Regarding the concealment of import and export goods, let’s look at a case first:
On August 4, a violent explosion occurred in the port area of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, on the evening of the 4th. Preliminary statistics showed that at least 100 people were killed and more than 4,000 were injured in the explosion. The Prime Minister of Lebanon confirmed that up to 2,750 tons of explosive chemical ammonium nitrate stored in a port warehouse had exploded.
These ammonium nitrates were piled up in Beirut's port area for six years "without the necessary safety measures"!
It is understood that ammonium nitrate may explode when it is shaken or close to the fire source. The conditions of the explosion are not difficult to achieve. Nitric acid will decompose at about 180°C.
Prior to this, ammonium nitrate has caused too many major explosion accidents. Developed countries such as the United States, Britain, and France have all experienced the horror of the ammonium nitrate explosion. Bloody events are disasters for every country encountered, even for humans.
Everyone must have learned about this explosion from the overwhelming reports. However, this major accident called Lebanon’s national disaster is only one of many port and cargo ship accidents. It is not difficult to find that there have been several foreign explosions in the past. It happened in ports or in cargo ships or trains.
This is bound to be reminiscent of the safety of imported and exported goods, and under-reporting is a thing most hated by various cross-border companies.
Customs declaration: This batch of goods are toothbrushes.
Glass: Who is your name?
Customs declaration: This box of goods is paper towels.
Bath towel: You insult people!
...
These are all concealment of ordinary goods, and may only involve smuggling and other issues, but a concealment of dangerous goods is like sending an untimely bomb to freight forwarders, shipping companies, and port workers. Once an accident occurs, the consequences are disastrous.
Consequences of concealment of general cargo:
In order to evade tax, deliberately concealing part of the taxable goods constitutes smuggling. The specific legal consequences should be determined in conjunction with the amount of tax evasion.
Consequences of under-reporting of dangerous goods:
Serious accidents caused by improper storage and stowage locations; damage to the safety of the crew and the vessel; use of water guns to extinguish water damage to other containers and cargo in the cabin; delays to the entire route; huge operating costs, investigation costs, etc. Etc.; fines required by local maritime customs; customs detaining boxes for several years; may be classified as criminal smuggling and other crimes; pollution to the environment...
Measures to prevent false reports
1. Strengthen professional and safety knowledge education
As a cross-border industry practitioner, we must strengthen the training and education of hazardous materials and safety knowledge, and improve our professional service capabilities.
2. Strengthen the credit review of shippers
Strengthen the credit review of the shipper, and find out the actual source of the goods for the goods whose factory address and name are relatively acceptable. In many foreign ports, concealment of goods is a criminal responsibility, so practitioners must take it seriously.
3. Ensure clear declaration of product name
Make sure that the shipper’s declaration of the cargo brand is clear. If the declaration of the cargo name is vague and general, you must ask clearly. Some chemicals are suspected of being dangerous goods, and the shipper must be required to provide chemical safety instructions and corresponding test reports.
4. New customer information is true
In addition, you need to pay attention to whether the information of new customers is true, especially those new customers who do not need to provide customs declaration, warehousing, and towing services.
5. The product name is inconsistent with the bill of lading
If the product name is inconsistent with the bill of lading, the freight forwarder Yaao will take the initiative to check the customs declaration product name to ensure that the three orders of this batch of goods are consistent.
The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) threatened to use all its possible powers to overturn the decision of international shipping companies to abandon the export of American agricultural products and relocate empty containers instead.
The shortage of containers and market forces have caused some shipping companies to cut the container quotas of traditional American exporters to alleviate some serious problems in the supply chain. This has had a huge impact on US agricultural exports. Reports say that some cargo owners’ quotas have been reduced from 300 containers per month to three.
Under the vigorous lobbying of the U.S. Agricultural Transportation Union and its partners, FMC announced that it would investigate these measures.
"Some shipping companies have already stated that they will no longer deploy empty containers to inland agricultural areas of the United States. Instead, they are speeding up the delivery of empty containers back to Asia." FMC Chairman Michael Khouri said at the Global Maritime Conference.
"This approach is to keep U.S. agricultural exports out of the global market. We are investigating and possible response measures, including reviewing whether the actions of these shipping companies are in full compliance with the Shipping Act, and more specifically, the Act. "Prohibited Acts" clauses in the "Prohibited Acts"," he said.
At the end of October, the shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has decided to suspend export bookings for soybeans and other agricultural products from the United States in order to return empty containers to Asia to load imported goods from the United States instead of shipping containers to the inland United States.
Earlier this month, the Special Soybean and Grain Alliance (SSGA), a US agricultural transportation organization, stated that the lack of containers and its members’ inability to load exported goods is prompting Asian customers to investigate other food buyers.
SSGA Executive Director Eric Wenberg said: "Our members have heard from Asian customers that they doubt that the United States and its agricultural exporters will continue to be reliable suppliers based on the difficulties of today's multimodal transportation."
"Marine shipping companies need to work with us to solve these transportation problems and ship our goods back to Asian ports. Otherwise, the United States has been a reputation for exporting high-quality food to foreign customers and we must take action." He added.
Magic 2020, the shipping industry has breaking news every day, and it always affects the hearts of foreign trade forwarders.
Today, the Moments of Friends screened the video of the driver grabbing the box. Truck drivers flocked to "queue" to pick up the cabinet. You earn and I grab one box, and they are almost "fighting".
This is a real response. Even if the shipping company normally releases the cabin, there is no guarantee that there will be boxes. It is difficult to find a box in China.
Another heavy news is that CMA CGM will directly stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe in the next three weeks, and temporarily stop bookings on the Asia-Northern Europe route in the 49th, 50th and 51st weeks. The European route has basically ended this year. Booking.
