On January 11, it was learned from the Tianjin Municipal Transportation Commission that in order to thoroughly implement the spirit of the important instructions of General Secretary Jinping’s inspection of Tianjin Port, and firmly promote the construction of a world-class port, the Tianjin Port and Shipping Bureau will lead the organization and the Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Commerce will jointly participate. The "Electronic Platform for Container Import Bill of Lading" developed and constructed by Tianjin Port Group was officially launched in early January 2021 . So far, the three major paper documents (equipment handover list, packing list, bill of lading) for the circulation of container cargo have all been electronic.
The full implementation of the electronic bill of lading can not only provide comprehensive and multi-angle protection for data flow, but also the whole-process paperless business handling model such as online business authorization, online luggage appointment, check code paperless luggage, etc., which greatly improves the related Optimization effect of business links. On the one hand, the paper document handover link between the freight forwarder and the fleet, the fleet and the driver, and the driver and the dock is eliminated, business links are greatly reduced, and the efficiency of order processing is increased by 75%; on the other hand, the online application of electronic bill of lading solves the problem The problem of "multiple errands" that has plagued customers in the carrying business link for a long time, so that they no longer need to frequently travel between the business acceptance windows of shipping companies, shipping agents, terminals, and yards, saving related companies a lot of time and labor costs , Allowing relevant enterprises to fully appreciate the informatization work tenet of "more data runs, less people run errands".
It is understood that in 2019, Tianjin Port and Shipping Bureau promoted the establishment of a "one-code connection" logistics information data platform for import and export international containers. Tianjin Port relied on this platform to realize the information exchange of various service entities in the import and export link, and completed the container logistics chain. The information flow of links, paper handover documents have been realized paperless. However, the bill of lading, as an important document for the consignee and its agent to pick up the goods, is related to the transfer and handover of the right to pick up the goods. It has a certain effect of the property right certificate. Once an error occurs, it will bring greater risks and there are many circulation links. , The delay in achieving electronicization has become a bottleneck restricting the facilitation of cross-border trade and the improvement of port logistics efficiency.
In order to get through the last “mile” that affects the paperless process of port documents, in January 2020, Tianjin Port and Shipping Bureau, Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Commerce and Tianjin Port Group officially launched the construction of the electronic container import bill of lading project.
In the past year, Tianjin Port and Shipping Bureau, together with Tianjin Port Group and other relevant departments and units, conducted 12 special seminars on business process reengineering, information system construction, and security risk prevention and control related to the electronic bill of lading, and went to Shanghai and other domestic first-class seminars. Port study and research.
The promotion of the overall work has overcome the continuing adverse effects of the epidemic. In just 10 months, the development and construction of a complete set of information platform from concept design, application research, framework development, joint debugging and testing to formal operation was completed. It ranks among the top coastal ports in the country. During this period, under the unified organization and coordination of Tianjin Port and Shipping Bureau, relevant departments and units actively participated, accurately grasped the direction of platform construction and development, fully prepared platform operation preparations, and completed the first actual ship test on November 17, 2020 . Based on full access to test data and feedback from related shipping companies (shipping agents), freight forwarders, and port companies, the platform will be launched for trial operation on December 1, 2020, to further smooth the loading, unloading and transportation links of Tianjin Port and shore, and continue to improve the business chain The overall level of digitalization provides strong support to effectively enhance the port’s comprehensive service capabilities, continuously optimize the port’s business environment, and give full play to the important role of Tianjin Port in serving the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the “Belt and Road” strategy to provide a strong digital guarantee !
The new crown pneumonia epidemic has stimulated freight demand to a certain extent. In 2020, the import volume of containerized cargo in the United States will set a new historical record, and high import demand will continue until early 2021.
Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF), said: "Even in the context of the pandemic, the US retail sales will continue to grow strongly in 2020, thanks in part to the government. Stimulus policies. Retailers expect that the economic recovery will continue in 2021."
According to the latest monthly global port tracking report released by NFR and Hackett Associates, preliminary statistics show that in December 2020, the import volume of container cargo in major US ports was 2.02 million TEU.
NRF stated that if the final figures for December 2020 remain unchanged, the U.S. containerized cargo imports in 2020 will reach 21.9 million TEU, an increase of 1.5% over 2019, and break the 2018 annual record of 21.8 million TEU.
In addition, the agency also predicts that in January 2021, this number will reach 1.96 million TEU, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year, the busiest January in history.
Looking ahead, until May 2021, the import volume of containerized goods in the United States will continue to increase substantially.
Specifically: February is expected to reach 1.6 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%; March is 1.64 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 19%; April is 1.76 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and May is 1.86 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of up to 21.7%.
However, what worries retailers is that there is still a risk of supply chain disruption in the United States.
On the one hand, the congestion in US ports has not been significantly eased. The data shows that as of January 10, 2021, there are at least 47 ships waiting to enter the port at the anchorages outside the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Among them, 34 are container ships with a total capacity of more than 270,000 TEU. The largest ship is 16022TEU.
On the other hand, as the epidemic continues to spread in the United States, the number of confirmed cases in the United States has been increasing, and a large number of logistics industry practitioners are also unable to continue working due to the diagnosis of new crown pneumonia. Many logistics parks in the United States are facing serious manpower shortages.
