is not uncommon to have to pay US$5,000 for shipping containers from Hong Kong to New York.
▍It will not stabilize until the second half of 2021
The two executives agreed that after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia this spring, the very special environment has caused a historic imbalance between supply and demand. They also believe that the shipping market will not stabilize for the time being.
Scharwath said: "As for shipping, I think we must enter the second half of 2021 before we see the market stabilize again. The first quarter will definitely be affected, and so will the second quarter."
"We will have to wait and see what happens, because everything is difficult to predict. As a large company, we usually make plans for 3 to 5 years. Now, we are making plans for 3 months."
Inadequate ship capacity and insufficient containers have serious consequences for the industry’s supply chain. In addition to customer dishonesty and record high freight rates, a recent survey conducted by Sea-Intelligence shows that only half of the ships can reach their destinations on time .
▍Shipping companies strengthen management and control
Mainly affected by the new crown epidemic, container shipping companies’ performance in the second quarter was weak, but their profits have soared to record levels since the summer. However, the quality of service is lacking, and container shipping companies have been stating for months that these conditions are beyond the scope that they can change.
On the one hand, they do not have more ships to deploy, on the other hand, they cannot redistribute the containers to the required ports. In addition to other reasons, customers do not return the goods.
Currently, Asia in particular is suffering from a shortage of containers because many containers are in the United States. According to a Bloomberg report, it may also be because of port congestion that these containers cannot be unloaded at US ports. This is the case with 20 container ships currently near the Port of Long Beach.
Therefore, at the beginning of December, CMA CGM, Maersk and ONE had to refuse to leave the booking outside of Asia, the reason is very simple, because there is no extra space on board.
Hapag-Lloyd, led by Habben Jansen, also benefited from the increase in freight rates in recent months. Therefore, the shipping company has twice raised its full-year 2020 profit forecast, and the company currently expects its operating results to exceed US$2.7 billion.
However, the CEO said that it is usually because of an oversupply of ships, and 10 years after the industry has lost billions of dollars, it is time for container shipping companies to start making money.
▍Strong performance in the second quarter of next year
Until recently, shipping companies and container manufacturers also predicted that the current shortage of containers will be resolved after the Chinese New Year in February, which will restore the market to a more normal state. But Habben Jansen no longer believes this prediction is correct.
"This year’s development is beyond everyone’s expectations. Because of the introduction of economic stimulus measures, people still have money on hand, and most of the money has been spent on container cargo. Many signs indicate that the strong market we see after the Spring Festival has passed. It will appear and will continue into the second quarter."
Habben Jansen pointed out that the current market congestion will take some time to resolve.
Price is only an indicator in the process of purchasing a product or service . If you simply compare prices, it is not so thoughtful. Price, quality, service, word of mouth, suitability for your own situation, etc. all need to be considered together.
General cargo aircraft air valence is usually divided into M, N, Q stage, wherein the stage is divided into Q + 45, + 100, + 300, + 500, + 1000, such as different levels - greater the weight, the rate cheaper . M stands for MinimumCharge. The lowest freight is also called the minimum freight. It is the lowest freight that airlines can accept for handling a batch of goods. N means NormalRate, which generally refers to a price less than 45KGS. To apply this freight rate, two conditions must be met at the same time: 1) It must be under 45 kg; 2) It must be ordinary goods-if the specified commodity freight rate is applicable, or the applicable grade The freight rate is not applicable to this freight rate, so N will also be marked as -45KGS. Q means QuantityRate. Q freight rate is the most common in actual shipments. Generally, air freight is mostly higher than 45 kg. If it is lower than 45 kg, general express is fine. Customs clearance is quick to return to the door and the speed is also Not bad.
Freight ForwardingHow does the company count as international Air freight? What constitutes air freight
Air freight rate composition:
1. Airfreight freight (charged by airlines)
2. Fuel surcharge (according to the airport, the price of the destination point is different, Hong Kong now generally the first 4 yuan, before 3.6, last year the highest 4.8, the price is adjusted by the airport, generally 2 yuan to Asia)
4. Airport operation fee (HKD283/ticket for Hong Kong, the airport is responsible for transporting goods on the plane, etc.)