In recent months, due to the uneven recovery of the global economy, the rebound of epidemics in many countries, and the arrival of traditional transportation seasons such as Christmas and New Year, congestion has occurred in many European and American ports, but many domestic ports are extremely short of containers.
Under such circumstances, many large shipping companies impose additional charges such as congestion surcharges, peak season surcharges, and shortage of containers.
Following the further surge in freight rates on the European and Mediterranean routes last week, data shows that this week, China’s export container shipping market performed stably, and transportation demand remained stable. The freight rates on most shipping routes rose, which led to a rise in the composite index.
The largest increase was the year-on-year growth rate in Northern Europe of 196.8%, the year-on-year growth rate in the Mediterranean Sea was 209.2%, and the year-on-year growth rates in the West and East of the United States were 161.6% and 78.2%, respectively. 390.5%.
Shanghai Export Container Freight Index
As Christmas approaches, shippers and their freight forwarders in Europe and North America continue to generally face the problems of container shortages, port congestion, declining capacity and soaring freight rates. Many people in the industry are talking about the current "peak season" in the container industry. "When will it end?
According to the latest analysis conducted by Lar Jensen, CEO of shipping analysis agency SeaIntelligence, on behalf of the Baltic Exchange, the answer is likely to be around the Lunar New Year holiday in February, because the options available to supply chain stakeholders are very limited.
Chinese New Year will mark the end of the "peak season" of the container industry
The root cause of the current problem is the unexpected demand for container cargo due to the global social blockade.
Jensen said that there are three key issues in meeting higher levels of demand: container, ship and port capacity constraints. He wrote: "If demand decreases, the problem will be resolved immediately."
"However, shipping companies may show their determination to reduce capacity again in order to cope with the downward trend in demand. This means that very high spot freight rates will drop, and new equipment available surcharges will disappear, but the interest rate will not It's too likely to crash." He added.
In these strange years, it is difficult for the industry to reach a consensus, but there are few signs that consumer demand will decline in the short term.
Jensen said that for many shippers and freight forwarders, the most pressing problem is the serious shortage of containers, but as China's container manufacturing plants are in full production, this problem may be alleviated before the Chinese New Year on February 12.
"This problem can be solved within a few months." He said: "The solution is that the empty containers are shipped back from Europe and North America faster, coupled with the full work of China's container factories... The current situation can be After the Spring Festival, it ended peacefully."
However, it will take longer to solve the problem of global ship and port capacity. When the capacity is insufficient, the traditional approach of shipping companies is to turn to the leasing market. However, due to the surge in demand, only a few boats are available for hire.
"As a result, the time scale for increasing capacity has changed from weeks to years now, because it will require the construction of new ships. Moreover, since the peak demand may be temporary, this solution will not help solve the problem." He wrote.
Another option for shipping companies is to increase their ship speed. Faster service can free up the structural capabilities of the shipping group, although this does increase costs.
"In general, considering the optimization of fuel, when modifying or building these ships, they cannot sail as fast as ten years ago, but there is still a certain degree of additional capacity that needs to be activated. However, this also comes at a cost. , Including the sharp increase in carbon emissions."
Finally, there is the issue of port inventory, which he admits is almost powerless in the short term.
"The surge in demand and the increase in ship arrivals have not only affected the number of containers that the port can handle, but also the number of ships that can be berthed and served."
"In addition, the surge in demand has caused larger ships to arrive with more cargo than originally planned, which means longer berth stays, a chain reaction, and subsequent ships will be delayed."
"The expansion of the port's capacity can only be measured in a few years at most. In some areas, large expansion projects can take up to 10 years."
The container throughput of global ports continued to increase in October, with a total volume of 15.2 million TEUs that month. So far in 2020, the container throughput has reached 137.7 million TEUs, which is only 2.7% lower than in 2019.
The off-season is not "light"
The latest data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) shows that the traditional freight off-season in 2020 will not be "light", and the performance will exceed expectations, and the market demand will continue until the fourth quarter . In October, the trans-Pacific shipping volume dropped by 4% from September to 2 million TEUs, but it was still a quarter higher than the same period in 2019. The demand is so great that although operators have been increasing capacity, there is still a gap.
Demand on the Asia-Europe route has also recovered, although its performance is not as strong as the Pacific route. In October, the shipping volume of the Asia-Europe route was 1.4 million TEUs, an increase of 7% over 2019. However, from the perspective of the whole year, the 13.9 million TEUs so far in 2020 is still 7% lower than 2019.
Equipment gap is nearly 1 million TEU
The Asia-Europe route is currently facing the same problem as the Pacific route, that is, the shortage of container equipment and capacity keeps the freight rate at a high level. Sea-Intelligence analysts said that the problem of container shortages is very difficult. The imbalance of east-west traffic on the Pacific route has made the shortage of equipment worse . The current North American imports account for most of the global increase in shipping containers, while North American exports have Weakening. Under normal circumstances, the imbalance of east-west shipping volume will usually cause a monthly deficit of about 2.5 million TEUs in Asia. This gap is filled by empty containers from other regions . But in October 2020, this number soared to 3.4 million TEUs, which means that the equipment gap has reached nearly 1 million TEUs.
Sea intelligence believes that the lack of empty containers is the primary problem faced by shippers. However, this problem is currently difficult to solve, and there is no way to quickly mobilize 1 million additional empty containers, especially when many ports are currently facing congestion. Analysts predict that this situation will continue until at least early February 2021.
After a further surge last week, the spot freight rate for containers from Asia to Northern Europe is now 130% higher than the beginning of the year, up 200% year-on-year. The Far East-Europe trade route is still under tremendous pressure, and the freight rate will continue to rise further.
