Russian ships under sanctions change flags in large numbers

In March, an unusually high number of ships abandoned their Russian flags and re-registered with countries such as the Marshall Islands and St. Kitts, according to data provided by maritime risk consultancy Windward AI.

Russian ships in trouble

A total of 18 ships were re-flagged last month, according to Windward, more than three times the normal rate of 5.8. Five of the ships were linked to Russian ownership. Among them are 11 ships from the same fleet, all of which have been changed to the Marshall Islands flag, and three tankers have been changed to the flag of St. Kitts and Nevis.

Five of the 18 ships that changed flags had direct links to Russian owners. The level of Russian re-flagging in March was more than three times the average, the first time since January 2020 that the monthly number of re-flagging reached double digits.

The U.S., U.K. and other allies have stepped up sanctions on Russia due to the Russian-Ukrainian war that began in late February. U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order on March 8 banning imports of Russian oil and gas, and Britain also said it would phase out oil imports by the end of the year. In addition, several countries have banned Russian ships from entering their ports.

From yachts as small as multi-million dollar yachts to oil tankers, Russian ships are already in trouble. The identification and position transmission system AIS, which was supposed to be on all the time at sea, has also been turned off because it avoids detection but poses a risk to maritime safety.

But not all flag changes are necessarily sanctions evasion. The trend could also include "honest businessmen trying to continue business as usual without the potential obstacles that the Russian flag could pose for them," the report said.

Gur Sender, product manager at Windward, said foreign companies have different motivations for changing the flag of Russia, some want their ships to be able to operate around the world without restrictions, and that sea freight is an important method of transporting goods, but others are for ethical reasons.

Changes to flags are not necessarily abnormal, and are sometimes due to changes in ownership or area of ​​operation, Sender said. Singapore will have an average of 17 flag changes per month in 2021, while Japan will have an average of 5 flag changes per month this year. But their levels are all stable without big fluctuations.

A large number of Russian flag switches have appeared in other unusual activities, such as Russian tankers shutting down their tracking systems. Both tactics were included in a May 2020 U.S. Treasury Department bulletin that listed seven categories of fraudulent shipping practices.

"Bad actors may forge the flags of their vessels to conceal illegal trade. They may also repeatedly register ('jump the flag') with a new flag state to avoid detection," the advisory warned.

Seaspan plans to expand investment in container ships.

 

In the past two years, the container shipping market has been hot. Although Seaspan, as the world's largest independent container ship owner, could have sat down and reveled in the high income, sufficient customers and long-term leases, due to the rapid development of the shipping industry, the The company still plans to expand its investment in container ships.

The Vancouver-based, Hong Kong-registered, Atlas Corporation-owned company has been growing at a record pace over the past year and a half. Its latest financial statements for 2021 confirmed that the company's cash flow was very solid, with a profit of $400 million in 2021, double the previous year. The leasing business added 70 newbuildings, or about 0.9 million TEU, and new contracts generated total cash flow of up to $12.9 billion.

Like the big liner companies, Seaspan is building a very strong capital pool. There is no doubt that investing in new projects is very easy for Seaspan. If a bank needs it to guarantee a loan, Seaspan can easily find a recent lease with a major liner company, which can last up to 18 years.

That said, Seaspan will still have an exceptionally strong funding position until 2040, even if the hot container market cools one day.

Seaspan and its shareholders want uninterrupted returns through continuous investment like a shipping company. Many large liner companies use their profits to invest in logistics assets. For example, Maersk bought LF, MSC bought Bolloré's African business, and CMA CGM bought Ceva.

But considering that the customers of these profiteers are now helpless to pay sky-high freight costs and endure long delays, in this case, shipping companies rely on their special tax incentives and use their high profits to acquire Another industry has exacerbated the negative sentiment in some parts of the supply chain market to a certain extent. Seaspan needs to study how to play a long-term "ship owner and operator" in the container shipping industry. business to best serve customers.

The issue has been discussed within the company for some time, but according to COO Torsten Pedersen, there is no final conclusion yet. But in general, the company aims to further strengthen its position in global value chains, including beyond 2025.

Ensuring a role in decarbonisation may be an option, but it may also be other activities, and opportunities abound in the chaotic container market.