5. Terminal fee: 1.72/kg When the goods are handed over to the dealer, the dealer is responsible for the boarding and other things, which will eventually be collected by the airport)
6. Air master bill fee: HKD15/bl is the bill of lading fee-proof of title.
The above is the " How does a freight forwarding company calculate international air freight? " compiled by the editor of Taijie International Logistics . What is the air freight rate? The detailed content, I hope it can be helpful to everyone. Now it is during the peak season of National Day. If you want to ship by air, you need to make an appointment in advance, and your goods can be shipped by air if they are more than 45 kg. Delivery from different places will also affect the calculation of air freight costs, but generally there will not be too much difference. You can consult several freight forwarding companies in Shenzhen to find out.
When the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, telecommuting and home isolation have become the norm. The suspension of offline transactions in the past has accelerated the shift of international trade to online. In this context, China's foreign trade exports have accelerated recovery, especially the rapid increase in cross-border e-commerce orders.
Recently, the "home economy" related products represented by furniture, home appliances, toys, and daily necessities have continued to explode. China’s small commodity export orders have surged, and many manufacturers’ orders have already been scheduled to 2021.
Correspondingly, due to the imbalance of China's import and export trade, container shipping export freight rates remain high, and containers are "difficult to find". These problems have become more prominent under the stimulation of huge transportation demand.
The explosive growth of export orders and thorny transportation problems have put Chinese exporters facing tremendous pressure and challenges.
Export orders soared, shipping costs soared
"This time of the year is the peak season. In previous years, the factory was very busy and the number of offline purchases was countless. This year, affected by the epidemic, almost all of them have adopted online ordering." Wan Rufang, general manager of Zhejiang Fengfan Stainless Steel Products Co., Ltd., told China A reporter from Aviation Weekly said.
Ju Jianshuang, general manager of Shanghai Jiesheng Furniture Co., Ltd. also introduced: "Compared with last year, this year our company's export orders have increased by about 10%."
But the headache for these exporters is that although the volume of export orders has exploded, their profits have not risen but fallen. The main reason is that the increase in shipping costs is even more alarming.
At the beginning of this year, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic caused most Chinese companies to stop work and production, leading to the cancellation of many orders and a decline in freight volume. Shipping companies have also adopted measures such as reducing capacity and reducing voyage density in response to market changes. However, shortly afterwards, the epidemic in China was effectively controlled, and companies gradually resumed work and production, exports basically recovered, and freight volumes rebounded rapidly.
However, judging from the market reaction, the shipping company's capacity increase did not match the cargo volume, which caused the freight rate to rise all the way. The direct reason for the recent sharp increase in freight rates is that the overseas epidemic has affected the efficiency of port loading and unloading. At the same time, the logistics turnover is not smooth, the shortage of containers is very prominent, and the supply and demand are seriously mismatched. For this reason, shipping companies have begun to levy congestion surcharges, peak season surcharges, and lack of containers surcharges.
Latest SCFI data
According to the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 18, the market price of Shanghai’s exports to European basic ports (including maritime surcharges) was US$3,124/TEU, an increase of 6.0% from a week ago. Compared with the US$1,508/TEU a month ago, it has doubled.
The price of US$3,124/TEU on the Asia-Europe route is the highest ever since SCFI was released in 2009.
During the same period, the market prices (including shipping surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to basic ports in the West and East of the United States were 3,900 US dollars/FEU and 4874 US dollars/FEU, which were also at historical highs.
Cai Jiaxiang, vice chairman of the China Association of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Enterprises, said bluntly: "Sometimes, the sum of various surcharges even exceeds the freight."
Exporters' profit shrinking affects foreign trade stability in the long term
It is understood that about 80% to 90% of foreign trade export enterprises in China sign the FOB clause in the export contract, that is, the buyer pays for the freight.