In the current peak season, the influx of imported goods from Asia into the United States does not seem to have eased. Los Angeles and Long Beach are still in a state of collapse and paralysis. There are as many as 20 ships lining up near the west coast, waiting for the empty space in LA Long Beach Port to unload.
Australian ports remain congested, with more than 75,000 teu stranded in Sydney.
Freight rates in the Asian intra-route market remained stable, but from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by a staggering 390.5%.
Europe-to-land route : The North European spot freight rate of the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) just released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange increased by 13.5% to US$2,374 per TEU, and the Mediterranean freight rate increased by US$165 to US$2384, spot The freight rate increased by 7.4%. It is worth noting that the year-on-year growth rate in Northern Europe was 196.8%, and the year-on-year growth rate in the Mediterranean was 209.2%. But in fact, the market freight rate is much higher than this.
A Shanghai-based non-vessel carrier said that several shipping companies are currently offering more than US$6,000/40-foot container to Rotterdam and more than US$8,000/40-foot container to the UK.
A freight forwarder in China stated that the carriers on this route are now purely focused on maximizing freight revenue, regardless of all other agreements. He said: "Shipping companies only give priority to higher-priced spaces-whoever pays more will get the space."
Christoph Baumeister, senior trade manager for Flexport Asia/ISC-Europe, said the situation for Asian shippers was “worse than week after week”. He added: "The Far East-Northern Europe/Southern Europe trade route is still under tremendous pressure, and freight rates will rise further this week."
Moreover, according to data from the freight benchmark company Xeneta, the current average price of short-term market contracts in Asia and Europe of three months or less is 200% higher than a year ago, at $4,831 per 40 feet.
Although Xeneta’s long-term contract freight data showed an increase of 28% to US$1,648 per 40 feet, it pointed out that despite the peak contract season, few deals have been concluded because shippers and carriers think it’s not the time.
In the trans-Pacific region , the spot freight rate remained basically unchanged last week and stabilized at a record level. According to SCFI data, the spot price on the west coast of the United States rose by US$68 to US$3947 per 40 feet, while the port price on the east coast fell by US$8. To $4,700 per 40 feet. The year-on-year growth rates of the West Coast and East Coast of the United States were 161.6% and 78.2%, respectively.
Since mid-September, due to the intervention of Chinese regulatory agencies, the spot market on this route has remained stable, and shipping companies hope to obtain guaranteed income from their premiums.
As the influx of merchandise imports from Asia into the United States during the peak season did not seem to ease, the Port of Los Angeles data confirmed that the port's imports in the 50th and 51st weeks increased by 37% and 54% year-on-year respectively.
The continued growth of imports has put tremendous pressure on the San Pedro Bay ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach. Freightos Chief Marketing Officer Eytan Buchman said: "There are reports that as many as 20 ships are lining up near the west coast, waiting for the unloading of empty spaces in the Port of Long Beach, LA. Retailers are eager to put these goods on the shelves before the holidays."
As for Australia and New Zealand routes , with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation and the continuous growth of transportation demand during the traditional peak season, the market freight rate has increased. According to the SCFI index, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharge) for exports from Shanghai to the basic port of Australia and New Zealand was US$2490/TEU, up 2.5% from the previous period. But the Australian shipping business is currently in a "state that has never been so bad."
The continued "chaos" in the Australian container supply chain will mean that some retailers' shelves will be empty during Christmas.
The impact of supply chain delays caused by the Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) strike in early October continues. The shipping company stated that the disruption of shipping schedules caused a backlog of "8 to 10 weeks" delays (8 weeks of delay means that retailers will not have inventory "until January of next year"), but the union denies that this is the reason. Rather, it points to the increase in demand during the peak season.
According to the Freight and Trade Alliance (F&TA), trade imbalances, resulting in a large surplus of empty containers and lack of storage areas for storing these containers, are still the main problems hindering the supply chain. F&TA Director Paul Zalai said: “Currently, it is estimated that the imbalance of containers is 75,000 teu, which is stranded in Sydney’s empty container yard and operator’s warehouse. The surplus of empty containers will cause Sydney’s logistics to fall from the current congestion state to an unsolvable situation. deadlock."
The peak season demand has increased the spot freight rate from China to Melbourne to US$2490, compared with US$1648 in mid-October. Paul Zalai believes that the country’s shipping industry has “never seen such a bad situation.” He explained: “Our ports are congested, services are limited, freight prices are at record highs, detention, congestion and terminal access surcharges continue to increase. "At the same time, similar shipping delays have also affected importers in the Tasman region. Due to the chain reaction caused by port congestion in Australia, the Port of Auckland in New Zealand experienced delays this year.
The market freight rates of intra-Asia routes also remained stable last week, but from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by an astonishing 390.5%.
Although these are eye-catching figures, it is important not to forget that 65% to 75% of all goods are transported on the basis of contract freight rates rather than spot market freight rates. However, due to the exhaustion of the number of contracts (many contracts are in unexpected periods when consumer demand is out of control) the rest tends to the spot freight market. When contract negotiations restart next year, the strong bull market will also benefit shipping companies.
Andy Lane of CTI Consulting in Singapore commented: “There is still one month before the new Asian-European contract. This is under the background of record-breaking spot freight rates. Prices may rise sharply, which will have a real impact on the market."
Against the backdrop of the global raging COVID-19 pandemic, this year's global container shipping industry seems to be sitting on a magical "seesaw". On one side, there is a shortage of containers and high freight rates, and the other is port congestion . The two issues alternate across oceans and continents, torturing the fragile nerves of cargo owners.