“The industry is currently undergoing major changes, and the competitive environment is very different from a few years ago. Some links may be squeezed in the new structure, and there will be many strategic moves and counter-attacks in the industry. Huge market changes can provide many creative opportunities, we Think it's an exciting challenge."

"It's a good thing that Seaspan has a strong financial position" amid the boom in the container market, Pedersen said. Seaspan is currently achieving its stated goals. The company has struck deals with operators to build around 70 new ships over the next two or three years.

Concluding comments on the shipping industry, he said: "We have strong partners and long-term contracts, and our partner yards have a long history of shipbuilding. This is an industry that will be heavily funded in the next few years and the landscape is changing."

Subtle changes in supply and demand, freight rates drop one after another

Supply and demand conditions improved, and freight rates continued to fall. There are many uncertain factors, and the future trend is still unclear.
Recently, the freight rates of major routes in the container shipping market have changed the pace of rising and have continued to decline in the past month. Even so, since the high freight rate in the fourth quarter of last year continued to the first quarter of this year, the current freight rate is still much higher than the same period last year.

Multi-route freight rates drop

According to Drewry data, as of March 17, the World Containerized Freight Index (WCI) was US$8,832.23/FEU, down 3.8% month-on-month and still up 79% compared with the same period in 2021.

In terms of routes, the Shanghai-Rotterdam spot freight rate was US$12,221/FEU, down 4% month-on-month; the Shanghai-Genoa spot freight rate was US$12,619/FEU, up 1% month-on-month; the Shanghai-Los Angeles spot freight rate was US$10,154 /FEU, down 7% month-on-month; Shanghai-New York spot freight rate was US$12,276/FEU, down 5% month-on-month.

On March 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 3301.10 points, down 1.9% from the previous month. Among them, the freight index of European routes decreased by 1.9% month-on-month, the freight index of Mediterranean routes decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, the freight index of US-West routes decreased by 3.8% month-on-month, and the freight index of US-East routes increased by 2.1% month-on-month.

According to the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) released by the Ningbo Shipping Exchange, as of March 18, the composite index closed at 3,613.9 points, a month-on-month decline for 11 consecutive weeks, down 15.3% from the high level at the end of December 2021, and from the end of February. It fell 8.4%.

Judging from the situation of different routes since the end of February, the freight index of the South America east route decreased by 19.3%, the freight index of the South American west route decreased by 16.7%, the freight index of the Middle East route decreased by 17.6%, the India-Pakistan route decreased by 13.7%, and the freight index of the European route decreased by 13.7%. The price index fell 11.7%, the most significant decline. The average market price of the 40-foot TEU after the price increase in the Europe, South America East, South America West and America West routes fell by more than US$1,500/FEU, and the freight rate fell the most. It can be seen that, in the past month, although the freight rates of some routes remained flat or increased slightly month-on-month, in general, they showed a downward trend.

As far as the single-day freight rate is concerned, in early March, the freight rate trend showed a clear inflection point.

According to Xeneta data, recently, freight rates from China to Europe suffered the largest one-day drop since February 2020. On March 1, the average spot rate on the route fell by nearly $500/FEU to $13,340/FEU. This is the first time since September 2021 that freight rates on this route are below $13,500/FEU.

However, the agency also pointed out that the current freight rates on the Asia-Europe route are still at a very high level compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak. In 2018-2020, the average spot freight rate on this route was only US$1,500/FEU.

Based on this, Zheng Jingwen, a senior analyst at the International Shipping Research Institute of the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from China Shipping Weekly that according to the trend of previous years, the freight rate will indeed drop slightly and briefly in the first quarter.

Qian Hanglu, an industry analyst at Ningbo Shipping Exchange, also said: "This is mainly due to the traditional off-season, which makes the overall freight rate of the container shipping market continue to decline from mid-January to late March. For example, in 2019 In 2021 and 2021, the NCFI composite index has experienced a 10-week decline, with a cumulative decline of 25.7% and 19.4%, respectively."

Huiyang Shipping’s first-quarter profit tripled year-on-year

The crisis in Russia and Ukraine pushed up the freight rate of bulk carriers, and the performance of Huiyang Shipping in March and the first quarter both hit record highs.