Cai Jiaxiang analyzed: "In a short period of time, because Chinese exporters who sign FOB clauses will pay the freight by the buyer, it will not be greatly affected in the early stage of the price increase. But from a long-term perspective, if the freight continues to rise, the export The business is bound to be affected to a certain extent."
He took the US importer as an example. If the buyer needs to pay up to 5,000 US dollars in freight per box for a long time, the buyer's import cost will be greatly increased, and the Chinese exporters may be required to share the high freight.
Even if the Chinese exporters who sign the FOB clause do not need to bear the ocean freight, they still have to pay for the transportation costs of the goods from the factory to the dock. At present, affected by the lack of containers, exporters can only obtain empty containers by waiting for empty containers or raising the price. In order to ensure shipments, most exporters will choose to increase the price to pick up the box, which also increases the export cost of Chinese exporters.
More importantly, the continued high freight rates will also affect the purchasing power of overseas consumers. Due to the increase in costs and the substitutability of some commodities, importers may consider whether to use substitutes when choosing commodities.
Wan Rufang said: “Our company’s order volume from August to October was relatively large. Compared with March to June, it has doubled. But starting from November, some countries have adopted closed measures and freight Excessively high, to a large extent affect the customer's purchase volume."
On the other hand, the Chinese exporters who signed the CIF clauses, as they directly bear the export freight, have a deeper understanding of the pain points of high freight, and it has effectively affected their own profits.
Ju Jianshuang's company faced this situation. He reluctantly said: "Our company is mainly based on signing CIF contract terms. In most cases, the ocean freight of exported goods is borne by us. The recent rapid increase in freight has caused the company's costs to rise sharply, and the monthly profit is about reduced. 600,000 yuan."
Ju Jianshuang said that the high freight rates are too burdensome for companies that "small profits but quicker sales" and mainly out-of-stock volume. "We will consider negotiating with customers to postpone shipments or raise prices appropriately. But the main solution is to give up some profits by the company itself to maintain normal operations."
He believes that a balance should be maintained between production companies and transportation companies to ensure the living space of both parties.
However, even in the current era of "hard to find a box" and frequent freight charges, seaborne export is still the first choice for Chinese exporters.
There are two main reasons for this. One is the export destinations of some exporters, such as the United States, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore and other countries. These destinations cannot deliver goods by means of transportation other than sea or air, and air transportation has certain transportation restrictions and the freight rate is too high. , Most exporters will not consider; second, although shipping costs have risen sharply, they are still lower than road, rail, air and other transportation methods. At the same time, shipping has greater advantages in capacity and can better meet the needs of Chinese exporters.
Cai Jiaxiang further explained: "In the early days, shipping goods to Europe via the China-Europe Express train cost about US$10,000 per TEU. At present, although the freight rate of the China-Europe Express train has been lowered to US$7,000-8,000 per TEU, the price is still higher than that of ocean freight. From the perspective of many Chinese exporters, price is more important than speed."
Chinese and U.S. regulators frequently call for exporters to restore capacity
In response to the current difficulties faced by Chinese exporters, the Ministry of Commerce of China has paid close attention and responded publicly.
Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a recent press conference that many countries around the world are facing similar problems in foreign trade logistics due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The mismatch between supply and demand of capacity is the direct cause of the increase in freight rates. Factors such as poor container turnover have indirectly pushed up shipping costs and reduced logistics efficiency.
Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce
He further emphasized: "The Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to increase capacity allocation, support accelerated container return transportation, improve operational efficiency, and support container manufacturing enterprises to expand production capacity. At the same time, it will increase market supervision and strive to stabilize market prices. Provide strong logistics support for the stable development of foreign trade."
Prior to this, the regulatory authorities of China, the United States and other countries have also stated that they will pay close attention to issues such as rising freight rates in the shipping market.