However, although industry analysts sing the recovery of the operating industry, industry insiders are still cautious about the "boom" that occurred during the epidemic, especially after the middle of next year, the market supply and demand trend is still like a fog, and there are still larger ones. Uncertainty.
The problem of shortage of containers has attracted the attention of the Ministry of Commerce. On December 3, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that, on the basis of the preliminary work, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to promote the increase of transportation capacity, support the acceleration of container return, improve operation efficiency, support container manufacturers to expand production capacity, and increase The intensity of market supervision, efforts to stabilize market prices, provide strong logistics support for the steady development of foreign trade.
The epidemic caused port failure
The problem of container shortages is happening alternately across the Pacific and the Atlantic this year.
According to Bloomberg data, in the first quarter of this year, European and American ports such as Hamburg in Germany, Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Antwerp in Belgium, and Long Beach and Los Angeles in the United States have all fallen into a state of extreme shortage of containers. The port container holdings have reached a record low, while Chinese ports are stranded in a large number of containers. Waiting for quarantine. In the third quarter, the situation was reversed. The overseas epidemic was severe and the port was understaffed. According to statistics, the Port of Sydney, Australia had piled up at least 50,000 TEUs of containers to be processed. Many ports were charged with congestion charges. Hard to find" status.
Generally speaking, problems such as shortage of containers and port congestion are routine problems in the industry, which are easy to appear in peak seasons, and are also related to port processing efficiency. However, the failure of port operations caused by the epidemic has undoubtedly extended the loading and unloading time of containers.
According to a reporter from the Securities Times, due to the need for epidemic prevention, the Port of Los Angeles has temporarily reduced the number of dockers and port personnel by about one-third, and the loading and unloading of ships has been greatly affected. Due to the continuing effects of shortages of equipment and prolonged loading and unloading time in ports, a large number of imported containers have been backlogged in European and American ports, congested terminals and poor container turnover, which has hindered cargo transportation.
The global container shortage difference can be seen from the Container Availability Index (Container Availability Index) released by the container source traceability platform xChang: In July, the supply of 40-foot containers at the Port of Los Angeles was insufficient; by the end of September, the port’s container availability index had increased by 4 times. Oversupply; since September, Qingdao Port (6.110, -0.02, -0.33%) usable containers have begun to decline, and by October the usable index of 40-foot containers has fallen by half, and 20-foot containers have also been in short supply.
Strong Asian exports become an important driving force for recovery
Looking at the whole year, the geographical imbalance of the shortage of containers is more significant, which is directly related to the timing of the outbreak.
According to data provided by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in mid-March, the number of global container ship arrivals began to fall below the level of 2019 and did not start to recover until the third week of June. This timetable basically coincides with the World Health Organization’s listing of the new crown pneumonia as a pandemic and the deteriorating epidemic in Europe and the United States. On the other hand, the number of container ship arrivals at Chinese ports has gradually recovered since June, which is also in line with China’s The lock release time corresponds to that.
In terms of absolute volume comparison, most regions started to recover from the third quarter, but globally, the port container ship berthing volume in early August was still 3% lower than the same period last year, and North America and Europe were 16.3% lower than the same period last year. And 13.2%. In contrast, the number of port calls in China (including Hong Kong) has exceeded the level of last year, an increase of 4.1%.
China's shipping import and export took the lead in the recovery. The fundamental factor is that the domestic epidemic prevention and control has achieved major results, and the production side has taken the lead in recovery, effectively making up for the global supply gap caused by the impact of the epidemic, and also supporting the continuous growth of exports.
China Customs statistics show that in the first and second quarters of this year, China’s import and export growth rates were -6.5% and -0.2%, respectively. They were reversed in the third quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The total value of imports and exports reached 8.88 trillion yuan. Stable, the cumulative growth rate turned negative to positive. It is worth noting that due to the changes in lifestyles caused by the epidemic, the export of notebook computers and home appliances has increased; the export of epidemic prevention materials has also risen rapidly. The export of textiles including masks reached 828.78 billion yuan, an increase of 37.5%; medical materials and medicines, The export of medical instruments and equipment increased by 21.8% and 48.2% respectively.
According to information provided by UNCTAD to a reporter from the Securities Times, although China was the first country to be affected by the epidemic, in the first quarter, China’s overseas trade, transportation and exports were not interrupted, so the transportation at Chinese ports remained unobstructed; on the contrary; It was in the second quarter that due to the escalating blockades of various countries, economic activities were restricted, and the transportation of logistics personnel was blocked, leading to a sharp drop in imports from various countries. At this time, the impact on port operations increased significantly. Subsequently, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States became more and more serious, and the key figures of the centralized transportation industry also bottomed out in the middle of the year. At the end of May, the World Ports Association pointed out that the number of container ships calling at about 45% worldwide dropped by 5% to 25%, and most of the cancelled ships came from the Far East route.
According to data from Alphaliner, an international shipping consulting and analysis agency, the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the first half of the year has reduced the chartering revenue of large container ships by half. Starting in the third quarter, global shipping capacity has recovered, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, reaching 123 million TEUs, strong exports from Asia Become an important driving force for recovery.
In terms of the capital market, the share prices of listed companies in the A-share centralized transportation industry have also started in June and have risen significantly in the third quarter. CIMC (14.830, 0.20, 1.37%) and COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (9.680, 0.06, 0.62%) The performance of related listed companies also increased substantially in the third quarter.
Strong demand for containers is expected to continue into the first quarter of next year
Returning to the shipping industry itself, many shipping companies around the world took the initiative to suspend shipping under the influence of the epidemic in the first half of this year.