The Inland Empire logistics zone, located about 100 kilometers east of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach, has become an important extension and logistics hub of the above two ports. However, due to the high proportion of employees in warehouses and distribution centers diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia, the supply chain of the logistics park is extremely fragile.
It is also worth noting that with the US President-elect Biden will be formally sworn in on January 20, 2021, the United States may implement a trillion-dollar economic stimulus plan.
Biden once said: "In order to prevent economic collapse, we should now invest a lot of money to develop the economy, which is very necessary."
US investment bank Evercore ISI analyzed that it is expected that there will be two rounds of stimulus policies in the future. First, in the first quarter of 2021, launch a package of US$1 trillion-1.5 trillion to stimulate consumption; second, in the second quarter of 2021, launch a long-term infrastructure package of approximately US$1 trillion.
These will lay the foundation for the US consumption boom in 2021.
It is foreseeable that the US economic stimulus policy will bring more cargo volume, which is expected to directly benefit the container shipping market
On January 4, the freight rate from North Asia to the United Kingdom hit a record high. The reason was that demand continued to rise and the continued shortage of equipment plagued the market. Carriers had no choice but to increase freight rates to maintain profit margins.
The Platts Class 11 container rate from North Asia to the UK reached USD 10,000/FEU, an increase of 285% from November 30. These strong rates are expected to continue until the end of the quarter.
"This is the result of a combination of surge in demand and endless congestion. It will continue until February of the Chinese New Year." said a British freight forwarder.
Market participants are eager to avoid repeating the mistakes of the 2020 Lunar New Year holiday, because the 2020 coronavirus-related lockdown has caused a very slow recovery in China’s export demand, and for most of the past year, the container market has faced a huge Challenges.
Demand during the Chinese holiday period has recovered, which has inspired people to quickly resume work to deal with the backlog of orders, but although the situation is improving, there are some opinions in the market that worry that these optimism may be short-lived.
Nonetheless, the freight forwarder said that containers booked at lower prices have not yet been loaded onto the ship.
"I just cancelled 60 containers; they are destined to go to Europe." said a freight forwarder.
By the end of 2020, the increase in freight rates in the UK is greater than that in Northern Europe, because companies seek to stock up on goods before the UK leaves the EU Customs Union without reaching an agreement.
Uncertainty in future trade relations and concerns about border delays due to customs inspections have led to increased demand for goods. Coupled with the change in consumer spending habits, shifting from services to consumer goods, seasonal demand before Christmas, and replenishment of enterprises after the closure of the country due to national blockades, it is difficult for ports to cope with the increase in quantity. This sentiment has continued into a new year full of congestion, and these situations are still the concerns of many operators.
Felixstowe is the largest container port in the UK. The first problem facing the port is the increase in traffic and subsequent delays. With the increase in demand, the storage capacity of the port has been reduced in recent months because the government has stored PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) in the port. However, according to a statement issued by the Port of Felixstowe on December 13, the volume of PPE containers "has been greatly reduced since reaching the peak."
Flight delays in Felixstowe caused some carriers to modify their schedules outside the port. Maersk and MSC now come to Liverpool through their transatlantic services TA2 and NEUATL2 respectively. Those carriers still calling at Felixstowe have been charged a congestion charge; Hapag-Lloyd currently charges $175/TEU for all cargo passing through the port from Asia.
A freight forwarder said that this may just be the beginning of the British disaster. They said: "Large carriers may no longer provide services to the UK, but only feeder vessels can provide services to British ports."
Carriers need to relocate empty containers, which also results in some containers no longer accepting export bookings for containers loaded from Europe in the foreseeable future, which puts pressure on exporters in the UK and Europe.
On January 4, PCR2—from the North Continent to North Asia—increased from US$1,250/FEU a month ago to US$2,450/FEU.
An airline source said: "These are theoretical figures, no one is taking reservations."
Poorly packaged containers, coupled with the shipper’s misunderstanding of the dangers of certain non-dangerous goods, may cause more than $6 billion in losses to the supply chain each year.
The well-known freight and transportation insurance company TT Club stated that “analysis consistently shows that two-thirds of accidents related to cargo damage are caused or exacerbated by bad practices when packing cargo into containers.”
And explained: "This misconduct in the supply chain has caused millions of dollars in losses, including the death of seafarers and major delays caused by container ship fires. Based on known data, all such incidents are estimated to cause economic losses of more than 6 billion US dollars each year. ."
TT Club Loss Prevention Manager Michael Yarwood added: “The danger is not limited to chemical cargoes such as paints, cosmetics, cleaning products, fertilizers, herbicides and aerosols.
"A wide variety of consumer products and parts used in the manufacture of industrial products, household white goods and automobiles, if handled improperly during transportation, could cause major disasters."
"The list is long, and often surprising-barbecue charcoal, battery-powered electronics, fireworks, hand sanitizer, wool, cotton, plant fibers, marble, granite and other building materials, fish meal, seed cakes, etc."
He said: "Enterprises involved in purchasing, importing, storing, supplying or selling such goods should ensure that their procurement and logistics standards reach the highest level."
He urged shippers to refer to the "Code of Practice for Cargo Transport Unit Packaging" ("CTU Code") jointly published by the International Maritime Organization, the International Labour Organization and the United Nations Economic Commission, which is the industry's closest regulation on container packaging.