In September of this year, the Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China interviewed all shipping companies operating China-US liner routes, emphasizing that it will strengthen the supervision of China-US routes, requiring that the capacity, routes and schedules must be filed, and freight and all surcharges must be regulated. reasonable.
Also in September, the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) also issued a warning to shipping companies that it would crack down on potential violations of competition laws. Soon after, FMC also announced the toughest measures to increase the supervision of the three major shipping alliances in response to issues such as freight and demurrage. It is required that shipping alliances must submit specific trade data to FMC every month, whereas previously it was only required to submit every quarter.
In this regard, Cai Jiaxiang said that the European and American regulatory policies are relatively timely. The EU has the most stringent anti-monopoly issues, and the United States is not inferior. These areas have achieved certain results in freight control, and prices are relatively stable.
Regarding the domestic export trade market, Cai Jiaxiang believes that “restoring the original normal capacity and flight density is the top priority to solve the problem.”
He further stated that the voice of the Ministry of Commerce can improve the current market conditions to a certain extent, but it still needs to increase efforts. "Call on the Ministry of Transport to interview shipping companies to restore normal capacity and flight density, and the State Administration for Market Supervision and Administration will use anti-monopoly laws reasonably and adopt legal weapons to cut the root cause of shipping problems." Cai Jiaxiang said.
Due to the unbalanced import and export situation, the shortage of containers in India is causing the cost of shipping companies and importers and exporters to rise sharply.
"The cargo volume of all routes has jumped in the range of 20% to 100%."
Mark S. Fernandes, director of the IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told the Business Standard: “Because customers are not ready to absorb price increases, exporters sometimes face losses.”
"Our situation is very helpless. The customer is not ready to pick up the goods, and the shipping company has increased the freight. So we have to bear the cost because the materials have been produced and need to be delivered."
An Indian exporter, who asked not to be named, said: “The market is completely crazy, and shipping companies have formed a business alliance to make up for the losses it suffered during the global blockade earlier this year.”
Although the freight rate of the container part has risen, if booking in advance, the availability of the container will be eased to a certain extent.
Now, exporters are planning to cooperate with shipping companies 1-2 months in advance to ensure that the goods are shipped on time. If the plan is better, there will be no major delays in obtaining containers.
Balmer Lawrie, Hyundai and Nathani are some of the container manufacturers in India. They started to produce these equipment in China at a very competitive price of US$1,000 per container, while the price of containers manufactured in India was US$1,800 to US$2,000.
Shipping companies can order more containers, but once the trade situation returns to normal, those newly ordered containers will become inventory.
Therefore, shipping companies are not keen to invest in new containers.
"It is not easy for shipping companies to survive. Operating costs have risen and trade has been hit as a whole. As a result, there are fewer flights and even have to empty ships, and fuel costs have risen sharply.
Due to the epidemic, if certain preventive measures are not taken, the crew cannot breathe a sigh of relief. The measures taken will take time and additional costs. The entire industry chain has cost burdens, not just exporters. "
At the same time, ports such as JNPT and Chennai are striving to maintain operational efficiency in order to control the cost of shipping and importers and exporters from the port side.
"The port's cargo growth, we are in a recovery mode. We will ensure that there will be no congestion in the port, so that no stakeholders will incur additional cost burdens," said a senior transportation official of JNPT.
Small containers are becoming a key factor affecting the global trade industry chain.
At the moment, in the field of foreign trade, it has become a consensus that “the one who gets the container gets the world”, and the lack of containers has become a hurdle in the international logistics chain. It can be said that I am in a hurry here, and you are looking forward to it.
Since July this year, China’s export volume has risen sharply, and both the shipping market and the China-Europe freight train market have seen shortages of containers, soaring freight rates, and delayed turnover.
Statistics from the China Container Association show that China’s export containers are mainly satisfied in two ways: unloading old containers after unloading at ports, and new containers made by Chinese container manufacturers.
At present, my country can only return one for every 3.5 containers exported. A large number of empty containers are backlogged in the United States, Europe and Australia, and there is a shortage of containers in Asia.