As the world’s top five airlines, Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, pointed out at the third-quarter performance briefing that in April this year, demand suddenly dropped by 20% and lost 200 million U.S. dollars per month, so it must be suspended to reduce 60% of the cost. He pointed out: "The market at this stage is driven by demand, not by inventory replenishment. The entire market is trying to get empty containers back to where they are needed."
In terms of container freight rates, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange have set new highs. On November 27, CCFI quoted 1198.72 points, an increase of 4.6% over the previous week; SCFI quoted 2048.27 points, an increase of 109.95 points over the previous week. Under the strong demand, the price of offshore export containers also rose sharply. On November 27, the export container price of Southeast Asia routes was quoted at 995.67 points, an increase of nearly 20% over the previous week.
According to the analysis of China Securities Regulatory Commission, the supply side has not launched large-scale capacity at this stage, while the demand side has continued to grow rapidly, which will become the fundamental reason for the increase in freight rates in the transportation industry. Although the epidemic has led to pessimistic global economic expectations, in fact, the European and American manufacturing PMI index is still in the expansion range driven by policy, which provides economic fundamental support for the increase in freight rates.
However, someone from a shipping company pointed out to a reporter from the Securities Times that in the last 10 to 12 years, the shipping industry has not made any money or even recovered the cost of capital; long-term low-price competition is difficult to promote the healthy development of the industry.
So, can the epidemic promote the long-term recovery of the industry? Most people in the industry are cautious about this.
Rolf Habben Jansen pointed out that the current market is very, very strong, "but it is illogical to think that this situation will continue in the next few years." He expects that the situation will change in the next three or four quarters, and the company needs to be prepared to act quickly.
Container shipping companies and leasing companies also told reporters that the outlook is difficult to predict. Although the strong demand for containers is expected to continue into the first quarter of next year, after the middle of next year, there is still greater uncertainty in the market supply and demand trends. If European and American countries are still under lockdown or vaccine research and development and promotion fall short of expectations, and the macro economy falls into a sustained recession, the good growth momentum of the container transportation industry may not be able to maintain.
At present, the number of confirmed cases of new crown in the world has exceeded 60 million, and many countries have implemented stricter epidemic prevention measures. Experts reminded to be highly vigilant against the rebound of the winter epidemic. On the domestic front, economic and trade continued to recover steadily, and the vitality of the manufacturing market increased. In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers index continued to rebound from the previous month. In late November, the China Ports Association monitored that the cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports dropped slightly by 0.4% year-on-year, of which the foreign trade cargo throughput dropped by 3.4% year-on-year; the Yangtze River port production accelerated, and the hub port throughput increased by 24.7% year-on-year. Details are as follows:
1. The container business of the eight major hub ports rebounded steadily
On the one hand, the current domestic epidemic prevention and control has achieved practical results, and the manufacturing industry has effectively recovered under various policy incentives; on the other hand, the recovery of external demand has driven a significant increase in foreign trade export orders. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the manufacturing new orders index and the import and export prosperity index both rebounded steadily in October. In late November, the China Ports Association monitored that the container throughput of the eight major hub ports increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5 percentage points lower than the previous period; of which, the container throughput of foreign trade increased by 3.8% year-on-year, and the domestic trade increased by 3.6% year-on-year. In terms of ports, the container throughput of Tianjin, Qingdao, Shanghai and Shenzhen ports increased by more than 10%. It is worth noting that the freight rate of the US route has continued to be high recently, and the market freight rate of the European ground route has also risen sharply year-on-year due to the significant increase in cargo sources. The shortage of space and cargo containers on ocean routes is more prominent.
2. Key monitoring port coal business continues to maintain a rebound trend
In late November, the temperature fell across the country, and the rapid recovery of power plant loads along the river and coastal areas led to a significant increase in daily coal consumption. The decline in available days of inventory boosted market procurement enthusiasm. The number of anchor ships in northern ports increased significantly, and the amount of coal launched continued to increase. In the current period, the coal throughput of Qinhuangdao Port and Shenhua Huanghua Port increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and increased by 2.9% from mid-year. Port inventory continued to decline. On November 30, the coal inventory of the two ports decreased by 18.5% year-on-year, which was a decrease of 1.4% from November 20.
3. Crude oil throughput of key monitoring ports dropped year-on-year
Recently, fuel prices have risen for four consecutive weeks under the stimulus of positive progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, a weak U.S. dollar, and tensions in the Middle East. Nevertheless, OPEC and allies still tend to postpone oil production increases plans to support the market during the second wave of the global epidemic. In this period, the China Ports Association focused on monitoring the crude oil throughput of coastal ports, which decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, but increased by 3.1% from the middle. Port stocks are sufficient. Crude oil stocks at the ports monitored on November 30 increased by 26.8% compared with the same period last year and increased by 3.2% from November 20.
4. Key monitoring port metal ore throughput growth has accelerated
Recently, the steel market demand has been generally stable, and steel stocks have continued to decline month-on-month. Weather factors in the northern region have a certain impact on the demand for building materials, and the boom in the manufacturing industry drives the demand for industrial steel. Steel mills are generally profitable and have high production enthusiasm. The price of iron ore repeatedly broke new historical highs. On the 30th, the contract price of iron ore 2101 reached 911.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7% from the 20th. On November 24, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and other four ministries jointly issued a document stating that my country will completely ban the import of scrap steel from 2021, which will also boost iron ore prices to a certain extent. In late November, the China Ports Association's key monitoring port metal ore throughput increased by 16.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased significantly. Among them, the growth rate of Tianjin Port and Rizhao Port both exceeded 15%, and the growth rate of Ningbo Zhoushan Port exceeded 30%. Downstream steel mills have strong demand, and port inventory has shown a downward trend. Statistics show that on November 30, the key monitoring port inventory decreased by 4.9% year-on-year.