Mr. Yarwood said: “It provides comprehensive information on all aspects of packaging and securing goods in freight containers and other modes of transportation under sea and land transportation. It can not only guide the personnel responsible for packaging and securing the goods, but also guide the collection Cargo and unpacking personnel."
He added: "This also solves the crucial issue of correctly describing and declaring goods, including any specific information about the handling of dangerous goods."
He said: "In addition to the serious health and safety risks already described above, poorly packaged containers may also cause damage to adjacent cargo in the event of an accident and cause significant consequences to the shipper."
After the freight rate in the trans-Pacific market has remained stable for a period of time, it has recently started a rising mode.
According to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (Freightos Baltic Daily Index), on December 28, 2020, the freight rate of the Asia-US West Coast route reached US$4,189/FEU, a record high, an increase of 8% from December 25, which is the year of 2019. 3 times over the same period.
At the same time, the freight rate of the Asia-US East Coast route also reached an astonishing US$5397/FEU, a 9% increase from December 25 and twice the rate of the same period in 2019.
According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 25, 2020, the freight rates (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the basic port markets of the West and the East of the United States were 4,080 USD/FEU and 4,876 USD/FEU, respectively. The US West route rose 4.6% from the previous week.
Analysts of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said that the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to the West and East U.S. routes maintained at a level close to full load. However, the U.S. epidemic has blocked the turnover of containers, and a large number of containers are stranded at the local terminal. The congestion of the port is increasing, and the shortage of containers has not been alleviated.
In addition, a number of shipping companies including CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen Shipping, HMM, ONE, Yangming Shipping, and Star Shipping have announced that they will start on the trans-Pacific route from January 1, 2021. , Charge a comprehensive rate increase surcharge (GRI) ranging from US$1,000 to US$1,200/FEU.
The market predicts that the upward trend of freight rates will continue until January 2021.
In contrast to the fast-growing transportation demand, after a fully loaded ship arrived at the US West Port, it faced the dilemma of nowhere to stop.
According to a report released by the Marine Exchange of Southern California on December 28, 2020, a total of 24 container ships are anchored in San Pedro Bay, and another 5 ships are about to arrive.
According to the report, the local conventional anchorages are full of ships, and some emergency anchorages have also been occupied.
Marine Traffic uses an automatic identification system to draw a map that shows the extent of the accumulation of container ships in San Pedro Bay, which has deteriorated in recent weeks.
According to statistics, 26 additional ships called at the Port of Los Angeles in November and 31 ships in December. A port manager said that it is expected that in January 2021, more additional ships will call.
The loading and unloading capacity of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has already faced serious shortages. The Port of Los Angeles will import 116,500 TEU containers this week, and it is expected to increase significantly to 150,000 TEU per week by January 2021.
The continuous increase in freight rates and the severe congestion at the US West Port have caused shippers’ costs to hit unprecedented highs, and shippers have to reassess their transportation cost budgets for 2021.
The shipping industry in 2020 can be said to be half winter and half summer.
Affected by the epidemic, China's exports declined in the first half of the year, and the shipping industry was cold and "overwintering" ahead of schedule. In the second half of the year, the neglected shipping industry directly entered the "midsummer." As the epidemic situation in China stabilizes and the economy recovers steadily, goods from all countries are transferred from Chinese ports. For a time, China's shipping industry is showing a busy scene.
“It’s too difficult to order containers now!” A reporter from the Securities Daily could see vehicles transporting containers coming and going at the Shanghai port. A foreign trade official who did not want to be named told the reporter: “At present, I want to order a container. The price can be said to be one price per day. Not only that, even if the container is booked, I still have to worry about the availability of the cabin."
"Shanghai SIPG, Ningbo, and Shenzhen are all major ports in the world. In 2018 and 2019, the container throughput of Shanghai Port was ranked first. Recently, the container shipping market is very hot, and many boxes cannot be returned after they go out." People from listed companies commented on the reporter of "Securities Daily".
In this regard, Liu Wang, chairman of Shanghai Tianhui International Logistics Co., Ltd., told reporters: “The price of container transportation has been rising. Because shipping companies have fewer ships, they often suspend voyages, and the lack of boxes is common, even if the price increases. It cannot fundamentally solve the problem of missing boxes."
• One price a day, "boxes" are crazy
"The most exaggerated time in the past 10 years." Speaking of the current shipping industry, Ms. Xie, who is engaged in the foreign trade industry, told a reporter from the Securities Daily. Ms. Xie is mainly responsible for the freight of Guangzhou Nansha Port and Shenzhen Port. She told reporters that taking a 40-foot container as an example, the highest sea freight to the Middle East at this time last year was about US$3,000. It costs almost US$5,000 now. Last year, it was US$2,800 to US$3,200 to Europe, and now it is US$6,000 to US$7,000. This year, the freight is almost twice the same period last year.
By the end of the year, the lack of positions became a true portrayal of the operation industry.
“Nowadays, there is a shortage of containers and high freight rates. The supply exceeds demand. During the epidemic, there was a large backlog of foreign containers that could not be arranged for delivery, and no one carried the goods. Almost all customers were looting containers. Under current market conditions, there are few freight forwarders. When looking for new customers, they are basically priority old customers.” Ms. Xie told reporters that the new year is approaching, and major suppliers are fully shipping. It is expected that the shortage of containers will continue.