On April 6, Huiyang Shipping announced its financial report. The revenue in March was NT$2.203 billion (approximately RMB 486 million), and the self-settled operating profit was NT$1.139 billion (approximately RMB 251 million). The monthly pre-tax profit was NT$1.175 billion (approximately RMB 259 million).

The financial report shows that in the first quarter, Huiyang Shipping’s revenue was NT$5.754 billion (approximately RMB 1.269 billion), and its pre-tax profit was NT$2.777 billion (approximately RMB 612 million), three times that of the same period last year. , a record high for the same period of the previous year, with an average operating profit rate of 48%.

Huiyang Shipping said that the global dry bulk shipping market is still affected by the crisis in Russia and Ukraine. At present, due to the surge in oil prices and the transfer of raw material importing countries to other countries for procurement, the voyage has increased. These factors may increase the freight rate. However, whether the demand for raw materials is It can be fully supplemented by other regions, and the impact of subsequent economic sanctions by various countries still needs to be continuously observed.

On the other hand, the epidemic in mainland China heated up again in late March, and the first-tier cities along the coast were shut down due to epidemic prevention, resulting in a slight decline in the market volume. However, Huiyang Shipping believes that this is a short-term impact, and there is a possibility of demand recovery sex.

In terms of fleet planning, Huiyang Shipping received the 37,800-dwt handy-sized high-specification energy-saving and environmentally friendly bulk carrier "Bunun Treasure" delivered by Imabari Shipbuilding in Japan at the end of March, and has signed a stable charter. Up to now, the company's fleet operates 139 ships, with an average age of 7 years. The fleet size and the proportion of energy-saving ships are in a leading position in the industry.

Looking forward to 2022, Huiyang Shipping still maintains an optimistic attitude. Due to the rising freight market and raw material prices in recent years, the construction cost of bulk carriers has increased by about 30%-40% on average compared with the same period last year. The number of orders on hand for cargo ships is still low, and after the new environmental protection regulations hit the road in 2023, it is expected that the elimination of old ships will make the supply of capacity even tighter, and Huiyang Shipping maintains a consistent and stable ship purchase policy, which will give it a more competitive advantage.

Frontline and Belgian tanker owner Euronav announce merger

Frontline, the oil tanker subsidiary of Norwegian shipping king John Fredriksen, and Euronav, the Belgian tanker owner, announced the merger. The new owner with 146 tankers surpassed China's China Merchants Shipping to become the "Big Mac" in the global very large tanker (VLCC) market. .

If the merger materialises, the combined group will continue to operate under the Frontline name and will continue to operate in Belgium, Norway, the UK, Singapore, Greece and the US. The combined group will be headed by Mr. Hugo De Stoop as Chief Executive Officer, and the Board of Directors of the combined group is expected to consist of seven members, including three current members of the independent Euronav Supervisory Board, two nominated by Hemen Holding Limited (“Hemen”) and additional Two new independent directors. Frontline's largest shareholder, Hemen, and related companies with stakes in Euronav have pledged to back the potential deal.

The companies said the combination provides economies of scale that will facilitate improved fleet utilization and ease the transition to digitalisation of logistics and the adoption of low-carbon fuels for tankers.

"The merger will create the world's leading independent tanker operator," KBC Securities wrote in a note to clients, while warning that there was no guarantee that a final merger agreement would be reached.

The merger will create a world-leading independent tanker operator with a market capitalization of more than $4.2 billion, with a fleet of 69 VLCCs (including 9 newbuildings under construction) and 57 Suezmaxes, as well as 20 LR2/Afra type oil tanker. In the VLCC market, the combined fleet of the two companies accounts for about 8% of the market, which is enough to exceed the 54 ships (including 3 new ships under construction) of China Merchants Steamship, the world's largest VLCC shipowner.

The combined, expanded fleet will enable the new company to better serve customers globally. Furthermore, given rapid technological change, including digitization and the application of new low-carbon fuels, new companies will be able to mobilize more resources to address these challenges and energy transition opportunities.

Commenting on the merger, John Fredriksen said: "The combination of Frontline and Euronav will create a market leader in the tanker market, allowing the combined group to continue to deliver shareholder value in addition to substantial synergies. The new Frontline will be able to provide our of customers providing value-added services, increasing fleet utilization and revenue, which will benefit all stakeholders.”