5. Throughput growth of the Yangtze River hub port has accelerated overall
In late November, production at the ports of the Yangtze River accelerated in an all-round way, reflecting the positive economic recovery in the hinterland. Statistics show that the cargo throughput of the three ports of Nanjing, Wuhan, and Chongqing increased by 24.7% year-on-year, 12% faster than the previous period, and the throughput of foreign trade cargo also maintained a rapid growth. Among them, the growth rate of Nanjing Port was nearly 30%, and that of Wuhan Port and Chongqing Port was about 20%. The container business further accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 26.9%, an acceleration of about 10 percentage points over the previous period; the growth rate of Wuhan Port exceeded 90%.
6. Overview of key monitoring port production in November
In November, the cargo throughput of coastal ports monitored by the China Ports Association increased by 4% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 1.1% from January to November.
The container business continued to maintain a good recovery trend. In November, the container throughput of the eight major hub ports increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points lower than that in October. Among them, foreign trade increased by 8.4%, a drop of 3.5 percentage points from October, and domestic trade increased by 9.4% year-on-year, slightly faster than October. In terms of ports, the growth rate of container throughput in Tianjin, Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo Zhoushan and Shenzhen ports all exceeded 10%. The cumulative container throughput of the eight major hub ports from January to November returned to the level of the same period last year.
The coal market has entered a peak demand season, and throughput growth has accelerated. The coal throughput of Qinhuangdao Port and Shenhua Huanghua Port in November increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was about 1 percentage point higher than that in October. The cumulative decline from January to November was 4.4% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed.
Crude oil imports slowed further. The throughput of key monitoring ports in November fell by 4.2% year-on-year, which was the first year-on-year decline since April. The cumulative increase from January to November was 8.9% year-on-year.
The growth rate of ore throughput dropped. The ore throughput of key monitoring ports in November increased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 2 percentage points from October. The cumulative increase from January to November was 7.6% year-on-year.
Production at the Yangtze River Port has been accelerated. In November, the cargo throughput and container throughput of the Yangtze River hub port increased by 18.7% and 18.8% year-on-year respectively, setting the highest growth rate for the year. From January to November, cargo throughput and container throughput dropped by 3.4% and 4.9% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed.
In the past few months, due to the severe shortage of available empty containers, the global supply chain has been hit, causing exporters to have a headache. However, new research shows that there is an obvious problem in the container supply chain-empty containers stay in warehouses for an average of 45 days, while in China, the average time for each idle container is more than two months.
The research project of German company FraunhoferCML and Container xChange shows that although China and the United States urgently need containers, the average residence time of empty containers in warehouses is 61-66 days, which is much higher than the global average of 45 days.
The east coast of the United States is usually the location of surplus container equipment (the 40DC container availability value was 0.7 last year), but the container availability rate dropped to 0.43, indicating that there are actually fewer containers than needed.
The researchers said that compared with the Middle East (21 days on average) and Europe (23 days on average), the high standard deviations of 85 days in North America and 129 days in Asia indicate that in many cases, containers stay in warehouses longer than average. Much more.
Container xChange is a platform that connects users and suppliers. The platform stated that the availability of containers across China is still at a record low, while the surge in shipping containers from Asia has overwhelmed US ports, and retailers are eager to put their products on the shelves.
Not only is there a serious shortage of 40-foot tall containers (hc) in the shipping market, but there is also a shortage of 40-foot standard containers, and even 20-foot containers are sometimes in short supply.
The container availability rate of 40HCs is only 0.05 CAx (container availability rate) points, compared with 0.63 in the same period last year.
Asia's container manufacturing industry is working overtime to produce, which accounts for 45% of the global container manufacturing market. China International Marine Containers, the world's largest container manufacturer, announced an increase in its orders.
The factory is stepping up container building, and container orders have been scheduled to the first quarter of next year. Even so, the demand for millions of containers has made it impossible for container manufacturing to quench its thirst. The world's three largest container leasing giants have issued a warning that the shortage of containers will continue for four months.
Chinese shippers and freight forwarders all over the world "seeking" empty containers, but where did the empty containers go? The answer is simple, it is blocked in other ports.
While the Asian port and shipping industry is desperately desperate for empty containers, although there is a shortage of shipping capacity, price increases can be used to push shipping companies to cancel suspending, refilling, and increase shipping capacity; however, a large number of containers full of cargo are seriously stranded in European and American ports and warehouses. , Unable to move.
In order to alleviate the serious imbalance in equipment, shipping companies have adopted an active strategy for exports to Europe and the United States, suspending orders, and preferring to use as many empty containers as possible to fill return ships.
In fact, in order to prevent all but the most expensive goods, European exporters to Asia are required to pay more than $5,000 per 40-foot container to ensure shipment in December. A British freight forwarder said that many shipping companies now refuse to accept export orders before mid-January. "Our customers are willing to pay such a high freight, but due to port congestion, we are still working hard to get the boxes away. Some boxes have been on the dock for more than four weeks and still don't know when they will be shipped."
At the same time, the urgently needed empty containers in Asia are scattered in warehouses across Europe, especially in the United Kingdom, where troubled ports have to restrict container delivery to already overcrowded terminals.
The current shortage of containers is a once-in-a-century problem in the history of the global supply chain, and it is basically unsolvable in the short term.
Affected by the epidemic, more and more countries have been "closed" for the second time, and the ports of many countries have become full of containers. Lack of containers, exploded cabins, dumped containers, jumping into ports, and frantically rising freight rates, foreign traders are under unprecedented pressure.