"First of all you have to have a position, then you have to line up the truck to get the container, and finally you have to wait for the port to open before you can enter the port. Every day, you have to go through five hurdles, and you have to face customer soul torture. It's late, can't you figure it out?" A shipping forwarder complained about the tightness of the current export containers.
Liu Wang revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Many forwarders who have no boxes sometimes look for scalpers. Now forwarders are looting positions. The positions have to be booked in advance. Many people robbed and reselled them. In the past, they did not lose their shipping fees. Now that the shipping companies are recovering their losses, the shipping companies are about to usher in a wave of market conditions this year. After the merger and reorganization last year, it is estimated that all the money lost in the past will be made back this year."
Liu Wang said: “In the past Christmas and the Spring Festival, there will be a wave of liquidation market, this year is particularly fierce because of the epidemic. South American container boxes were the lowest in history at 50 US dollars a small container, and now basically it costs more than 5,000 US dollars, and a large box 10,000. U.S. dollars, if $5,000 this week is too expensive for you, you may not be able to order $6,000 next week, basically one price a week."
In fact, the current container price has been upgraded to a daily basis. A person in charge of an international logistics company said: “In Qingdao Port, the price of a second-hand 40-foot container in previous years was about US$2,000. On November 27 this year, the price rose to US$2,850; by November 30, the price of a second-hand container rose to US$3,200. ; On December 3, it rose to 3,400 US dollars again, almost one day."
According to data from the freight benchmark company Xeneta, the current average price of short-term market contracts in Asia and Europe for three months or less is 200% higher than a year ago, at $4,831 per 40 feet. But from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by an astonishing 390.5%.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings told reporters: “As the volume of goods continues to rise, the demand for export containers has greatly increased, and the domestic guarantee for container use has become tighter. However, the turnover of overseas empty containers has generally slowed due to the continuous impact of the epidemic situation in various places. Transfer back to China to meet demand."
"The whole industry is looking for boxes everywhere, and some merchants are beginning to hoard boxes to speculate on prices." In the eyes of industry insiders, the current situation of foreign trade companies being difficult to find a box is not only because of the slow operation of containers, but also because of the reduction of some routes. .
"There are few ship lines, and most of the cabinets shipped abroad can't return. This is the root cause of the skyrocketing price of the domestic container transportation market." Liu Wang explained to the reporter: "It's not that foreign cabinets are not coming back. It is the epidemic situation abroad. The impact is that the workers do not go to work and the speed of transportation is relatively slow. Now everyone is sharing the warehouse."
According to Liu Wang, the container ships now and the alliance has been formed since last year. Originally, it used its own ships to transport the goods. Now four or five shipowners or five or six companies form an alliance, and use the same ship. warehouse. "It turns out that there may be several shipping companies arranging several shifts to go to sea in a week. Once we formed an alliance, the shifts decreased in a week. This started last year. Now shipping companies often stop once a week, which objectively leads to a shortage of ships. ."
A person in charge of the Shanghai Maritime Logistics Company introduced to a reporter from the Securities Daily: "At present, the proportion of import and export trade by sea is imbalanced. There are few boxes coming in and many boxes going out . In addition, China has quickly prevented and controlled the epidemic, and overseas orders have continued to surge. , Increasing the pressure on shipping. Overseas, affected by the epidemic, the operation cycle of containers shipped out due to business environment problems has been lengthened, the arrival process has increased, and the operation efficiency has slowed and lengthened the circulation cycle. Due to the early outbreak of the epidemic, major shipping The company has reduced many routes, resulting in uneven distribution of global container volumes."
The industry believes that with the increase in market demand, the current effective capacity is obviously insufficient.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO Shipping Holdings revealed to the reporter: "As the global epidemic prevention and control has become normalized, global trade has been rapidly repaired since the third quarter of this year, and the demand in the container shipping market has recovered beyond expectations. In order to meet the growth of transportation demand, market capacity has gradually returned to normal. , The idle capacity has dropped rapidly from the record high of more than 2.7 million TEU (international standard unit units) in May this year. At present , there is no airworthy effective capacity to rent in the market. "
In the context of uneven global container deployment, container prices on different routes have also risen at different rates.
"Since November, the price of the U.S. line has increased by about four times compared with the beginning of the year, and the European line has risen to the highest price last year. From the perspective of the distribution of China’s export routes, the U.S. container accounts for 25%, Europe accounts for 25%, and Southeast Asia , Northeast Asia adds up to 50%, the US route is now hard to find a box is the norm, followed by the European route, freight is also very tight. The price of Malaysia route in Southeast Asia has also doubled recently." The person in charge of the aforementioned logistics company added.
Facing the increase in demand for containers, the above-mentioned relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings stated: “The company will strengthen scientific forecasts for container use, actively coordinate dual-brand superior resources, and make every effort to guarantee the use of containers during peak seasons. On the one hand, internally tap the potential and accelerate overseas heavy container Demolition speed, increase empty container callback domestic and Far East efforts to promote container turnover; on the other hand, close communication with container manufacturers and container leasing companies to seek more container sources. Through two-pronged and multiple measures, to guarantee domestic container use Provide effective assistance and try our best to meet the shipping needs of customers."