Containers that are usually returned within 60 days are now delayed to 100 days, and the cost of renting containers has also increased by about 150%.
Zhang Jun, deputy general manager of Qingdao Port QQCT, said:
Under normal circumstances, if 1,000 containers are needed in the current period, there will usually be 1,200 to 1,300 containers waiting at the port. However, when containers are now in short supply, there may be only 800 to 900 containers at the terminal.
Nowadays, in addition to the hard to find a box, there is also a "hard to get a cabin."
The lack of shipping company capacity is the beginning of the nightmare of freight forwarders.
After the suspension, in addition to high freight rates, freight forwarders are faced with the realistic challenge of "bursting cabins".
The relationship with the shipping company is the "most familiar stranger", and the freight forwarder who can't pay the high price can't book the space at all, and the long-term customer's cargo cannot enter the port and board the ship on time.
After the "explosive cabin", due to insufficient space, the shipping company will detain many of the space booked by the freight forwarder on the next flight in order to maximize the benefits. You know, "drop the container".
For large freight forwarders, the losses caused by dumping containers may still be within the tolerable range.
For those small and medium freight forwarders who rely on a few large customers themselves, the disadvantage of insufficient competitiveness in this case may directly lead to their fall.
As the "middleman" between the customer and the shipping company, the explosion of warehouses at the end of the year made the freight forwarding "messy in the cold wind" gradually.
The freight forwarding industry is already facing a situation where the strong will remain strong and the weak will remain weak.
However, freight forwarders serving some special categories will be in a better position because they have their own unique competitive advantages.
On the 17th, Hapag-Lloyd's official website issued an announcement that due to continuous unforeseen operational challenges, it is still facing extremely tight equipment.
Hapag-Lloyd supports all confirmed bookings, but it does not rule out the possibility of cancellation.
At the moment it can be said that: I grabbed the space and lacked the box; I grabbed the box and lacked the space; I grabbed the box and the space , but the freight rate has risen again.······
The latest report released by the shipping consulting agency Sea Intelligence shows that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue this year, at least until January next year.
The biggest problem facing the container shipping industry is that some key regions, especially Asia, are facing a serious shortage of empty containers.
The short interest of empty containers is also the main reason that pushes the spot container freight market to historical highs, and it is also the main reason why shippers who want to be able to ship their products in time are very annoyed.
Some reports pointed out that due to the shortage of empty containers, the current impact on domestic exports has emerged.
Investment securities noted in exports , China's exports of most goods were transported by sea containers . The greater the export freight volume, the greater the demand for containers and the higher the freight rate. The freight rate index is consistent with the export year-on-year trend.
This year, SCFI began to increase prices at the end of May, matching the time when the European and American economies were unblocked. That is, the demand for Chinese goods increased after overseas unblocking, corresponding to the positive export growth rate from June; and the SCFI price increase has accelerated significantly. At the beginning of November, the export growth rate in November increased by 9.7 percentage points to 21.1%. From this perspective, based on SCFI's repeated record highs since December, exports remain strong in the short term.
On the supply side , under the high trade surplus, empty containers have been left without return, which has exacerbated the shortage of containers.
The China Container Industry Association stated that the average turnaround time of containers in China has jumped from 60 days to 100 days due to the reduction of capacity in the United States and Europe due to the virus, which has exacerbated the shortage of containers in China .
Some US importers have stated that they cannot receive the goods on time during the November-December shopping season. This will result in companies unable to deliver enough goods to meet consumer demand during local holidays.
Faced with this important problem of serious shortage of containers, I believe that the highest priority for everyone in the industry (consolidation industry, foreign trade industry) must be: when can the problem of container equipment shortage be solved?
In the latest market report, the shipping consulting agency Sea Intelligence modeled the overall state of the market based on advanced regional data. Through the estimation of the global container pool and global shipments, the base time required for a container to be loaded in Asia, complete its voyage, and to be loaded again in Asia is determined. Then, use Container Trade Statistics (CTS) demand data and Asia's potential empty container buffer inventory to supplement the explanation, and finally achieve the purpose of calculating the availability of empty containers in Asia.