It is understood that last year, John Fredriksen purchased a 5.5% stake in Euronav through a subsidiary company CK Limited, and bought 7.7 million shares through another subsidiary company FamatownFinance. After two rounds of operations, John Fredriksen held 19.8 million shares of Euronav, with a shareholding ratio of 9.8%, which immediately triggered market speculation about the merger.

The merger is still subject to transaction structure, confirmatory due diligence, the terms and conditions of the potential merger agreement, applicable board, shareholder, customer, lender and/or regulatory approvals, employee consultations and other customary closing conditions.

Frontline and Euronav are working to reach and finalize an appropriate transaction structure for a potential business combination. It is not yet ripe for the market to complete the merger, and there is no guarantee that the parties will reach a final agreement, and the completion of any transaction is subject to the satisfaction of many of the above conditions. Frontline and Euronav will keep all stakeholders informed of any future developments in accordance with applicable regulations.

McKinsey heralds bad news for shippers

Shippers must prepare for events in which the tight container market may not normalize until 2024, according to a new analysis by McKinsey & Company. But the consultancy told ShippingWatch that shipping rates could end up being 50% higher than pre-pandemic figures.

The container market has been strained since mid-2020 due to the huge demand for goods in the United States, port closures due to the pandemic, container shortages and extreme congestion at the world's largest and most important container ports.

The result of the tight market is the soaring of container freight rates. The revenue and profit of container shipping companies in the past two years have experienced historic growth. Last year, the total revenue of the top ten shipping companies exceeded 100 billion US dollars. The punctuality rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade.

Some shipper companies, which are customers of container shipping companies, have not stopped complaining about these situations for a long time, and they even believe that container shipping companies should be more strictly regulated.

But this recent McKinsey report throws cold water on shippers.

McKinsey, one of the world's largest management consulting firms, expressed its views on the current container shipping market in a report entitled "Navigating the current disruption in containerized logistics". A large number of new ships have been ordered to expand capacity, but the normalization of the container shipping industry may still be delayed until the first quarter. If the situation is worse, normalization of the market may take until after 2024.

McKinsey also noted that container freight rates will remain high for most of 2022, while disruptions to the container logistics supply chain will continue.

Steve Saxon, a McKinsey partner who is now a container market analyst based in McKinsey's Shenzhen office, said that if you asked us a few months ago for our views on the future of the container industry, we might also lean towards a positive (recovery) view. But right now, McKinsey is leaning more toward a pessimistic outlook -- bad news from a shipper's perspective.

McKinsey proposes four possibilities for the future development of the container shipping market.

In the most optimistic case, the container shipping market may return to normal in the third quarter of 2022. Normal freight volumes, normal capacity offers, and normal freight rates.

But McKinsey also said that the most optimistic scenario may not be possible.

Port Klang fire: 22 containers burned, 38 damaged

A severe fire broke out at the Westports terminal in Port Klang, Malaysia's main container port, with 22 containers burned and 38 damaged.

Port Klang Authority general manager K. Subramaniam said the fire started at 4.15pm (local time) on April 4. At around 4.45pm, the Port Police Control Centre (PPCC) received a call about a fire in the container yard.
After answering the call, the PPCC called the Fire and Rescue Department (FRD) from Port Klang, which deployed two fire trucks to extinguish the blaze shortly after.
It took firefighters 11 hours to put out the blaze, which was fully extinguished around 3 a.m. on April 5.

Subramaniam pointed out that the container holds general cargo and does not contain dangerous goods. Affected box contents include auto parts, cotton products, baby walkers, audio equipment and lubricants.

"At this time, we are unable to determine the extent of the damaged containers. All affected box operators will be notified in due course," Westports said in a statement.
"There was no damage to port equipment and infrastructure. We are also pleased to inform that there were no injuries or disruptions to our operations.
"We would like to thank everyone involved in helping us put out the fire, especially the FRDs from various stations."

While investigating the cause of the fire, Subramaniam said: "Other than the blockade of the fire area for investigation, the container cranes were not affected and other areas of the port were operating normally."