In order to meet the development needs of the container market, SIPG has launched a number of effective measures to promote container volume growth in response to the market. At the beginning of this year, the Group launched seven special measures for container growth, through the implementation of preferential international transit loading and unloading fees, extension of the international transit container storage exemption period, and sea-rail intermodal customs clearance container preferential projects. In the first half of the year, the Group established three major container areas: Yangshan, Outer Harbor, and Domestic Trade, striving to achieve overall planning and agglomeration effects.
According to SIPG’s official announcement, in October, each terminal of Shanghai Port set a new record. The monthly throughput of Shengdong Company exceeded 820,000 TEUs for the first time. Among them, 33068 TEUs and 12899.75 TEUs were updated on October 25. Class record; Guandong Company broke through 720,000 TEU, setting a new record again.
• How long can the "shortage of containers" last? What is the future prospect of the shipping industry?
"The first half of the year was affected by the new crown epidemic. Ports and shipping fields did suffer a relatively large negative impact, so the first half of the year was basically a negative growth state. In the second half of the year, especially after the third quarter, normal operations resumed to a certain extent, plus China The epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, and most of the economic activities have been resumed first. Therefore, compared with the first half of the year, there is indeed a big sign of a bottoming out." said Liu Dian, a research assistant at the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China.
In the first two months of this year, my country's foreign trade imports and exports dropped significantly. According to China Customs data, from January to February 2020, my country's total import and export value of goods trade was 4.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%; imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%.
Although the current domestic epidemic situation is under control, the global epidemic is breaking out, and exports are still under certain impact.
It can be said that in the first half of this year, people in the shipping industry were mainly pessimistic about my country's export prospects. In the second half of the year, the industry was generally optimistic about the future development of the shipping industry.
Insiders analyzed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that this round of container freight price increases began in the middle of this year. At that time, after the domestic epidemic was brought under control, foreign countries were greatly affected by the epidemic, and many overseas orders were transferred to the domestic market. When shipping from China, the shipping price began to rise. According to Liu Wang's prediction, this round of price increases will continue until the first quarter of next year.
An unnamed person in charge of maritime logistics said: "As the epidemic stabilizes, this hot market will continue into the first half of next year, or even longer."
"This wave of increase in container shipping prices has driven the adjustment of the entire foreign trade sector, breaking the laws of the past decades in the industry. Not only ocean freight, air freight and land transportation have different levels of influence and changes. The epidemic has accelerated the entire large trade sector. The consolidation and adjustment of the shipping sector will gradually move towards intensive development. Shipping companies have become monopolistic after years of integration and mergers. The aviation sector and the land transport sector are also rapidly integrated, and a new chapter will emerge in the future foreign trade field." People say so.
According to Huang Tianhua, chairman of the China Container Industry Association and vice president of CIMC, predicted that the shortage of containers may continue for about six months . He said: "We have monitored that if there are 500,000 new containers in China normally, they are in a completely healthy state if they are ready for use in the docks or ports, but the current tighter inventory is about 300,000 new containers. I expect it to be possible. In the next three months to six months, this slightly tense balance will continue. This is probably a trend in the current industry."
Although the industry is generally optimistic about the shipping industry, Liu Dian believes that the total global trade volume in 2020 will still drop a certain percentage from the previous year, but from the perspective of the shipping industry, it will definitely be from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. There will be a better market.
Liu Dian said: “Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the uncertainties slowed down in the second half of the year, and the overall trend showed a relatively large rebound. Therefore, from a macro perspective, global international trade has rebounded to a certain extent. China is the first to resume the rebound led by the next."
" At present, the shipping industry is mainly affected by three factors :
Di Yi factor is that the global economy is expected to have a recovery, so after the third quarter, international trade has been warmer, led the field of shipping industry as a whole for the better, whether it is from container or just have some trade from the sea to pick up case .
The second factor is that with the signing of the RCEP agreement, a series of regional economic integration cooperation relations in East Asia and Southeast Asia will improve, which will benefit the import and export trade of China and related countries.
The third factor is that although the epidemic has not been eliminated on a global scale, all countries are in short supply, such as medical supplies, production supplies, and living supplies. China is now the world's largest trade surplus country. Under such circumstances, China's export trade, including part of its import trade, will also get a relatively large rebound in demand, and at the same time promote the rise of a series of shipping-related industry indexes in related fields, including the container shipping index. "Liu Dian said.
my country is the largest producer, exporter and consumer of toys. At the beginning of this year, affected by the epidemic, Guangdong toy companies lost a large number of foreign orders. The pressure on the industry was huge. Since the second half of the year, the entire industry has continued to pick up, and some companies even have "exports". The situation of “explosive orders”.
But the good and the bad are mixed. Due to the shortage of containers, a large backlog of goods has caused difficulties in delivery. Thousands of containers filled with toys ordered by overseas toy retailers before Christmas are still stuck in ports!
Hot toy export manufacturers' orders will be scheduled until March next year
In a building block factory, the person in charge told reporters that under the epidemic this year, their sales have not fallen but increased. The 5000 square meter factory has been transformed into fully automated production. In the past, more than 200 workers were required to work at the same time, but now they have replaced it. 32 robots work overtime 24 hours a day .
In this toy company in Chenghai District, Shantou City, Guangdong, the reporter saw a busy scene on the production line. The person in charge said that the epidemic did have some impact on them at the beginning of the year, but since April and May, the order volume began to rise. At present, they are running at full power and producing 24 hours a day, but they still cannot meet the needs of overseas customers, and some products are "out of stock".