By simulating 4 different strategies for the carrier (shipping company, etc.) to potentially solve the shortage of empty containers:
(1) Do not take any measures against the shortage of empty containers;
(2) Actively relocate empty containers on routes exported to Asia;
(3) Inject new containers to reduce the current burden;
(4) Operators actively take measures to reposition the containers and inject new containers.
The figure above outlines these strategies and their resulting impact on the availability of empty containers in Asia.
Given the above data model, SeaIntelligence pointed out that the only possible solution to this problem in January is when the shipping company has to purchase new containers and actively reschedule the return of empty containers . In fact, major shipping companies are also actively pursuing and attempting to implement strategies.
However, Sea Intelligence stated that this strategy will also cause serious problems for return shippers.
The market is therefore faced with a severe choice-either the carrier pursues the current strategy to achieve the goal of solving the container shortage in January next year, or the shipping company reduces their aggressive container repositioning strategy for the benefit of return shippers. But the result will be that the shortage of empty space will last at least until February next year, or even longer.
Shipping companies suspend bookings for Asia-Europe heading
With the lack of empty containers, shipping companies also feel that they have more than enough energy. Some shipping companies have to reduce or suspend bookings for a period of time in the future.
Not long ago, CMA CGM, the world’s fourth-largest container shipping company, announced that it would stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe in the next three weeks. Specifically, the company temporarily suspended the 49th, 50th and 51st week of this year’s Asia-Northern Europe route. Booking.
Then, according to the Danish shipping media shippingwatch, Maersk and ONE also said recently that they had to refuse some inquiries.
The world’s largest shipping company Maersk stated in a written reply to the media, “The current situation in Asia is very tense. Due to the large backlog of containers, we have reduced the short-term cargo orders in the last few weeks of December to a minimum, and Several voyages had to be stopped (reservations accepted)."
Singapore-based ONE Shipping said that the current industry is developing very fast, and the company is no longer able to accept goods transferred from other container companies.
In reply to the shipping company, the company wrote: "It is impossible to accept new transfers from other shipping companies, but we can basically meet the needs of existing customers without any substantial cancellation of bookings."
In 2020, global shipping logistics started as a nightmare due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, but at the end of the year it ushered in unprecedented popularity. The price of container transportation has been rising for several consecutive months, and the current freight rate can be described as "rising every day"...
The spot freight rate from Asia to Northern Europe is at a record high, and the annual contract price is expected to rise sharply. The impact of the new epidemic lockdown measures on sales, shippers have increased concerns about soaring freight and surcharges, which may lead to next year The wave of order cancellations.
Asia-Europe part of the freight rate exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and shippers face challenges in the Asia-Europe contract season
The freight forwarder stated that since Asia-Europe freight rates have increased by at least 5 times year-on-year, and the total freight rates of some goods have exceeded US$10,000/FEU, shippers are delaying or canceling shipments before the freight rates are adjusted.
The Shanghai Container Freight Index shows that in the week ending December 11, spot freight rates in Asia and Europe increased 24% from the previous week to US$2,948 per TEU. However, freight forwarders stated that the index reflects market conditions incompletely, and shippers’ quotations exceeded $10000/FEU.
A source said: "We are beginning to see customers canceling reservations because the prices are too high."
Shipping from China to the UK in January, the shipping company is now quoting 10,000 US dollars / 40'HC at sight, the source said: "I heard that the price is 13,500 US dollars."
In addition to the additional costs of shipping companies, including the increase in scheduled cancellation fees, freight forwarders worry that customers will refuse or fail to pay all the additional costs caused by the interruption of the supply chain.
European shippers are preparing for the upcoming contract season and have issued warnings to shipping companies that they will take further action if they try to maintain this year’s sharply increased rates.