Selangor Fire and Rescue Department chief Norazam Khamis said the fire initially spread to eight containers, which were stacked in two rows by weight. Westports crews attempted to move other containers to prevent the fire from spreading.

Over 20 ships awaiting loading in Qatar port! Global LNG shortages worsen

The global LNG shortage has worsened, with the number of empty ships waiting to unload from Qatar, the world's top exporter, to the highest level in nearly a year.

As many as 21 LNG carriers are currently awaiting shipments off the coast of Qatar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF) pointed to the recent surge in empty ships waiting to be loaded, raising concerns that in the past few more than 20 vessels were waiting to be loaded at Qatari ports.

Bloomberg analysts believe there could be several reasons for the surge in empty ships, such as a technical problem at an LNG processing plant or upstream facilities reducing production, or Qatargas changing its maintenance schedule, but in this case it should be There won't be so many ships lined up to load because buyers are notified in advance.

Qatar’s LNG exports in February were well below the average for the same period over the past five years, and total LNG exports in March were estimated at 6.5 million tonnes, also lower than the same period in the previous two years.

The LNG ships have sailed back to Qatar after unloading in China, Japan, India and Italy, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Typically, Qatar ships most of its LNG to Asian markets at this time of year, so Pacific buyers will be more sensitive to any supply disruption than Atlantic buyers.

Qatargas has yet to comment. Energy data provider Kayrros said Qatar Gas' No. 6 LNG liquefaction and purification plant was closed for more than a month before reopening on March 20.

Global LNG shortages intensify as Qatar exports dwindle and buyers in Asia and Europe try to find alternative sources of LNG outside of Russia, tightening the market and any supply disruption or production cuts will push up spot LNG prices.

Qatar Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said Qatar will continue to supply LNG to Europe and will not transfer LNG to other customers. Still, he refused to impose sanctions on Russia, reiterating that a complete ban on Russian gas supplies to Europe was "practically impossible". Qatar supplies LNG to some European countries in the form of convertible contracts.

The container shipping market is in short supply, and the price of second-hand ships has skyrocketed

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the supply and demand of the container shipping market has been unbalanced, and the freight rate has skyrocketed. Shipping companies that are "not worried about money" have bought and leased them. The amount of scrap is almost zero.

According to Alphaliner data, container lines have gone on a spree to acquire more than 500 container ships in the second-hand ship market in the past 18 months. Among them, Mediterranean Shipping was the largest buyer, purchasing a total of 169 second-hand ships with a total capacity of 636,900 TEU; followed by CMA CGM, which purchased 62 ships with a total capacity of 207,000 TEU. Maersk Line only ranked third, purchasing 27 ships of 141,600 TEU. The fourth is Wan Hai Shipping, which purchased 23 ships of 139,700 TEU.

ALphaliner pointed out that at the beginning of the market recovery, the price of second-hand ships was still at a low level, which made it a better choice for container shipping companies to buy and lease. At the same time, many small non-operating ship owners (NOO) are struggling on the brink of bankruptcy due to years of low rental income, and it is difficult to resist the high prices offered by container shipping companies.

Currently in the second-hand ship market, container ship prices have soared to record highs. The hot sale situation has also made the scrapping of container ships almost zero, and the capacity in the charter market has plummeted by 1.6 million TEU.

At the same time, orders for new container ships also hit a record high last year. Clarkson's data shows that in 2021, the order volume of container ships will reach 569 ships of 4.3 million TEU, and the contract value is as high as 42.8 billion US dollars. This order level is even 29% higher than the previous record level of 3.3 million TEU in 2007. 3.5 times the average order volume in the 10 years ending in 2020.

Since 2022, there have been 124 new orders in the container ship market, with a total capacity of about 857,600 TEU. It is estimated that the order volume of container ships will remain at a high level after 2022.

The epidemic will not bring down Shanghai Port and Ningbo Zhoushan Port

Recently, the epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai has been in a severe period, and the infection rate has continued to rise. Shanghai Port cannot survive alone, and is making every effort to coordinate resources from all parties to keep the port open. On the other hand, many truck drivers were diagnosed in Ningbo, and the local government immediately introduced a policy of one nucleic acid per day for truck drivers to further tighten the prevention and control policy. As the two largest ports in the world, Shanghai Port will complete a container throughput of 47.3 million TEU in 2021, and Ningbo Zhoushan Port will complete a cargo throughput of 31.08 million TEU. These two ports account for nearly 40% of the national port container throughput. In this regard, the normal operation of the two ports is related to the smooth global supply chain, and the sensitive market remains highly concerned about this.