The person in charge of another toy company that mainly sells overseas said that they did not anticipate the rapid recovery of orders. Due to the shortage of manpower, this year's orders could not be delivered in time for the year before, and new orders for next year are still being found. .
According to data provided by the China Toys and Baby Products Association, due to the impact of the epidemic, the monthly export growth rate of Chinese traditional toys was negative from January to June this year. Starting from July, the monthly export growth rate has turned negative to positive, reaching 21.1%, exports from January to October reached 26.36 billion US dollars, and the cumulative growth rate turned negative to positive, reaching 1.4%. In November, it maintained sustained growth, with exports of 3.89 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 50.8% year-on-year, the largest single-month increase since this year.
Busy production and delivery toy manufacturers are mixed
Toy exports continued to rise, and toy factories received soft orders. At the same time, manufacturers had new troubles.
The reporter saw in a toy factory in Dongguan, Guangdong that there were many products to be shipped stacked in the factory, and only one truck was being loaded. The person in charge said that their customers are mainly large supermarkets and brand toy factories in Europe and the United States. They had to load 30 or 40 cars a day during the peak period. However, the current shortage of containers and the continuous increase in order volume, they are busy with production and worry about delivery. .
Guangdong has a large number of toy companies, with production capacity accounting for more than 70% of the country. The reporter found during a visit to many toy factories in Guangdong that the current export-oriented companies have encountered a shortage of containers. "Lack of containers" is the most common discussion among toy owners. topic. Yuan Moumou is the warehouse supervisor of a toy factory. When the reporter followed him to the warehouse, he found that a large amount of inventory was waiting to be shipped, and even the products produced in April had not been shipped.
The reporter learned during the interview that the current foreign trade toy factories are experiencing varying degrees of product backlog, and the uncertainty of overseas epidemics has slowed the circulation cycle of containers. The Jumbo Group, the largest toy retailer in Greece, said recently that due to the new crown epidemic, thousands of containers full of toys ordered by them in the months before Christmas are still stranded in the port.
Significant increase in export orders from auto parts factories! Orders skyrocketed by 100%, and orders are scheduled until April next year!
Beginning in September this year, the export value of auto parts has reached a new high for three consecutive months. In November, the export of auto parts increased by 41.9% year-on-year. According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in November this year, the export value of auto parts was 5.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.8% month-on-month and 41.9% year-on-year.
The export orders of auto parts factories have increased greatly, and the full production capacity is too late to ship! A person in charge of a wheel production plant in Jinhua, Zhejiang said that all production lines of the plant are operating at full capacity. Due to the substantial increase in export orders this year, one plant is still too busy to produce. Starting from the second half of the year, export orders have grown relatively fast. In the third quarter, compared with the same period last year, it increased by about 50%. In the fourth quarter, we increased by about 100%.
In another factory in Taizhou, Zhejiang that produces automobile shock absorbers, workers are working overtime and production is busy. The person in charge of the company told reporters that the orders received so far have been scheduled to April next year. In the early stage of the epidemic, in March, April and May, our orders were reduced by a certain percentage compared to 2019. Since July, the proportion of orders received has increased by nearly 126%. After August and September, it has increased by about 50% every month.
During the interview, container trucks continued to come to the factory to pick up goods. There were many products waiting to be shipped on both sides of the roads of the factory. The warehouse was also full. Due to the large number of orders this year and the shortage of export containers, many products have not had time to ship.
Yang Fudong, Special Assistant to the Secretary-General of the After-sales Parts Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that more than 70% of China's auto parts exports are used in the independent after-sales market of automobiles. The automotive after-sales market has grown very fast in recent years. The increase in car ownership and the increase in car service life will drive the demand for auto parts. The longer the service life of the car, the faster the replacement frequency of auto parts.
If shippers and logistics companies hope that the ultra-high shipping container prices will fall in the New Year, then they may be disappointed.
Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, revealed at a press conference that global logistics giants and container liner companies expect that the chaotic market, lack of berths, and container shortages, etc., will still be available by 2021. Will last for a while.
In addition, Tim Scharwath, CEO of freight forwarding giant DHL Global Freight Forwarding, also attended the meeting. What the two CEOs have in common is that they agree that 2020 is characterized by great unpredictability, such as promising customers whether their goods will reach their destinations on time, which is very unpredictable.
As time goes by and the year is coming to an end, shippers have to pay more and more freight to ship the goods. This development is largely due to the sharp increase in demand month by month since July. For example, it is not uncommon to have to pay US$5,000 for shipping containers from Hong Kong to New York.
▍It will not stabilize until the second half of 2021
The two executives agreed that after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia this spring, the very special environment has caused a historic imbalance between supply and demand. They also believe that the shipping market will not stabilize for the time being.
Scharwath said: "As for shipping, I think we must enter the second half of 2021 before we see the market stabilize again. The first quarter will definitely be affected, and so will the second quarter."
"We will have to wait and see what happens, because everything is difficult to predict. As a large company, we usually make plans for 3 to 5 years. Now, we are making plans for 3 months."
Inadequate ship capacity and insufficient containers have serious consequences for the industry’s supply chain. In addition to customer dishonesty and record high freight rates, a recent survey conducted by Sea-Intelligence shows that only half of the ships can reach their destinations on time .