The freight from Asia to Europe is as high as US$10,000/FEU, including various surcharges currently applicable to the industry. The Global Shippers Forum (GSF) said that due to “overpriced”, many shippers are currently not delivering goods at all. Small and medium-sized companies cannot pay additional fees.
GSF Secretary General James Hookham said: “The shipper cannot afford the various increased rates and therefore loses business.”
Freight rates in Europe and East Asia continue to rise
▍Maersk announced new fees in Europe and East Asia from December to next year
Maersk announced a new peak season surcharge (PSS), which applies to refrigerated goods from the Far East to Northern and Southern European countries. The surcharge will be $1,000 / 20' reefer container, $1,500 / 40' reefer container, effective from December 15th, and Taiwan will be effective from January 1, 2021.
In addition, since December 1, MSC has implemented PSS of US$500/20' and US$750/40' for all dry goods from the UK, Ireland, Northern Spain, Portugal and the Baltic Sea to the Far East.
In addition, MSC has adjusted the following rates starting from December 1, 2020 until further notice, but not exceeding December 31, 2020.
▍Hapag-Lloyd announced to increase the surcharge from Asia to many places in Europe
A few days ago, Hapag-Lloyd announced new prices from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean, which will take effect on January 1, 2021.
Hapag-Lloyd also issued a new general tax rate increase (GRI) for all dry containers, reefer containers, non-operational reefer containers, storage tanks, flat racks and open-top containers from South Asia and Northeast Asia to Australia , since January 1. Effective.
Southeast Asia to Australia
US $ 150/20'
US $ 300/40'
Northeast Asia to Australia
US $ 300/20'
US $ 600/40'
From December 7th, Hapag-Lloyd will implement another GRI for all goods and all types of containers from East Asia to the East Coast of South America at USD 550 per container.
At the same time, Hapag-Lloyd announced that it will postpone the GRI implemented in eastbound trade from East Asia to all destinations in the United States and Canada on December 1, and the new effective date is January 1, 2021.
This general rate increase is applicable to all dry goods, refrigerated cabinets, non-operational refrigerated cabinets, storage tanks, pallets and open top containers. Details are as follows:
East Asia to North America (United States and Canada)
US$960/20'
US$1200/40'
East Asia includes countries/regions in Japan, South Korea, China, China/Taiwan, China/Hong Kong, China/Macau, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, Philippines, and Russia’s Pacific Rim provinces.
In response to the current serious shortage of containers in the Asian market, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Habben Jansen recently stated that “the congestion of the port and the strong demand in the market have caused the increase in traffic to exacerbate this problem. This kind of tension will continue for another 6-8 weeks. It will be alleviated.” The pressure on the supply chain caused by the shortage of containers in Asia will continue for at least another 6-8 weeks, which means that shortages will still be faced in the next two months, which will also affect shipments before the Spring Festival.
Container freight rates continue to soar, reaching high levels far above the long-term sustainable level. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) set a record of 2131.71 points, an increase of 162% over the same period last year. After experiencing a sharp increase in freight rates that initially lags behind the Pan-Pacific region, spot freight rates in northern Europe have soared up 230% compared to the same period last year. Moreover, the freight quotation in Asia and Northern Europe has reached US$10,000 per 40-foot high cabinet.
According to the shipping index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange in the latest issue, the overall export container shipping market in China remains high. The freight rates of most ocean routes operated steadily, and some increased significantly, and the composite index rose. On December 11, Shanghai's comprehensive export container freight index was 2311.71 points, an increase of 8.6% over the previous period.
Asia to Europe (Far East Europe Mediterranean route) : Near the end of the year, the volume of the European market remains high. The recurrence of the epidemic has also stimulated the growth of local import demand and strong transportation demand. The lack of containers in the market also affects European routes. Strong market demand and severe equipment shortages are expected to continue after the Spring Festival in 2021.