Recently, a screenshot of densely crowded ships in the waters near Shanghai circulated on the Internet. The screenshot was accompanied by a caption saying, "Hundreds of ocean-going freighters have been stranded in the open seas of Shanghai, and the supply chain is broken here."

The impact of this round of Shanghai epidemic on international shipping has also aroused high public attention.

On April 2, SIPG also responded to the news of "severe congestion in Shanghai Port": "We have noticed that some media have published false reports on the serious congestion in Shanghai Port, which mentioned that 'Shanghai's port is delayed. The situation is getting more and more serious', 'the number of ships waiting to be loaded and unloaded in Shanghai port has soared to more than 300 this week' and other unverified remarks and pictures, according to the internal data monitoring of Shanghai port, since February, Shanghai port terminal production and operation As usual, there is no congestion of container ships." SIPG further stated that there is absolutely no "congestion comparable to the port congestion in West America" ​​in Shanghai Port. The number of waiting ships is in single digits, and the average number of waiting days is normal.

Previously, it was believed that due to the severe epidemic situation in Shanghai, the transportation of import and export goods was also affected, and some ships calling at Shanghai Port may be diverted to Ningbo Zhoushan Port or Nanjing Port.

On April 6, the "Daily Economic News" reporter asked the relevant person in charge of Ningbo Port (601018.SH) to verify the above situation. The person in charge responded: "The company is now doing a good job of epidemic prevention and control in accordance with the requirements of the superior and the actual situation of the enterprise to ensure the continuous, stable and healthy development of port production. As for the ships that previously berthed at Shanghai Port, they will be moved to Ningbo Zhoushan Port. The situation is not obvious at the moment and we are monitoring it.”

On the same day, a person in charge of a shipping agency in charge of Ningbo also told reporters that from what he knew, Shanghai's port calls are relatively normal, and there has not been a large number of changes to Ningbo port.

At the same time, Ningbo Zhoushan Port had to face the problem of epidemic spillover. From April 4th to 5th, 6 of the 7 cases found in Ningbo City were road freight-related drivers and express service area staff, and one of them was in Beilun District; as a model of anti-epidemic, Ningbo Zhoushan The port quickly made a decision to close some container shipping bases in Beilun District, and organized truck drivers to conduct nucleic acid tests every 24 hours. For example, Ningbo Meidong Container Terminal Co., Ltd. issued a notice on April 3 that truck drivers entering the port area. A free nucleic acid test needs to be completed immediately before entering the port area; at the same time, for foreign vehicles, Ningbo City requires drivers to actively cooperate with nucleic acid testing and antigen testing at the high-speed bayonet. In addition, Ningbo has implemented closed management of staff in the city's expressway service areas, strictly implemented daily nucleic acid testing measures, and suspended refueling operations.

At present, Ningbo Zhoushan Port is still in normal operation as a whole, and the warehouses that were temporarily closed due to the detection of tight connections will also be unsealed from tomorrow. In addition to Ningbo City, two freight drivers in Shaoxing City were also found to be infected with the new crown. The freight drivers and passengers outside the city are required to perform nucleic acid tests every two days on the basis of implementing nucleic acid tests every two days, and each time they return to Shaoxing Expressway.

The port circle (ID: gangkouquan) believes that if the impact of the epidemic expands, the impact of the collection and distribution problem continues to expand, and the ports in the Yangtze River Delta region cannot handle the problem of transportation route configuration, which will be a heavy blow to the global supply chain. of. On the premise of "preventing imports from outside and preventing exports from inside", Shanghai should increase the capacity of waterway barges as soon as possible to transfer the pressure of road collection and distribution, while Ningbo Zhoushan Port must learn lessons and give priority to preventing the spread of the epidemic. The two ports will not be dragged down as the outside world fears, but for a period of time in the future, whether it is the cargo owner, the shipping company, or the port, it will be under the pressure of repeated epidemics.