▍Shipping companies strengthen management and control
Mainly affected by the new crown epidemic, container shipping companies’ performance in the second quarter was weak, but their profits have soared to record levels since the summer. However, the quality of service is lacking, and container shipping companies have been stating for months that these conditions are beyond the scope that they can change.
On the one hand, they do not have more ships to deploy, on the other hand, they cannot redistribute the containers to the required ports. In addition to other reasons, customers do not return the goods.
Currently, Asia in particular is suffering from a shortage of containers because many containers are in the United States. According to a Bloomberg report, it may also be because of port congestion that these containers cannot be unloaded at US ports. This is the case with 20 container ships currently near the Port of Long Beach.
Therefore, at the beginning of December, CMA CGM, Maersk and ONE had to refuse to leave the booking outside of Asia, the reason is very simple, because there is no extra space on board.
Hapag-Lloyd, led by Habben Jansen, also benefited from the increase in freight rates in recent months. Therefore, the shipping company has twice raised its full-year 2020 profit forecast, and the company currently expects its operating results to exceed US$2.7 billion.
However, the CEO said that it is usually because of an oversupply of ships, and 10 years after the industry has lost billions of dollars, it is time for container shipping companies to start making money.
▍Strong performance in the second quarter of next year
Until recently, shipping companies and container manufacturers also predicted that the current shortage of containers will be resolved after the Chinese New Year in February, which will restore the market to a more normal state. But Habben Jansen no longer believes this prediction is correct.
"This year’s development is beyond everyone’s expectations. Because of the introduction of economic stimulus measures, people still have money on hand, and most of the money has been spent on container cargo. Many signs indicate that the strong market we see after the Spring Festival has passed. It will appear and will continue into the second quarter."
Habben Jansen pointed out that the current market congestion will take some time to resolve.
Ocean freight has been very developed in the 21st century. How to choose the container used in freight transportation ? The following editor will analyze it.
The emergence of containers is for the safety of the container and the ship, but before packing, it is necessary to know the volume, nature, type, and shape of the goods to choose a suitable container. Of course, some goods cannot be transported, and also The cargo will be damaged due to the wrong container.
As for how to choose the right container for the goods, let's talk about them one by one below.
How to choose the container used in sea freight ?
You can choose sundries containers for valuables and cleaning items; ventilated containers for perishables and dirty goods; refrigerated containers for refrigerated and dangerous goods; livestock (animal) containers for animals and plants; platform containers for bulky items, and bulk The cargo can choose bulk containers.
When we are shipping, it is very important to know how to choose the shipping container, and it is also to ensure the safe arrival of the goods to the destination.
When the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, telecommuting and home isolation have become the norm. The suspension of offline transactions in the past has accelerated the shift of international trade to online. In this context, China's foreign trade exports have accelerated recovery, especially the rapid increase in cross-border e-commerce orders.
Recently, the "home economy" related products represented by furniture, home appliances, toys, and daily necessities have continued to explode. China’s small commodity export orders have surged, and many manufacturers’ orders have already been scheduled to 2021.
Correspondingly, due to the imbalance of China's import and export trade, container shipping export freight rates remain high, and containers are "difficult to find". These problems have become more prominent under the stimulation of huge transportation demand.
The explosive growth of export orders and thorny transportation problems have put Chinese exporters facing tremendous pressure and challenges.
Export orders soared, shipping costs soared
"This time of the year is the peak season. In previous years, the factory was very busy and the number of offline purchases was countless. This year, affected by the epidemic, almost all of them have adopted online ordering." Wan Rufang, general manager of Zhejiang Fengfan Stainless Steel Products Co., Ltd., told China A reporter from Aviation Weekly said.
Ju Jianshuang, general manager of Shanghai Jiesheng Furniture Co., Ltd. also introduced: "Compared with last year, this year our company's export orders have increased by about 10%."
But the headache for these exporters is that although the volume of export orders has exploded, their profits have not risen but fallen. The main reason is that the increase in shipping costs is even more alarming.
At the beginning of this year, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic caused most Chinese companies to stop work and production, leading to the cancellation of many orders and a decline in freight volume. Shipping companies have also adopted measures such as reducing capacity and reducing voyage density in response to market changes. However, shortly afterwards, the epidemic in China was effectively controlled, and companies gradually resumed work and production, exports basically recovered, and freight volumes rebounded rapidly.
However, judging from the market reaction, the shipping company's capacity increase did not match the cargo volume, which caused the freight rate to rise all the way. The direct reason for the recent sharp increase in freight rates is that the overseas epidemic has affected the efficiency of port loading and unloading. At the same time, the logistics turnover is not smooth, the shortage of containers is very prominent, and the supply and demand are seriously mismatched. For this reason, shipping companies have begun to levy congestion surcharges, peak season surcharges, and lack of containers surcharges.
Latest SCFI data
According to the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 18, the market price of Shanghai’s exports to European basic ports (including maritime surcharges) was US$3,124/TEU, an increase of 6.0% from a week ago. Compared with the US$1,508/TEU a month ago, it has doubled.
The price of US$3,124/TEU on the Asia-Europe route is the highest ever since SCFI was released in 2009.
During the same period, the market prices (including shipping surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to basic ports in the West and East of the United States were 3,900 US dollars/FEU and 4874 US dollars/FEU, which were also at historical highs.
Cai Jiaxiang, vice chairman of the China Association of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Enterprises, said bluntly: "Sometimes, the sum of various surcharges even exceeds the freight."