Last week, the average occupancy utilization rate of ships in Shanghai Port remained at the full level. Affected by this, most airlines increased their freight rates sharply in the middle of the month, and the spot market booking prices rose sharply. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the European basic port market was US$2,948/TEU, an increase of 24.2% from the previous period. In the Mediterranean route , the market situation is basically the same as that in Europe, and the spot market freight rate has risen sharply. On December 11, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the Mediterranean basic port market was 3073 US dollars/TEU, breaking the 3000 US dollars mark, an increase of 28.9% from the previous period.
However, there is news that the actual freight paid by the shipper is much higher in order to ensure the container and the final remaining European space . Lars Jensen of SeaIntelligence said that there is anecdotal evidence that the exact freight paid by shippers on the Asia-Northern Europe trade route may be as high as US$5,000 per TEU. Jensen explained: “In this case, it’s important to note that in some cases, SCFI underestimates the actual freight paid because there are additional costs related to equipment and space availability.”
A British freight forwarding company confirmed to The Loadstar that the freight quotation in Asia and Northern Europe has reached US$10,000 per 40-foot high container . "It's crazy," he said.
At the same time, all carriers will raise GRI again on December 15 . The current extreme shortage of 40-foot high cabinets suggests that alternative alternatives will continue to increase in freight rates this week; it is worth noting that due to port congestion and limited land capacity, cargo to the UK is subject to many restrictions, and delays and operational problems are expected. Some carriers stopped accepting bookings sent to the UK.
Due to the strong demand for containers and the backlog in recent weeks. CMA CMA CGM notified that it will temporarily stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe, that is, temporarily suspend bookings for the 49th, 50th and 51st week Asia-Northern Europe routes. Another shipping company recently told Asia-Northern Europe customers that if the shipment is cancelled within two weeks after the shipment date, it hopes to charge a fee of US$1,000 per TEU.
Asia to North America (trans-Pacific eastbound route): The US epidemic is showing a trend of major outbreaks, with new cases hitting new highs in a single day. Severe epidemics have caused frequent port congestion and blocked transit. The problem of equipment imbalance in Asia continues, and supply and demand are severely unbalanced. Ningbo Port, ports in Southeast Asia and Busan Port are the loading ports with the most serious equipment shortages. The carrier's cargo backlog has become more serious, and it is increasingly difficult to book containers.
Last week, the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to West and East US routes remained close to the full load level. The freight rate is high and stable, and the spot market booking price is basically the same as the previous period. SCFI data shows that the spot freight rate from Shanghai to the east coast of the United States increased by 104 U.S. dollars to 4804 U.S. dollars per FEU, an increase of 91% over the same period last year, while the freight rate to the U.S. West Coast was basically the same at 3,984 U.S. dollars/FEU. Nevertheless, it has increased by 188% compared to the same period last year.
There does not appear to be any sign of slowing down in freight volumes to the West Coast of the United States. The Port of Los Angeles expects that containers will increase by 48% and 44% in the next two weeks. The Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals are under tremendous pressure due to the sharp increase in throughput. According to forecasts, the total volume of the Port of Los Angeles in the fourth quarter will increase by 40% year-on-year, exceeding 850,000 TEUs. Ships are waiting at the anchorage in San Pedro Bay for a long time. 6 days.
Jon Monroe of Jon Monroe Consulting, Washington State, said: "Consumer recovery is gaining momentum. Black Friday sales have grown strongly, up 21% from last year. If you have not ordered the goods shipped before the Lunar New Year, you may be too late. Up."
South American routes: The raging epidemic has affected the production capacity of South American countries, their dependence on foreign materials is high, and transportation demand has remained high. In this period, most of the average space utilization of ships in Shanghai Port is at the full load level. Near the middle of the month, most airlines increased their booking prices, and the spot market freight rates rose. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the South American basic port market was 5876 US dollars/TEU, an increase of 12.5% from the previous period.
In other routes, SCFI's spot freight rates have risen almost across the board. For example, the freight rates from Asia to South Africa rose 15% this period to US$2,289 per TEU, an increase of 130% over the same period last year.