The latest data shows that European freight rates have increased by 170% year-on-year, and Mediterranean freight rates have increased by 203% year-on-year. In addition, as the U.S. epidemic becomes more severe and air transportation routes are blocked, shipping prices will continue to rise.
With strong shipping demand and a large shortage of containers, shippers are facing soaring container freight and surcharges, but this is just the beginning. The market may become more chaotic in the next month.
Freight rates continue to soar, 170% in Europe and 203% in the Mediterranean
China's export container shipping market continues to be high. The freight rates of many ocean routes increased to varying degrees, and the composite index continued to rise.
On November 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 2048.27 points, an increase of 5.7% over the previous period. With the increase in freight rates and surcharges, Asia-Europe shippers will face more pain.
Last week, the spot freight rate of containers from Asia to Northern Europe rose by 27%, breaking through US$2,000/TEU. The carrier plans to further increase FAK prices in December. The Northern European part of the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by US$447 to US$2091 per TEU, up 170% year-on-year.
The price of SCFI at Mediterranean ports also surged 23% to US$2,219 per TEU, a 203% increase from 12 months ago.
For shippers in Asia and Europe, this pain of high freight rates shows no sign of ending. In addition to the large surcharges and premium product fees currently charged to ensure on-board equipment and space, freight rates will be further increased next month. .
On the return route, the situation of European exporters can be said to be worse; it is reported that they cannot secure bookings to Asia at any price before January.
Continuation of the high market, the overall freight rate continues to rise
The continued shortage of containers has further exacerbated the lack of capacity in the market, and the freight rates of most routes have increased, which has pushed up the comprehensive index.
On the European route, the capacity continues to be insufficient, and most of the flight booking rates have risen again.
For North American routes, the market supply-demand relationship remained at a relatively good level, and the spot market freight rates were high and stabilized.
On the Persian Gulf, Australia and New Zealand routes, and South America routes, the demand for transportation is strong, and the market freight rates continue to rise, rising by 8.4%, 0.6% and 2.5% respectively in this period.
European routes have strong transport demand. The repeated epidemics in Europe have stimulated local import demand, and the market volume has remained high. The tightness of airline capacity is still increasing, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been alleviated. Last week, the average space utilization rate of ships in Shanghai Port basically remained at the full level. Affected by this, most airlines will raise their freight rates at the beginning of next month, and the spot market freight rates will rise sharply.
On North American routes , the new crown epidemic in the United States is still severe. The cumulative number of confirmed cases and the number of new cases in a single day are still top of the list. The severe epidemic hinders the unpacking and transshipment of materials. The market capacity is relatively stable, but the market capacity is limited by the ever-increasing shortage of containers, the upside is limited, and the supply and demand conditions remain unchanged. Last week, the average space utilization rate of ships on the US West and East US routes at Shanghai Port was still close to full capacity. The route freight rate remained stable, and the spot market booking price was basically the same as the previous period.
For the Persian Gulf route , the market performance is generally stable, demand remains stable, market capacity is controlled within a relatively reasonable range, and the relationship between supply and demand remains balanced. Last week, the utilization rate of the shipping space of Shanghai Port remained above 95%, and individual flights were fully loaded. Most commercial airlines maintained their freight rates unchanged, and a few adjusted slightly, and the spot market freight rates rose slightly.
For Australia and New Zealand routes , the destination market is in the peak transportation season, transportation demand is rising steadily, and the relationship between supply and demand remains good. Last week, the average space utilization rate of ships in Shanghai Port remained above 95%, and most flights were fully loaded. Most airlines have maintained their booking prices at the previous period, but some have slightly increased, and the spot market freight rates have increased.
For South American routes , South American countries have insufficient capacity due to the epidemic, relying on imports for a large number of materials, and transportation demand continues to run at a high level. In this period, the average space utilization rate of ships in Shanghai Port was close to the full-load level. Under these fundamentals, most airlines increased their booking prices towards the beginning of the month, and the spot market freight rates increased.
Major shipping companies will issue another notice of price increases in 2021!
▍Maersk charges a peak season surcharge from the Far East to Europe
Maersk announced that it has imposed a new peak season surcharge (PSS) in Europe and East Asia from December to next year.
Suitable for refrigerated goods from the Far East to Northern and Southern European countries. The surcharge will be $1000/20' reefer container, $1500/40' reefer container, and will take effect on December 15, Taiwan PSS will take effect on January 1, 2021.
Far East to Northern Europe
Far East to North and South Europe
The Maersk 2M Alliance partner Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) will use the following various (FAK) rates from Europe to Canada and Mexico.
• Carrier Security Check Fee (CSF): US$11 per container
• Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EBS) (when applicable): US$500 per refrigerator, US$100/TEU per dry container
In addition, MSC has made the following rate adjustments from December 1, 2020 until further notice, but not more than December 31, 2020.
▍ CMA CGM
CMA CGM, the world's third largest container shipping company, has started the new year and will introduce the latest FAK rates from Northern Europe to Canada, the east coast of Mexico, the east and west coasts of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico.
• Cargo: dry containers, reefer containers, tank containers and special equipment
• Cargo: dry containers, reefer containers, tank containers and special equipment
• Cargo: all types
• USEC, US Gulf and USWC include New York, Norfolk, Savannah, Charleston, Houston, Miami, New Orleans and Oakland.
From January 1, CMA CGM will also implement the following FAK rates for dry containers, reefer containers, open containers, pallets and shipper-owned containers (SOC).
▍Hapao features GRI rates from East Asia to the United States and Canada
Effective date: January 1, 2021.
This increase applies to all dry containers, reefer containers, non-working reefer containers, tank containers, frame containers and open top containers.