Exporters' profit shrinking affects foreign trade stability in the long term
It is understood that about 80% to 90% of foreign trade export enterprises in China sign the FOB clause in the export contract, that is, the buyer pays for the freight.
Cai Jiaxiang analyzed: "In a short period of time, because Chinese exporters who sign FOB clauses will pay the freight by the buyer, it will not be greatly affected in the early stage of the price increase. But from a long-term perspective, if the freight continues to rise, the export The business is bound to be affected to a certain extent."
He took the US importer as an example. If the buyer needs to pay up to 5,000 US dollars in freight per box for a long time, the buyer's import cost will be greatly increased, and the Chinese exporters may be required to share the high freight.
Even if the Chinese exporters who sign the FOB clause do not need to bear the ocean freight, they still have to pay for the transportation costs of the goods from the factory to the dock. At present, affected by the lack of containers, exporters can only obtain empty containers by waiting for empty containers or raising the price. In order to ensure shipments, most exporters will choose to increase the price to pick up the box, which also increases the export cost of Chinese exporters.
More importantly, the continued high freight rates will also affect the purchasing power of overseas consumers. Due to the increase in costs and the substitutability of some commodities, importers may consider whether to use substitutes when choosing commodities.
Wan Rufang said: “Our company’s order volume from August to October was relatively large. Compared with March to June, it has doubled. But starting from November, some countries have adopted closed measures and freight Excessively high, to a large extent affect the customer's purchase volume."
On the other hand, the Chinese exporters who signed the CIF clauses, as they directly bear the export freight, have a deeper understanding of the pain points of high freight, and it has effectively affected their own profits.
Ju Jianshuang's company faced this situation. He reluctantly said: "Our company is mainly based on signing CIF contract terms. In most cases, the ocean freight of exported goods is borne by us. The recent rapid increase in freight has caused the company's costs to rise sharply, and the monthly profit is about reduced. 600,000 yuan."
Ju Jianshuang said that the high freight rates are too burdensome for companies that "small profits but quicker sales" and mainly out-of-stock volume. "We will consider negotiating with customers to postpone shipments or raise prices appropriately. But the main solution is to give up some profits by the company itself to maintain normal operations."
He believes that a balance should be maintained between production companies and transportation companies to ensure the living space of both parties.
However, even in the current era of "hard to find a box" and frequent freight charges, seaborne export is still the first choice for Chinese exporters.
There are two main reasons for this. One is the export destinations of some exporters, such as the United States, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore and other countries. These destinations cannot deliver goods by means of transportation other than sea or air, and air transportation has certain transportation restrictions and the freight rate is too high. , Most exporters will not consider; second, although shipping costs have risen sharply, they are still lower than road, rail, air and other transportation methods. At the same time, shipping has greater advantages in capacity and can better meet the needs of Chinese exporters.
Cai Jiaxiang further explained: "In the early days, shipping goods to Europe via the China-Europe Express train cost about US$10,000 per TEU. At present, although the freight rate of the China-Europe Express train has been lowered to US$7,000-8,000 per TEU, the price is still higher than that of ocean freight. From the perspective of many Chinese exporters, price is more important than speed."
Chinese and U.S. regulators frequently call for exporters to restore capacity
In response to the current difficulties faced by Chinese exporters, the Ministry of Commerce of China has paid close attention and responded publicly.
Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a recent press conference that many countries around the world are facing similar problems in foreign trade logistics due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The mismatch between supply and demand of capacity is the direct cause of the increase in freight rates. Factors such as poor container turnover have indirectly pushed up shipping costs and reduced logistics efficiency.
Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce
He further emphasized: "The Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to increase capacity allocation, support accelerated container return transportation, improve operational efficiency, and support container manufacturing enterprises to expand production capacity. At the same time, it will increase market supervision and strive to stabilize market prices. Provide strong logistics support for the stable development of foreign trade."
Prior to this, the regulatory authorities of China, the United States and other countries have also stated that they will pay close attention to issues such as rising freight rates in the shipping market.
In September of this year, the Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China interviewed all shipping companies operating China-US liner routes, emphasizing that it will strengthen the supervision of China-US routes, requiring that the capacity, routes and schedules must be filed, and freight and all surcharges must be regulated. reasonable.
Also in September, the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) also issued a warning to shipping companies that it would crack down on potential violations of competition laws. Soon after, FMC also announced the toughest measures to increase the supervision of the three major shipping alliances in response to issues such as freight and demurrage. It is required that shipping alliances must submit specific trade data to FMC every month, whereas previously it was only required to submit every quarter.
In this regard, Cai Jiaxiang said that the European and American regulatory policies are relatively timely. The EU has the most stringent anti-monopoly issues, and the United States is not inferior. These areas have achieved certain results in freight control, and prices are relatively stable.
Regarding the domestic export trade market, Cai Jiaxiang believes that “restoring the original normal capacity and flight density is the top priority to solve the problem.”
He further stated that the voice of the Ministry of Commerce can improve the current market conditions to a certain extent, but it still needs to increase efforts. "Call on the Ministry of Transport to interview shipping companies to restore normal capacity and flight density, and the State Administration for Market Supervision and Administration will use anti-monopoly laws reasonably and adopt legal weapons to cut the root cause of shipping problems." Cai Jiaxiang said.