East Asia to North America (United States and Canada):
USD 960 for all 20' container types
USD 1,200 for all 40' container types
East Asia includes countries/regions in Japan, South Korea, China/Taiwan/Hong Kong/Macau, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, the Philippines and Russia’s Pacific Rim provinces.
In addition, Hapag-Lloyd also released new (GRI) rates for all dry containers, reefer containers, non-operating reefer containers, storage tanks, frame containers and open top containers from South Asia and Northeast Asia to Australia , Effective from January 1st.
Southeast Asia to Australia
• US $ 150/20'
• US $ 300/40'
Northeast Asia to Australia
• US $ 300/20'
• US $ 600/40'
Southeast Asia includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, while Northeast Asia includes South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
According to current market conditions, Hapag-Lloyd will increase the GRI rate for all cargo and all container types from East Asia to the East Coast of South America from December 7, 2020, to USD 550 per container.
Hapag-Lloyd announced the rates for all 20' and 40' (high container) goods in the westbound trade from East Asia (including Japan) to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean. The collection will start on December 15, 2020, and will be collected until further notice. Various cargoes (FAK) subject to marine fuel recovery (MFR):
The port is not the boss, the ship is not the boss, and the cargo is the boss. This is a "golden sentence" circulating in the port and shipping industry. However, the freight forwarder who has been busy in the front line of cargo booking may tell you that at this moment of chaos in this industry, the port is not the boss, the ship is not the boss, and the cargo is not the boss. You can't get the empty space if you grab the head. The box is the boss .
In recent weeks, due to a severe shortage of empty containers, some container ships sailing from Asia to Europe cannot even be fully utilized. A shipping source said, “Recently, we have to vacate some spaces because China does not have enough containers to meet freight demand.” Almost all transport companies have reported that they have a serious shortage of 40-foot high containers (hc) and 40 There is also a shortage of standard containers, and even 20-foot containers are sometimes in short supply.
The latest container availability index report from Container xChange shows that the availability of containers in various ports in China is at a record low. From the perspective of the container availability index, the index higher than 0.5 indicates a surplus of empty container inventory, and lower than 0.5 indicates a shortage of empty containers. The current availability of 40-foot containers in China is only 0.05 CAx points, compared with 0.63 points in the same period last year .
Chinese shippers and freight forwarders all over the world "seeking" empty containers, but where did the empty containers go? The answer is simple, it is blocked in other ports.
While the Asian port and shipping industry is desperately desperate for empty containers, warehouses across Europe, especially in the UK, are filled with "immobile" boxes in troubled ports and overcrowded docks.
Affected by the epidemic, shipping companies have used methods such as suspension of voyages and port jumps to control capacity and adjust freight rates, but to a certain extent they also broke the balance of empty and heavy containers between routes. With the gradual recovery of the economy, the trade demand of various countries has rebounded, and the exports of Europe and the United States have grown strongly. However, under the continuous epidemic situation, the various quarantine and epidemic prevention measures added by the port customs will inevitably slow down the circulation of containers. Coupled with the gathering of festivals such as "Black Friday" and "Christmas", the port operation capacity will not be able to keep up with the number of boxes. , The result is that a large number of containers are blocked in the port, empty containers can not go out, heavy containers can not enter. In some British ports, the volume of container transportation in recent months has even been 30% higher than normal, resulting in too many empty containers throughout the UK, and even the alarming phenomenon of containers being piled "at your doorstep".
A British freight forwarder said, "Even if customers are prepared to pay close to crazy freight rates to ensure that the goods are shipped, we are still busy trying to transport the empty containers because the port is already full. Some empty containers on the dock are already After being placed for more than four weeks, we still don’t know when they will be loaded."
In order to ensure the smooth operation of global logistics, liner companies have adopted some unconventional container deployment strategies, such as shortening the free container usage period to stimulate and speed up the circulation of containers on key routes; key routes and long-distance base ports give priority to container use and priority Vacant containers are deployed to countries and regions such as China, Southeast Asia, etc.; the monitoring of container return is slow. For example, some areas in Africa cannot receive goods normally, resulting in whether the container is returned or not. The liner company will comprehensively evaluate and reasonably release the container; some shipping companies even suspend it Made export reservations to Europe and the United States in order to fill as many empty containers as possible back to Asia. However, due to the empty container regulation of shipping companies, the freight rates on the Asia-Europe routes have also been increasing, and the market seems to be in a vicious circle of chaos.
At the same time, a survey conducted by xChange and FraunhoferCML, a German maritime research consultant, showed that despite the large-scale progress in global port handling technology, the time that containers remain empty in ports is still surprisingly long. This report unexpectedly shows that the global container vacancy phenomenon is very serious. The vacant time of each container in the port is 45 days on average, while the vacant time of containers in empty container shortage areas such as China and the United States is longer, 61 days and 61 days respectively. 66 days.
Obviously, the circulation of empty containers is a problem that the entire industry needs to face squarely, but it has been ignored by the industry for a long time. In the sudden crisis of the epidemic, the "old problems" have further deteriorated and gradually developed into today's thorny problems.
It is understood that CIMC, which accounts for 45% of the global container manufacturing market, said that the company is currently stepping up container building and container orders have been scheduled to the first quarter of next year. However, waiting for the new containers to leave the factory, after all, "far water can't save the immediate emergency", and the situation of "a box is hard to find" is expected to continue for some time. In addition to working overtime and deploying empty containers, what else can shipping companies and ports do? The structural empty container circulation problem may be difficult to obtain an optimal solution in a short period of time, but "it is not too late to make up for it". It is time to put more resources and efforts on solving the empty container problem.
